Let me start with you about this so-called bull market, is it for real,
Let me start with you about this so-called bull market, is it for real,

is it going to sustain I must say we have our elves here that follow these
is it going to sustain I must say we have our elves here that follow these

things for Bloomberg, various security analyst, and they think we're end of the
things for Bloomberg, various security analyst, and they think we're end of the

year around 4000. We're now pushing 40, 300.
year around 4000. We're now pushing 40, 300.

Is it real? Well, we're as what we call a skeptical
Is it real? Well, we're as what we call a skeptical

participant in the market, really with a neutral position on U.S.
participant in the market, really with a neutral position on U.S.

equities. And really the reason why is you've got
equities. And really the reason why is you've got

a conflicting set of signals going on as far as what may happen with the stock
a conflicting set of signals going on as far as what may happen with the stock

market. So on the one side, we certainly know
market. So on the one side, we certainly know

that fundamentals have been sighing, whether it's on the top down corporate
that fundamentals have been sighing, whether it's on the top down corporate

basis or on the bottom up top down macro basis or the bottom up corporate basis.
basis or on the bottom up top down macro basis or the bottom up corporate basis.

And we have headwinds of continued a tight policy in monetary factors.
And we have headwinds of continued a tight policy in monetary factors.

On the other hand, however, we have seen some green shoots starting to come up
On the other hand, however, we have seen some green shoots starting to come up

recently and technicals certainly have been pushing on a relative basis.
recently and technicals certainly have been pushing on a relative basis.

The U.S. equity market higher.
The U.S. equity market higher.

So are we in a new bull market? We think it still remains to be seen,
So are we in a new bull market? We think it still remains to be seen,

but certainly there is some momentum right now towards an upward trajectory.
but certainly there is some momentum right now towards an upward trajectory.

Joel Weber, we hear from the Fed next week and we're told that tight monetary
Joel Weber, we hear from the Fed next week and we're told that tight monetary

policy is that one of the things that could actually take this bull market
policy is that one of the things that could actually take this bull market

back away from us again? Look, I think to at least as once I
back away from us again? Look, I think to at least as once I

think that the technicals have certainly been very supportive of this run.
think that the technicals have certainly been very supportive of this run.

People came into the air, very nervous, sort of concerned about the outlook for
People came into the air, very nervous, sort of concerned about the outlook for

earnings, earnings, surprise to the upside.
earnings, earnings, surprise to the upside.

Thinks it's Danielli in Q1 and people are sitting there long.
Thinks it's Danielli in Q1 and people are sitting there long.

A lot of cash. And I think you're going to see risk
A lot of cash. And I think you're going to see risk

assets continue to perform here because of the you know, the amount of amount of
assets continue to perform here because of the you know, the amount of amount of

cash still on sidelines looking to get invested.
cash still on sidelines looking to get invested.

You know, it's interesting that he talked about a bull market.
You know, it's interesting that he talked about a bull market.

Yes. I guess it is now technically a bull
Yes. I guess it is now technically a bull

market up until, you know, just a few weeks ago is fairly concentrated bull
market up until, you know, just a few weeks ago is fairly concentrated bull

market. So it's it's, you know, with it, whether
market. So it's it's, you know, with it, whether

it's the top seven, eight, nine stocks have driven a large amount of that.
it's the top seven, eight, nine stocks have driven a large amount of that.

But I'd say that's starting to become more broad based.
But I'd say that's starting to become more broad based.

So, you know, I've seen small cap mid-cap industrials starting to catch
So, you know, I've seen small cap mid-cap industrials starting to catch

up. So it's starting to look like a slightly
up. So it's starting to look like a slightly

healthy Iran as well. Then the very concentrated run we are
healthy Iran as well. Then the very concentrated run we are

seeing just a few weeks ago. There are a lot of dry powder, Julian,
seeing just a few weeks ago. There are a lot of dry powder, Julian,

right now. We see over 5 trillion, I think now in
right now. We see over 5 trillion, I think now in

money market funds that could come back in the equities market.
money market funds that could come back in the equities market.

