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  • 00:00

    So the big question is there's a downturn without doubt. Look at the markets whether it's equities or debt or whatever downturn
    So the big question is there's a downturn without doubt. Look at the markets whether it's equities or debt or whatever downturn

  • 00:06

    is it affecting venture capital. And if so how. Well the big macro issues that we're facing in the public
    is it affecting venture capital. And if so how. Well the big macro issues that we're facing in the public

  • 00:15

    markets like inflation. Supply chain challenges and also things like the recent Supreme Court ruling that would affect EPA
    markets like inflation. Supply chain challenges and also things like the recent Supreme Court ruling that would affect EPA

  • 00:26

    regulations. All of those factors come into play for the public markets.
    regulations. All of those factors come into play for the public markets.

  • 00:32

    They also have implications in the private markets. However the private markets are very very different.
    They also have implications in the private markets. However the private markets are very very different.

  • 00:37

    So the private markets when you think of venture investors are looking at the medium term timeframe not like short day to day
    So the private markets when you think of venture investors are looking at the medium term timeframe not like short day to day

  • 00:45

    trading and immediate effects but more over a course of seven years for a series a level financing.
    trading and immediate effects but more over a course of seven years for a series a level financing.

  • 00:53

    And so there are it's it's a medium term kind of investor mentality that's happening.
    And so there are it's it's a medium term kind of investor mentality that's happening.

  • 00:59

    I think it's important to know that there is so much money that's been put out into venture capital over the last few years
    I think it's important to know that there is so much money that's been put out into venture capital over the last few years

  • 01:05

    in 2021. We had a record amount. It was 97 percent over the previous year. So you think about it we have this huge amount of
    in 2021. We had a record amount. It was 97 percent over the previous year. So you think about it we have this huge amount of

  • 01:14

    capital that's already been deployed into early stage companies. We also have about six hundred three hundred and thirty million
    capital that's already been deployed into early stage companies. We also have about six hundred three hundred and thirty million

  • 01:21

    billion of dry powder that's already been raised and ready to deploy.
    billion of dry powder that's already been raised and ready to deploy.

  • 01:27

    So what does that mean. That really means that these venture firms early stage companies
    So what does that mean. That really means that these venture firms early stage companies

  • 01:32

    have a lot of fuel in the tank to keep going to weather this current market situation. Does that large amount of money even
    have a lot of fuel in the tank to keep going to weather this current market situation. Does that large amount of money even

  • 01:41

    huge runway make your job more difficult. You're looking for results for really great opportunities. Yes there are a lot of
    huge runway make your job more difficult. You're looking for results for really great opportunities. Yes there are a lot of

  • 01:48

    people in there. Maybe. Maybe not as disciplined as Paul Allen is. What does it mean. Devaluations valuations. Are people
    people in there. Maybe. Maybe not as disciplined as Paul Allen is. What does it mean. Devaluations valuations. Are people

  • 01:54

    overbuilt. Do you have a tough time finding proper prices for what you invest in. Yes. So at Plum we're very very focused on
    overbuilt. Do you have a tough time finding proper prices for what you invest in. Yes. So at Plum we're very very focused on

  • 02:02

    the fundamentals. And I come from Wall Street. I spent 20 years on Wall Street at Goldman and other places as do my team
    the fundamentals. And I come from Wall Street. I spent 20 years on Wall Street at Goldman and other places as do my team

  • 02:10

    members. So we come out looking at venture from a kind of fundamental point of view which means do the companies have
    members. So we come out looking at venture from a kind of fundamental point of view which means do the companies have

  • 02:17

    revenue. Do they have real customers. Do they have a real product that we need in the world. If the answer to that is yes
    revenue. Do they have real customers. Do they have a real product that we need in the world. If the answer to that is yes

  • 02:23

    then you drill down and look at the numbers. And in our case the companies that we've funded have revenues. But we only look at
    then you drill down and look at the numbers. And in our case the companies that we've funded have revenues. But we only look at

  • 02:30

    you know six to seven times current revenues for SAS company. And in the market that number has been about 12 times revenues.
    you know six to seven times current revenues for SAS company. And in the market that number has been about 12 times revenues.

