now in Belarus polls are open for
tightly controlled parliamentary
elections longtime leader Alexander
lukashenko placed his vote at a polling
station in the capital Minsk where he
also confirmed his intention to run for
president in
2025 dozens of opposition parties have
been denied registration for today's
election and one opposition leader who
is in Exile has urged voters to boycott
it four parties which support lenk's
policies have been granted official
registration
Alexander lucenko signs new agreements
with his master Vladimir Putin the war
in Ukraine has seen him seek even closer
ties with the Kremlin like Putin
lukashenko betrays his country as being
under siege he accuses the west of
plotting to seize power during the
elections this is not an easy time but
as you can see things are calm and I'm
sure we can prepare for the elections
and then hold them just as
calmly to ensure that lucenko has
stepped up his Crackdown on descent the
only safe place to protest is abroad
like here in neighboring
Lithuania in belus right now dozens of
political prisoners are held in
communic the lives of mikich Masha kesik
Alis bki my husband s and others are now
under direct threat we don't even know
know if they are
alive lukashenko has ruled Belarus for
nearly 30 years all true opposition
parties have been dissolved only
candidates who support the regime are
allowed to run for office elections here
have become just a
ritual the last time Belarus went to the
polls was in August 2020 lukashenko
secured a sixth term in a vote the
opposition said was a
sham it triggered a wave of protests
and a brutal Crackdown more than 35,000
people were
arrested in these parliamentary
elections the results also seem a
foregone conclusion the only unknown is
how those opposed to Alexander lenko
will
respond come on there let's bring in
Olga drenova a political scientist and
Belarus Analyst at the research center
for e European studies thanks for
joining us Madam would you agree with
those questioning the credibility of
this
election well definitely I mean Belarus
is a Consolidated autocracy it has
become even more Consolidated um um than
it used to be before the protest 2020
and the last elections really free
elections took place there in the '90s
so we definitely do not expect
independent candidates we only have four
political parties that are still
registered all the others have been um
dissolved and those political parties
are also loyal to the state uh we also
do not have actually any International
observers being invited to these
elections uh which is um also important
and even in the embassies of Belarus
abroad uh the belarussian citizens for
the first time are not allowed to cast
their vote so I would not of course
expect elections to be Democratic but I
think the function of these elections is
not to show the International world how
Democratic bellaris is but to um to
prove to the own States uh people
working for the state that lukashenka
still has control um power control and
controls the political
system we all remember the massive
Crackdown on opposition protesters that
was in 2020 what's the situation of the
opposition inside bellarus at the
moment well if we talk about classical
political opposition it just doesn't
exist in ballar and it's actually not
possible because all people who have
been active who who were able to be
active who wanted to be active and who
were active are now uh either in jail or
had to leave the country and to act from
abroad um in general we can imagine that
like this that there is a certain
relation uh between State and society
that has been developed where the state
tries to overtake the total control over
society and even people's PR private
life just to give you one example even
some posts on Facebook or other social
Nets posting enough photos or even likes
or something like uh wearing um clothes
which have uh white and red color which
is for the state design of opposition uh
can lead and do actually lead to arrest
so people are kind of trying you know
psychologically to come back to their
everyday life in order not to be um
always upset by the fact that the
political changes are not happening so
with all of these challenges is there
any way of knowing how much support
lukashenko actually has from the
bashian uh we do have some figures but I
would be very cautious with them because
it's really very unreliable um to uh to
do sociological um surveys Consolidated
autocracy so these figures are about 20
to 30% once again we have to be cautious
but I would even say it's not that
important because the system that we
have now in Belarus is not about the the
popularity of lukashenka it's about uh
the consolidation of the um repressions
apparatus that has been functioning just
unfortunately very good in the last
years and it's also about his loyalty or
the Loyalty of the states people people
working for the state structure uh the
Loyalty the personal loyalty to
lukashenka so it's I think this factor
of how popular he is in the society is
long as he has enough resources to
repress people unfortunately not um very
important anymore right um we cannot
talk about Belarus without mentioning
Russia right how much more influence can
Russia have when you imagine the future
of
belus uh definitely very much influence
I would say that the future of bellus um
very much critically depends on uh what
happens um in in the Ukraine uh which um
direction will the war develop also it
depends on the internal developments
political developments and Russia but OB
also in the European Union and in the US
because a lot of support financial and
international other kinds of support to
the Democratic forces come from there I
would say that um a democratic scenario
is not completely excluded so to say in
case of valis when we have the regime
change but as long as the country is
critically dependent the political
regime of lukashenka is critically
dependent both economically and
politically from the regime of Putin and
it has become even more critical after
the start of the Ukraine the war in
Ukraine and after the introduction of
the sanctions of lest against belus and
Russia um it would be very very
difficult to expect some democratic
scenarios and um some colleagues in
expert circles even talk about the Lost
of um parts of sovereignty of
Bel okay Belarus analyst all ginda thank
you very much for your
time