how long can Vladimir Putin afford to
continue his war in Ukraine without
inflicting economic pain on his own
people to talk about this I'm delighted
to be joined today by Alexander Peno
from the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
Alexander thank you so much for being
with us today thank you for having me
it's pleasure and honor I want to take
you back um to the weeks and months
before Russia's invasion of Ukraine you
were living in Moscow working for the
central bank as an advisor correct
descri to me how you would have conveyed
the economic situation back then oh you
know it's uh quite it's it's a good
question and it's interesting uh and
always useful to keep in mind that
before the war Russia economy has was
was in a quite good performance uh
because of it was on its recovery Pace
after covid uh and um uh well uh the
most risks for Russian economy was p
over effects uh from advanced economies
and probably some outbreaks of new of
new pandemic or whatever and then um so
everything was stable and looked stable
and one more very interesting thing
because uh well when the war started
everyone outside of Russia uh repeatedly
and you may probably remember us and um
UK authorities repeatedly told that that
it's going to be a war and here in
Russia
we thought that no it's not going to be
a war it would be super crazy to to have
a war so it's like you know it's like a
big game or whatever so it's a big Bluff
it's not going to be a war and I
remember that a week uh uh before the
fullscale invasion of Ukraine I sat with
my former colleague uh in one of the
Moscow restaurants and he tried so he
was a for um he is an expert in Russia
from uh International organizations and
he tries to convince me that it's going
to be the war and I as an Insider try to
convince him that now it's not going to
be because it's crazy for the economy
it's crazy for people well-being that uh
it will undermine the whole um growth
and development and all efforts of
government to to to to bring economy
back to recovery Pace after CID so and
yeah and all Outsiders were right most
insiders were wrong and now we are where
we are talk to me a little bit about
that early transformation into a war
economy and what that meant for your
colleagues that were working at the
central bank still you left your job at
that point we should say your conscience
wouldn't allow you to to stay in Russia
and you've been in Germany watching
events from here uh pretty much since
then but what did those early weeks and
months look like after the invasion so
uh shortly after the invasion everyone
was shocked I mean there wasn't some
sort of meeting before The Invasion
where Putin will tell his his advisers
and his uh ministers and the chief of
central bank that he's going to invade
no everyone was shocked everyone uh well
all people I spoke with uh was
absolutely terrified and find feel
themselves
devastated but uh then sanctions came
and uh uh speaking on behalf of economic
block of Russian government and Central
Bank so this started to work as
anti-isis managers the role they played
uh a couple of times before so uh it's
very interesting uh also I figured it
out that recently Russia was uh Russia
faced four major crisis during last 15
years it's extremely often compared to
uh any kind of advanced and uh
developing economies so and then two of
these crisis were absolutely handmade it
was first in 2014 first sanction after
annexation of Crimea and then sanctions
which came after uh the full scale
invasion of Ukraine so uh so this people
started to act as anti-crisis managers
and I can remind you that first uh there
was Russian reserves blocked and uh
Russian uh government and Central Bank
retaliate then they banned uh foreign uh
then they banned non-residents to
withdraw liquid assets from Russia uh
then they Tred to develop some sort of
uh defense measures for Russian economy
and they actually put the economy to
into artificial coma so they dealed less
with war outcomes but they deal a lot
with sanctions with pure economic impact
so uh I think that they don't have much
time for
reasoning what they are do why they're
not they they they they had a clue what
they're doing but they didn't have much
time reasoning why they're doing this
yeah because when it comes to assessing
how the Russian economy is doing there
seem to be two radically opposed camps
as you write as well there seem to be
one side that are saying the country is
on the brink of collapse and then the
other that are saying we've never been
stronger look at the growth rates and
actually these Western sanctions are
bowing the economy where do you stand
amid these radically opposed viewpoints
uh well the reality is uh a little bit
complicated and in terms of sanctions I
need to say that there is a some sort of
disend
disentanglement in uh perception of
sanctions within Russian Elites and
Russian bureaucrats so they're dealing
with only sanctions with its economical
outcomes without as I said uh keeping in
mind why the sanctions were actually
imposed so if you are isolated from the
war and it's Po and it's actually
possible if you're working in Moscow and
dealing with only your um part of and
then doing doing your part of your of
the job which for instance related with
financial markets So you you're dealing
with transactions for instance uh what's
going on in Ukraine it's going in
Ukraine you're you you you can even not
be familiar with uh with the news if you
are not checking them uh constantly so
you're are dealing with some struggling
because of transactions and if you every
day you are not reminding yourself why
you're why you're dealing with
transactional problems uh you very very
easy and very fast you will started to
forget uh what was the what was the
reason behind all that so actually uh
and I think this is a big problem with
sanctions the communicational which is
underestimated by uh both in Russia and
here in the west and speaking about the
debate here of course there are two
different polar opinions uh the reality
is somewhere in the middle since
Russia's economy is a big animal is a
big and rigid animal it's quite
complicated
to to be to kill with one shot so uh
with a very short term economy is
performing well it's partly because of
it's it's on it it was on its recovery
growth phase uh second this growth of
course is based uh on uh export revenues
and on high spending the fiscal impulse
uh from Russian authorities in 2022 and
2023 exceeded 10% of GDP uh historical
High uh in Russian's history and uh and
so all this uh and and all uh this
fulfilling uh this economic growth 3.6%
in
2023 uh but uh we need to always keep in
mind that uh since Russian government
will stop spending or decrease spending
growth figures would be different and uh
there is a we already see the big
problem between spending and inflation
inflation is a problem for Russian
authorities it's problem because it will