  • 02:40

    So we have seen this situation where valuations have been way overpriced.
    So we have seen this situation where valuations have been way overpriced.

  • 02:48

    And I think that's a reflection of the fact there is so much capital coming into the market when there's a lot of capital in
    And I think that's a reflection of the fact there is so much capital coming into the market when there's a lot of capital in

  • 02:53

    the market it pumps up valuations. But that's also really part of why there's a lot of dry powder because if you if you're only
    the market it pumps up valuations. But that's also really part of why there's a lot of dry powder because if you if you're only

  • 03:00

    really go to seven times if people are spending twelve times you don't spend the money you have to sit on your money until you
    really go to seven times if people are spending twelve times you don't spend the money you have to sit on your money until you

  • 03:05

    find the proper valuation. Where are the opportunities that you find right now that makes
    find the proper valuation. Where are the opportunities that you find right now that makes

  • 03:09

    sense. Well we we've invested now 65 million in 27 companies. So we've been at this for five years.
    sense. Well we we've invested now 65 million in 27 companies. So we've been at this for five years.

  • 03:20

    So we have had the opportunity to see the market change over time. But we have stuck to our knitting.
    So we have had the opportunity to see the market change over time. But we have stuck to our knitting.

  • 03:24

    We have stuck to the fundamentals which is due. What are the revenues. What does the company actually doing.
    We have stuck to the fundamentals which is due. What are the revenues. What does the company actually doing.

  • 03:30

    Is the company essential for our future survival. And for more productivity and industry. Does it really matter versus
    Is the company essential for our future survival. And for more productivity and industry. Does it really matter versus

  • 03:37

    companies those that are sort of optional like dog walking apps. If you're looking for transformation because it sounds like
    companies those that are sort of optional like dog walking apps. If you're looking for transformation because it sounds like

  • 03:42

    that's what you're looking for a fundamental transformation. Basic changes in our society in our economy. Were you looking.
    that's what you're looking for a fundamental transformation. Basic changes in our society in our economy. Were you looking.

  • 03:48

    Is that energy transition. A lot of you are doing that. Is that biotech. What sectors do you look at. So three quarters
    Is that energy transition. A lot of you are doing that. Is that biotech. What sectors do you look at. So three quarters

  • 03:57

    of our portfolio is in Frontier Technologies. So think of robotics. Think about A.I..
    of our portfolio is in Frontier Technologies. So think of robotics. Think about A.I..

  • 04:03

    Think about sensors that are monitoring monitoring climate. And then 30 percent it's in health care. So Chris verging editing
    Think about sensors that are monitoring monitoring climate. And then 30 percent it's in health care. So Chris verging editing

  • 04:10

    therapeutics that have never been introduced in the market before. So we like that combination because we think there needs
    therapeutics that have never been introduced in the market before. So we like that combination because we think there needs

  • 04:19

    to be innovation is happening in every sector. It's not limited to health care. It's not limited to industry. It's not limited
    to be innovation is happening in every sector. It's not limited to health care. It's not limited to industry. It's not limited

  • 04:26

    to human beings. It sounds like you're sort of swinging for the fences as it were. I mean you're looking for the big home run.
    to human beings. It sounds like you're sort of swinging for the fences as it were. I mean you're looking for the big home run.

  • 04:32

    That means you will have more strikes almost necessarily. There's risk involved. Yeah huge reward at the same time. Yes.
    That means you will have more strikes almost necessarily. There's risk involved. Yeah huge reward at the same time. Yes.

  • 04:39

    How do you balance that ability to really get a homerun against what you just said. A lot of companies in. How is there a moat
    How do you balance that ability to really get a homerun against what you just said. A lot of companies in. How is there a moat

  • 04:45

    around these companies. Yes there is. And the companies and I can speak to the companies we've invested.
    around these companies. Yes there is. And the companies and I can speak to the companies we've invested.