Yeah, there's about five point two trillion in U.S.
Yeah, there's about five point two trillion in U.S.

money markets alone, around six point five trillion on a global basis.
money markets alone, around six point five trillion on a global basis.

It's interesting that, you know, the flow into those is still modestly
It's interesting that, you know, the flow into those is still modestly

positive. Nowhere near the rate that we were
positive. Nowhere near the rate that we were

seeing money coming into this money market funds around the events of Vasily
seeing money coming into this money market funds around the events of Vasily

SVP a few months ago, but it's still gradually trickling in.
SVP a few months ago, but it's still gradually trickling in.

You know, an interesting phenomena that there's a lot of stress in the money
You know, an interesting phenomena that there's a lot of stress in the money

market complex that of the debt ceiling without being resolved.
market complex that of the debt ceiling without being resolved.

That's really kind of gone out of the system now.
That's really kind of gone out of the system now.

You know, there's a lot of treasury issuance coming up the next few weeks
You know, there's a lot of treasury issuance coming up the next few weeks

and expectations. You know, the money market funds are
and expectations. You know, the money market funds are

going to take up a lot of that supply. Least a week, a week or two ago, we were
going to take up a lot of that supply. Least a week, a week or two ago, we were

all concerned about the banks as we had that series of bank failures starting in
all concerned about the banks as we had that series of bank failures starting in

March. There's like some sort of liquidity
March. There's like some sort of liquidity

willingness to lend. I we through that at this point, do we
willingness to lend. I we through that at this point, do we

still have risks of a lack of liquidity, particularly as we have to issue all
still have risks of a lack of liquidity, particularly as we have to issue all

those T bills to make up for what we drew down because that debt ceiling
those T bills to make up for what we drew down because that debt ceiling

broke? We are still really carefully watching
broke? We are still really carefully watching

the liquidity, to your point, David, and the reason why is while we've had a
the liquidity, to your point, David, and the reason why is while we've had a

fortunate reprieve in what's going on with financial sector stresses,
fortunate reprieve in what's going on with financial sector stresses,

certainly they are facing potential increased regulatory requirements as
certainly they are facing potential increased regulatory requirements as

well as really just dealing with general economic slowdown.
well as really just dealing with general economic slowdown.

And so you've got some tightening conditions there.
And so you've got some tightening conditions there.

In addition, as you mentioned, the Treasury general account really has to
In addition, as you mentioned, the Treasury general account really has to

rebuild. Because they were spending down all of
rebuild. Because they were spending down all of

that money during the debt ceiling debate and they need to rebuild up their
that money during the debt ceiling debate and they need to rebuild up their

reserves. So as they do that, they're going to
reserves. So as they do that, they're going to

pull money out of the system. What's interesting is we did just have
pull money out of the system. What's interesting is we did just have

some auctions are starting to rebuild that reserve this week.
some auctions are starting to rebuild that reserve this week.

And the good news is, as we monitored some of the yield activity around those
And the good news is, as we monitored some of the yield activity around those

auctions, we didn't see any concerning signs at this point.
auctions, we didn't see any concerning signs at this point.

But it is very early days and there's almost about a trillion that's expected
But it is very early days and there's almost about a trillion that's expected

to come into the TGA coffers and out of the market really over the next several
to come into the TGA coffers and out of the market really over the next several

months. So that's something we'll just continue
months. So that's something we'll just continue

to monitor. I think this part of the rally we've
to monitor. I think this part of the rally we've

seen in the last few weeks is people getting increasingly comfortable that
seen in the last few weeks is people getting increasingly comfortable that

the banks to Asian seems have stabilized somewhat.
the banks to Asian seems have stabilized somewhat.

And that's certainly been true in the near-term.
And that's certainly been true in the near-term.

I think that the short term liquidity issues have been somewhat put to that.
I think that the short term liquidity issues have been somewhat put to that.

But I think it's it's not out of the woods yet.
But I think it's it's not out of the woods yet.

