now Russia's military says that it has
begun tactical nuclear weapons drills
near Ukraine the exercises are taking
place in Russia's Southern military
District which according to the Kremlin
includes parts of Ukraine under
occupation now Moscow says the drills
are in response to threats from some
Western officials it's the first time
that Russia has publicly announced
drills that involve tactical nuclear
weapons while its strategic nuclear
forces regularly hold
exercises Kates zisk is Professor of
international relations and contemporary
history at the Norwegian Institute for
defense studies she joins us joins us
now welcome to DW um what kind of
weapons are we talking about here I mean
what are tactical nuclear bombs
exactly so they are considered less
powerful than intercontinental ballistic
missiles they will have normally a small
smaller yield they can be small as to
one uh kiloton and so they are
considered for Battlefield used so the
threshold for the use may be lower uh
they can be carried by uh sea loued uh
missiles air lunched missiles uh
landbased missiles artillery and they
are not really subject to uh Arms
Control such as intercontinental
ballistic missiles which is uh also why
we do not really know exactly how Russia
how many of these Warheads Russia has
but the estimate is around, 1500 to
2,000 okay so these are not the kind of
weapons that can wipe out whole cities
but of course they are tactical nuclear
bombs exactly yes so so that's why again
this is the the the the the threshold
for for the use is is considered to be
lower so and I did want to ask you I
mean How likely is it that Russia will
actually use weapons like these in the
war against Ukraine
yeah I this is a question that many has
posed I mean nobody can really exclude
that but I think con right now the risk
is not uh very high for a number of
reasons why is that uh Russia is doing
relatively well on the battlefield
another is that Russia has been warned
by the United States by China against
such use and I think These Warnings has
actually had effects uh when it comes to
China in particular Russia has made
itself more and more dependent uh which
also uh makes that Moscow has to listen
carefully what Beijing has to say in
that matter and Russia has not been able
really to coers with its nuclear threats
nuclear intimidation Ukraine uh to to
back off and neither uh has it helped
Russia to to uh contain the scope of of
help uh to to uh from the Western
countries to uh to Ukraine in the in the
beginning yes but it expanded more and
more so I think also Russia has not been
really able to convince that Russia has
much higher stakes in this war than the
United States or NATO uh which both
consider the war presented the war as
existential not only for Ukraine but
also for European and transatlantic
security okay can I ask you if these
kind of weapons were used how would they
change the course of the
war um well it depends uh so they would
be primarily Russia would use them
primar for political effect so Russia
would try to coers Ukraine and the West
the United States to back off to accept
Russia's conditions for ending the
conflict uh but so so the the objective
would be to shock and pressure but we've
seen that this is also a psychological
game in a sense and Russia has not been
really able to convince that or had a
certainty that NATO the United States
would not react and that it would not
actually lead to a very very dangerous
escalation so which is also possible in
case Russia would would use nuclear
weapons so in Russia in Moscow there
will be assessing to what extent this
kind of use will actually well will have
an effect but also a response so there
will be waging costs and risks uh of of
such an escalation and that's why
staying United and sending a signal to
Moscow this will not not intimidate
neither Ukraine nor the West is
extremely important also to lower the
risk of actual nuclear use all right
we'll have to leave it there Kat zis
with the Norwegian Institute uh for
defense studies thank you so much for
your
time thank you very
much Mark Canan joins me now he's a
retired colonel in the US Marine Corps
and a senior adviser with the
International Security program at the
center for strategic and International
Studies welcome to DW news uh now is
Russia merely posturing with these
drills or is there more to
it I think there's more to it this time
I think they are signaling to the West
that NATO troops will not be acceptable
in Ukraine that has been one of Russia's
red lines since the beginning of the war
NATO has respected that uh but now
you're hearing NATO members talking
about possibly moving troops into NATO
of course we heard about President mcon
but the estonians have said that they
might send rear Echelon troops trainers
into uh Ukraine uh and zilinsky himself
is talking about having NATO uh aircraft
shooting down Russian missiles in
Ukraine so faced with this Rising uh
discussion about possibly sending NATO
forces into Ukraine I think this is
Russia's
response nuclear threats have been part
of Russia's strategy in Ukraine since
the beginning of the
invasion um has that been effective so
far well I think it has been effective
uh there were a number of incidents
early on where the Russians rattled
their nuclear saber and that made the
West nervous I think that's one reason
that the United States for one
uh hesitated to provide long range
missiles attackers for example which
they've just provided U because of the
concerns over uh
escalation uh the Russians had backed
off from their nuclear threats and
that's likely in response to uh
criticisms by uh China done privately uh
that they did not want to see escalation
so it's been a while since we've seen
one of these kinds of threats
the US has previously downplayed
concerns that uh Russia could deploy a
nuclear weapon in Ukraine but behind the
scenes what kind of scenarios do you
think the US has prepared
for well the United States has hedged a
bit about the possible uh use of nuclear
weapons now the United States watches
very carefully to see whether the
Russians are actually moving nuclear
weapons into places where they they
could be launched and that has not been
the case uh since the beginning of the
war despite all the saber rattling the
Russians have not increased the
Readiness of their nuclear forces and
they have not now uh but uh the United
States has been uh uh very careful about
what it provides and not appearing uh to
attack the Russian Homeland but if we'll
go back in time to the the Cold War
there was this established line of
direct communication between the US and
and uh and Mos go to prevent nuclear
escalation do we know if there's
something similar in place at the
moment well those uh lines of
communication were uh are still in use
you know they talk about the you know
the the red phone uh it's not actually a
phone it's actually a teletype U but
there those Communications are still in
existence when I was in the Pentagon uh
a colleague brought me down to where
that communication takes place hour they
test the system so it's very easy for
the United States to communicate uh to
the
Russians okay we'll have to leave it
there but we appreciate your insights
mark kenian thank you for speaking to
us thanks for having me on the show