  • 04:53

    There is a proprietary technology. They own IP. It's one of the things that we look for. And these are hard
    There is a proprietary technology. They own IP. It's one of the things that we look for. And these are hard

  • 04:57

    technologies. It's like. We've invested in a company on ride that is a Thomas
    technologies. It's like. We've invested in a company on ride that is a Thomas

  • 05:03

    and electric freight vehicles. They are bordering on one hundred million of air are they are. Musk is one of their big clients
    and electric freight vehicles. They are bordering on one hundred million of air are they are. Musk is one of their big clients

  • 05:11

    only G.E. appliances etc. So. So these are companies that have had the fundamentals to show
    only G.E. appliances etc. So. So these are companies that have had the fundamentals to show

  • 05:20

    growth. Who are very smart to do those fundamentals. When we invested in a series a level and many of our companies are you
    growth. Who are very smart to do those fundamentals. When we invested in a series a level and many of our companies are you

  • 05:27

    know very much they are unicorns at this point and there's still more time to go. So it's never over until the money is in the
    know very much they are unicorns at this point and there's still more time to go. So it's never over until the money is in the

  • 05:34

    bank. I want to come back to the downturn if I can call it that. Certainly we're seeing the right now. You mentioned IPO is
    bank. I want to come back to the downturn if I can call it that. Certainly we're seeing the right now. You mentioned IPO is

  • 05:39

    before the U.S. IPO is don't look as certain today as they did two three four years ago when. Yes almost you couldn't get out
    before the U.S. IPO is don't look as certain today as they did two three four years ago when. Yes almost you couldn't get out

  • 05:47

    of the way of the money essentially. Is that dampening in all your ardor. So for some these companies
    of the way of the money essentially. Is that dampening in all your ardor. So for some these companies

  • 05:52

    because the IPO exit may not be there when you get there. I think you know if you if you look at the time horizon of being
    because the IPO exit may not be there when you get there. I think you know if you if you look at the time horizon of being

  • 06:00

    seven years four series a level early stage companies there is still some time left on the companies we've invested in.
    seven years four series a level early stage companies there is still some time left on the companies we've invested in.

  • 06:07

    We've invested in the last three to four years. So we know there's still some time to go before their position for IPO.
    We've invested in the last three to four years. So we know there's still some time to go before their position for IPO.

  • 06:14

    Some of our companies have accelerated in that timeframe has shortened.
    Some of our companies have accelerated in that timeframe has shortened.

  • 06:17

    But you know will the market be there in my opinion. You look at look at history when really strong companies are ready to come
    But you know will the market be there in my opinion. You look at look at history when really strong companies are ready to come

  • 06:27

    to market. They will have the opportunity. It may not be every company and
    to market. They will have the opportunity. It may not be every company and

  • 06:31

    it may be maybe six months or a year later. But where is the world going. I mean the world is going to these technologies to
    it may be maybe six months or a year later. But where is the world going. I mean the world is going to these technologies to

  • 06:39

    adopting these technologies because they bring value they bring value they bring efficiency they bring more productivity. They
    adopting these technologies because they bring value they bring value they bring efficiency they bring more productivity. They

  • 06:45

    deal with the workforce. They deal with fixing our climate issues. So why is so much capital poured into this sector.
    deal with the workforce. They deal with fixing our climate issues. So why is so much capital poured into this sector.

  • 06:52

    Because people see the future is technology and they want to have a piece of that. Is it risky. Of course it's risky. But
    Because people see the future is technology and they want to have a piece of that. Is it risky. Of course it's risky. But

  • 06:59

    don't tell me the public markets aren't risky at this point. So it's risky but it's risk versus return. And what do you do to
    don't tell me the public markets aren't risky at this point. So it's risky but it's risk versus return. And what do you do to

  • 07:07

    mitigate some of the risk. You rate the companies are a little bit further along. You do your diligence.
    mitigate some of the risk. You rate the companies are a little bit further along. You do your diligence.

