meanwhile Russia says it has taken full
control of the Eastern Ukrainian town of
a diviva after Ukraine pulled its troops
out on Saturday this footage from
Russian State media shows Russian
soldiers occupying the now ruined former
industrial Hub in the donbass region
moscow's claimed that Ukraine's retreat
was so rushed and poorly planned that
some Ukrainian forces were left behind
Ukraine's military has acknowledged
casualties during the withdrawal but
says the situation is stable taking of
divka would be moscow's biggest win on
the battlefield since the capture of the
city of bakut last
May let's go through this with Frank
ledwich he lectures in strategic studies
at Portsmouth University in the UK he's
a former military intelligence officer
and joins us now from the English city
of Oxford welcome back France uh Frank
how big a blow is the loss of a diva for
Ukraine it's a certainly a defeat but I
would say a couple of things first of
all that this was a question certainly
over the last 6 months of when and not
if the ukrainians were in a precarious
position there they're in what's called
a Salient or a kettle but I mean there's
no bright side particularly to this but
what a couple of observations on what
Phil the Russians are saying first of
all there's no question here of entire
brigades being encircled captured and
killed the ukrainians did manage to
withdraw from that sent and seem to be
conducting quite an effective defense
west of it but there's no equally no
doubt that strategically this comes at a
very bad time obviously there are the
decisions to be made in the US Congress
and Ukraine the message perhaps from
Ukraine one would hope would have been
one of continuing success and this isn't
that but like I say this is when not if
the timing is unfortunate but the
ukrainians do seem to have withdrawn in
reasonably by the chaotic standards of
these things reasonably good order right
and and the the the city itself is this
a sort of symbolic victory for Russia or
does it actually have strategic
value if you look at it on the map it's
about 20 km from the center of or rather
from detet City and it was the last
place from which Ukraine for the last
decade or so was able to Shell or Menace
D detet city which is a huge
embarrassment for the Russians so uh to
that extent it's it's significant I
don't buy the the argument made by
someone it's clearly not the case I
think that this is somehow the key to
Don bass or even Don it's oblast it's
not it's a not an especially significant
strategic Place its significance lay
same as blackmur in the fact that it was
being held and it was something of an
embarrassment uh so I think I think one
could say a little more than that about
it right and how has Ukraine's shortage
of artillery and ammunition played not
only into this uh defeat but the war
effort
overall yeah the artillery is
interesting uh it's it's not simply a
case I think of of the the West not
supplying enough there's no doubt
whatsoever that Ukrainian Army is
suffering what has been called for the
last well let the term it goes back to
the first world war shell hunger they
are at match somewhere between 4 to1 and
7 to1 some say more in some places and
it certainly contributed to bmot but the
challenge of the West is even if us
assistance in the form of money comes
through where this new ammunition is
going to come from this was a problem
throughout last year as well and it was
a problem because the West simply
doesn't have the ammunition or won't
give what ammunition it has it's not
really a question of money at the moment
there's also the issue as well which
rather more complex of different kinds
of ammunition and dimitro CA raised this
at the Munich security conference look
this is a complex issue there's no doubt
whatsoever Ukraine is in real trouble
with respect to artillery but one is
slightly lost as to what the solution
may be over the next year right and and
just a quick word about some comments
that were raised at the Munich security
conference at the weekend various
officials were quoted as dismissing a
perception that Russia is now on its way
to winning the war and Ukraine uh on the
brink of collapse um are they right to
do
that yes I think so Ukraine's nowhere
near collaps this is this this is stage
one had in the second world war 1942 or
during the first world war on the Allied
side or be both sides in 1916 it's where
Ukraine is now digging in both literally
and metaphorically and psychologically
and no ukrainians that I speak to are
talking about collapse what they are
talking about now officially and
unofficially look we've got to we've got
to dig out our psychological and
physical resources they're on the
defensive now the issue here is uh how
they're going to handle that defense at
the moment it seems like they're going
to rely on much the same tactics as the
Russians did last year or operational
level of prepared prepared defenses and
I think that's pretty wise in the
circumstances no they're nowhere near
collapse I mean you only need to look at
the map to see that yes Russian Russia
is making incremental advances but if
the taking of a relatively small town uh
after two years of effort counts as as
some sort of overwhelming Victory the
Russians really are in trouble clear as
ever thank you so much for that Frank a
military analyst Frank
ledwich thank
you