I think there's still going to be continued pressure on the banks for a
I think there's still going to be continued pressure on the banks for a

whole variety levels. I think net interest margins will remain
whole variety levels. I think net interest margins will remain

under pressure. I think credit quality is going to
under pressure. I think credit quality is going to

continue to become under pressure. We're still in the early innings.
continue to become under pressure. We're still in the early innings.

Julie, you're just fresh back from Berlin.
Julie, you're just fresh back from Berlin.

Big Covid over there. It was more private oriented, I think.
Big Covid over there. It was more private oriented, I think.

What about private credit? Is it going to step in wherever we need
What about private credit? Is it going to step in wherever we need

it for the banks? Look, I think a lot of questions around
it for the banks? Look, I think a lot of questions around

this topic. Everyone, you know, as I go around the
this topic. Everyone, you know, as I go around the

world, not just in Berlin, but the Middle East, Far East has a lot of
world, not just in Berlin, but the Middle East, Far East has a lot of

interest in private credit. Of course, here in the U.S., questions
interest in private credit. Of course, here in the U.S., questions

being asked about, you know, is that getting overinflated now?
being asked about, you know, is that getting overinflated now?

Is that too much excitement, too much money going into that?
Is that too much excitement, too much money going into that?

I would say, look, it's it's great that it's.
I would say, look, it's it's great that it's.

There is an alternative source of capital at a time like this when the
There is an alternative source of capital at a time like this when the

banks that broadly syndicated, broadly syndicated markets, Cielo markets.
banks that broadly syndicated, broadly syndicated markets, Cielo markets.

Not really that to provide liquidity. So they're able to step in.
Not really that to provide liquidity. So they're able to step in.

And I think there's still a long way to run.
And I think there's still a long way to run.

I mean, it's still only about you know, about 7 percent of the fixed income
I mean, it's still only about you know, about 7 percent of the fixed income

market is private credit. Only about 2 percent of global view and
market is private credit. Only about 2 percent of global view and

only 17 percent even of alternatives. So we still think that private credit
only 17 percent even of alternatives. So we still think that private credit

market has an opportunity to continue compounding now 20 circa 20 percent plus
market has an opportunity to continue compounding now 20 circa 20 percent plus

growth rates over the next few years, even a quarter of the private credit
growth rates over the next few years, even a quarter of the private credit

market. Where do you see up to some fixed income
market. Where do you see up to some fixed income

right now, particularly? Well, we think there's actually a number
right now, particularly? Well, we think there's actually a number

of interesting opportunities in fixed income.
of interesting opportunities in fixed income.

And while overall yields really are much higher than they were a year ago.
And while overall yields really are much higher than they were a year ago.

If you look into specific sectors, there really are some very additional
If you look into specific sectors, there really are some very additional

opportunities to pick up yield. So one area, for example, that we are
opportunities to pick up yield. So one area, for example, that we are

advocating heavily with our clients is an area called reinsurance, where
advocating heavily with our clients is an area called reinsurance, where

basically as an investor, you're really helping to pick up some of that
basically as an investor, you're really helping to pick up some of that

insurance risk and in turn get paid a hefty premium on the property and
insurance risk and in turn get paid a hefty premium on the property and

casualty area. And what we're seeing right now is
casualty area. And what we're seeing right now is

really not only that nice incremental yield, but there's actually just a lot
really not only that nice incremental yield, but there's actually just a lot

of pressure for those prices to continue to be very attractive for investors
of pressure for those prices to continue to be very attractive for investors

simply because there's a lack of capital in the sector.
simply because there's a lack of capital in the sector.

So that's really one area we're interested in.
So that's really one area we're interested in.

Another one really is an area called Don Agency Mortgages.
Another one really is an area called Don Agency Mortgages.

And so here what you have is actually still fairly strong fundamentals
And so here what you have is actually still fairly strong fundamentals

underpinning some of these borrowers for very large mortgages that are not
underpinning some of these borrowers for very large mortgages that are not

necessarily guaranteed by the agencies, but again, very strong yields that are
necessarily guaranteed by the agencies, but again, very strong yields that are

supported by borrower repayments.
supported by borrower repayments.