  • 07:13

    You kick the tires. You understand if they have a competitive moat you understand if they own IP and you understand do they
    You kick the tires. You understand if they have a competitive moat you understand if they own IP and you understand do they

  • 07:20

    have to be in the world. If you have a company that does not need to be in the world that is a risky company. Our companies
    have to be in the world. If you have a company that does not need to be in the world that is a risky company. Our companies

  • 07:25

    need to be in the world and we have deep conviction on that. So matter of time we'll see. But I'd like to come back and share
    need to be in the world and we have deep conviction on that. So matter of time we'll see. But I'd like to come back and share

  • 07:33

    with you when we have those returns and exit. Please do it. I don't doubt the conviction. I can feel the conviction. But let
    with you when we have those returns and exit. Please do it. I don't doubt the conviction. I can feel the conviction. But let

  • 07:38

    me.
    me.

All phrase
or whatever
//

phrase

or anything similar.

Economic Downturn and VC

7,177 views

Video Language:

  • English

Caption Language:

  • English (en)

Accent:

  • English

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Category:

  • News & Politics

Tags :

Intro:

So the big question is there's a downturn without doubt. Look at the markets whether it's equities or debt or whatever downturn
is it affecting venture capital. And if so how. Well the big macro issues that we're facing in the public
markets like inflation. Supply chain challenges and also things like the recent Supreme Court ruling that would affect EPA
regulations. All of those factors come into play for the public markets.
They also have implications in the private markets. However the private markets are very very different.
So the private markets when you think of venture investors are looking at the medium term timeframe not like short day to day
trading and immediate effects but more over a course of seven years for a series a level financing.
And so there are it's it's a medium term kind of investor mentality that's happening.
I think it's important to know that there is so much money that's been put out into venture capital over the last few years
in 2021. We had a record amount. It was 97 percent over the previous year. So you think about it we have this huge amount of
capital that's already been deployed into early stage companies. We also have about six hundred three hundred and thirty million
billion of dry powder that's already been raised and ready to deploy.
So what does that mean. That really means that these venture firms early stage companies
have a lot of fuel in the tank to keep going to weather this current market situation. Does that large amount of money even
huge runway make your job more difficult. You're looking for results for really great opportunities. Yes there are a lot of
people in there. Maybe. Maybe not as disciplined as Paul Allen is. What does it mean. Devaluations valuations. Are people
overbuilt. Do you have a tough time finding proper prices for what you invest in. Yes. So at Plum we're very very focused on
the fundamentals. And I come from Wall Street. I spent 20 years on Wall Street at Goldman and other places as do my team
members. So we come out looking at venture from a kind of fundamental point of view which means do the companies have
revenue. Do they have real customers. Do they have a real product that we need in the world. If the answer to that is yes

Video Vocabulary

/ˈ(h)weT͟Hər/

conjunction

If something will happen or not.

/ˈprēvēəs/

adjective

Existing or happening before the present time.

/dəˈploi/

verb

move troops into position for military action.

/ˈkərənt/

adjective noun

belonging to present. Movement of water in a river, or air in the sky.

/pərˈsent/

adverb noun

by specified amount in or for every hundred. one part in every hundred.

/əˈfektiNG/

adjective verb

touching emotions. To cause a change in something else.

/ˈdisəˌplind/

adjective verb

showing controlled form of behaviour or way of working. To punish a person for their wrongdoing.

/ˈkapədl/

adjective exclamation noun

Main, or major. expressing approval. Writing the first letter of a word in big letters.

/ˈweT͟Hər/

noun verb

Whether it is raining, sunny, cold etc. outside. To erode or become damaged due to the environment.

/ˌimpləˈkāSH(ə)n/

noun other

conclusion that can be drawn from something although it is not explicitly stated. Possible effects, results from an action or event.

/ˌvalyəˈwāSH(ə)n/

noun other

estimation of worth of something. Prices of some things, determined by experts.

/ˌfəndəˈmen(t)əl/

adjective noun

forming base or core. (Music) the lowest note in a harmony.

/ˈtīm ˌfrām/

noun

Expected beginning and end of a period.

/ˈkəmp(ə)nē/

noun other verb

commercial business. Businesses that sell things or provides services. associate with.

/imˈpôrtnt/

adjective

Having power or authority.