if the u.s went to war with china who would win  admiral james stavridis was 16th supreme allied  

commander of nato and 12th dean of the fletcher  school of law and diplomacy at tufts university  

he spent the bulk of his operational career in  the pacific and as author of 2034 a novel of  

the next world war a great deal has been written  about the possibility of a war between the u.s and  

china it tends to be measured in theoretical terms  and much of the analysis centers on exactly when  

it might occur but the vital question is really  quite simple who would win of course no one really  

wins a major war but the best way to avoid having  to go to war at all is to convince your potential  

opponent that they almost certainly would be the  biggest loser the military balance between china  

and the united states is complicated and requires  thinking about budgets numbers of warships and  

aircraft geography alliance systems and technology  especially undersea capability cyber security and  

space let's start with dollars and yuan the u.s  defense budget is fairly transparent at least  

in terms of total dollars defense spending was  around 714 billion dollars in the 2020 fiscal year  

and is likely to increase to 733 billion in  2021 somewhat opaque china's defense spending  

is certainly smaller with this defense budget set  at 1.36 trillion yuan 212.6 billion dollars a 6.8  

increase from the previous year but china does not  have the high personnel costs of an all-volunteer  

force and their military activities are largely  focused on east asia not the very expensive global  

footprint of the u.s military and a significant  level of their spending does not appear on the  

public books overall in terms of resources the  us has an advantage but it is not as overwhelming  

as it appears in terms of simple numbers of  warships china is already leading the u.s roughly  

to 350-300 in combat vessels and the  chinese shipyards are pumping out  

new warships on a near-weekly basis especially  relatively low technology patrol missile boats  

corvettes and frigates still u.s ships are ton  for ton larger endowed with better offensive  

and defensive systems and manned by far more  experienced crews additionally the u.s has a  

very sophisticated network of command and  control capabilities to knit together its  

long-range aviation platforms alongside surface  warships and of course submarines when factoring  

in the tight geography of east asia i would say  slight advantage china in terms of pure numbers  

of platforms both sea and air with the u.s having  higher quality of assets geographically china  

enjoys a great advantage in a potential conflict  with the u.s and the south and east china seas  

notably china would be able to support its  warships logistically in terms of fuel and  

ammunition provide combat repair facilities nearby  and move sailors on and off their ships with ease  

for the united states lengthy supply and manpower  chains would bedevil u.s forces even allowing for  

the presence of u.s bases close by additionally  the string of artificial islands built by china  

throughout the south china sea would somewhat  balance the u.s bases in south korea japan and  

guam the u.s navy by the way does not refer to the  roughly 10 chinese islands as artificial islands  

rather they are thought of as unsinkable aircraft  carriers indeed a great deal of u.s tactical and  

strategic warfighting thinking is going into how  to neutralize those facilities with one thought  

being to deploy u.s marine special forces marine  raiders to destroy their offensive capability  

early in a fight while the u.s would try to make  up for its long logistic tail by engaging our  

allies geography is clearly a factor that favors  china how about alliances the u.s has long felt  

that its greatest comparative advantage over china  is its network of allies partners and friends  

around the world in asia that means strong support  from japan the third largest economy in the world  

australia very capable naval forces south korea  singapore and many others the u.s is also strongly  

cultivating india via the quad concept of aligning  it with the u.s japan and australia yet how much  

the u.s could count on such partners in the  face of a chinese attack is a growing question  

additionally china is increasingly taking a  page from the u.s and strengthening its systems  

of partnerships the belt and road initiative is  designed to do exactly that and the chinese are  

making inroads both in asia and the east coast of  africa most importantly beijing is consolidating  

its relationships with russia the two nations  frequently exercised together militarily  

iran china just announced a 400 billion investment  pakistan and the philippines president rodrigo  

duterte seems to favor china in many issues  over the u.s nominally a formal treaty ally  

overall the us allies are bigger richer and  have stronger militaries so an advantage for  

washington but the gap is closing finally and  most importantly victory in a u.s china war  

would be highly influenced by who has the best  technology in the key areas of undersea silencing  

of submarines numbers of military satellites in  space offensive and defensive cyber tools and  

unmanned vehicles the u.s still has the lead but  china is closing fast especially in artificial  

intelligence hypersonic cruise missiles cyber  and the emerging field of quantum computing  

the recently released national commission on  artificial intelligence is telling in this regard  

again slight but closing advantage to the  united states bottom line if i were the  

admiral commanding the u.s indo-pacific command  the leader for all american military forces in  

the pacific and indian oceans i would still want  the us hand of cards to play but as the duke of  

wellington said of the battle of waterloo a  fight with china would be at near-run thing  

and over the next decade that gap will close and  if the u.s does not respond we'll favor china  

that is why i set my recent novel 2034 a novel of  the next world war 10 to 15 years in the future  

those alarm bells are going off at the pacific  fleet headquarters in pearl harbor and watch  

for u.s strategic focus resources and advanced  technology to head west in the coming decade