uh it it will Mount problems uh in the
midterm and then long term but now well
it seems manageable but well it's it's
always a trade-off for policy makers and
and and the actually the major reason of
the inflation the primary reason of the
inflation is State spending so there is
a problem of right and the leftand in
Russian economy with one hand Russian
Central Bank trying to mitigate
inflation to t uh price growing and with
another hand government uh continuous
spending and mostly on War I mean uh
Putin committed War EXP is in 2024
approximately 8% of GDP it's another
history record uh since in in in the the
history of modern Russia since the the
state was established after the
collapsing of Soviet Union and it's
enormous I mean never before uh Russia
spent so much and here are
extremely uh High wages of those people
who are in trenches uh State Demand on
uh weapons and ammunition and inflation
of Enterprises which is much higher than
the average over economy and if Russia
continue to so Putin will need to choose
sooner or later uh between three uh
major go between his three priorities
financing the War uh maintaining
people's well-being so uh paying
pensions at the same amount keeping
wages and keeping people happy with the
payments and uh lower inflation so all
three goals in one time it's impossible
that's something you you refer to as
Putin's Tri Lama isn't it trying to
balance those three things at once I
want to talk a little bit more about oil
because of course Putin did manage to
find new buyers in China India and
turkey for example but that has also led
to a kind of a shift in power dynamics
and I'm particularly interested in how
that relates to Russia's relationship to
China you know Russia is very much the
junior partner there how will that play
out in the future do you think
economically so economically the
dependency of uh dependency of Russia on
China is growing but China I would say
benefits this uh kind of relationship a
lot and enjoying uh and enjoying it it
it's quite cheap for China I mean uh for
uh Russia was a tiny market for Chinese
producers but after uh the fullscale
invasion of Ukraine it's it's uh
transformed into medium Market we see
that uh for Chinese uh po policy makers
it's quite easy to massage Putin's ego
saying that he's a great uh man and
leader of a great country but uh and
which brings to China cheap energy
resources first and for theost then uh
Chinese companies of I would say second
and third row since Chinese companies of
the thir of the first row and Chinese
banks are quite um I'm trying not to get
along with Russia so much so showing
that they are resp ing red lines uh
drawn by the West so uh but but but but
but second uh but second row company
then third row and companies and Banks
they're all enjoying this growing
dependency so uh and and this will grow
I mean uh so Russia will be more
dependent on China not only in terms of
uh having a a buyer
on Russian energy resources but also uh
in terms of technological import uh car
making so there were only two car U car
makers on Russian Market before it was
the whole world compete there and now
there is only Russian after us and 14
Chinese Brands I mean it's it's huge and
it's only and this transition happens
only during two years in in in there is
also a remarkable example uh from um
from the region of heavy vehicles uh the
uh the share of Chinese heavy vehicles
and trucks on Russian Market uh incre SK
rocketed it is increased on 600 uh%
during one year just mindblowing it's BL
it is it is and uh since when Russian
producers like Ural and Kamas uh so they
uh try they were focused on import
substitution and uh fulfilling the
demand from uh from the Army from the
state Chinese uh Chinese industry just
just set the market they occupied the
market and it would be quite complicated
to push them out if and when or when
Russia will think to do this right so
it's fair to say that Russia has found
new buyers for its energy but there are
other areas where Western sanctions have
been hurting the economy a little bit
more especially in the area of
Technology maybe you have a couple of
examples you can share about how that's
affecting the economy uh so in terms of
uh technology there is Russia you know
uh not developing its offshore gas and
oil uh because uh there is no access to
technology Russia lost uh from from what
I heard Russia lost uh its leadership it
was it wasn't a leadership but it has a
claim to be a leader in terms of AI in
terms of biomedical Technologies and um
Russia's industry struggling to get uh
hardware and um uh so both hardware and
software so they're switching from uh uh
from Western companies to Chinese
vendors and now they're feeling
difficulties with payments and also
payments and transactions all these
settlements issue is also a bottleneck
uh for Russia and this bottleneck was
created because of
sanctions uh there is a very interesting
uh story because there is a room for uh
interesting development between Russia
and China in terms of creating uh
parallel infrast parallel settlement
infrastructure which uh maybe in the
super long term not we're very we
decades from uh when it started to
undermine dollar dominance which Russian
uh propaganda is trying to say but it's
but Russia and China dealing a lot on
this issue uh and it's also an indicator
that uh this is a pro this is a
problematic area created by by by
sanctions so in terms of uh coming back
to technology there are problems with
computers with
semiconductors uh which uh Russia cannot
fulfill uh itself which Russia cannot
substitute domestically or from China so
uh Russian um businesses now forced to
deal with uh not systemic Solutions but
with different kind of schemes with
different kind of third countries kind
of proxies uh which can be uh you which
which can be easily traced and banned by
sanctions uh on so in general it uh
limits Russian productivity and we see
that wages are growing and inflation are
growing but Russian productivity is not
growing at all is there is there anger
among the business community no no it's
not an anger since
uh they I I I don't I I don't know I
would say correct correctly to say I I
know nothing about the anger but uh
business Community I know no one who is
quite who is happy with the with the
current situation so uh and uh the
attitude of Russian business and Russian
bureaucrats I would describe with the
very you know infantile uh formula that
can we go back to February 2022 when
okay there is a geopolitical struggle
with the west or how our leader
understand that but there is no war
which distracting resources and which is
really devastating but uh because uh but
because of the isolation uh because of
the design of personal sanctions and
because of lots of people are in the
lists with the bad reasoning uh why they
are here because someone called them
that they are near Putin or whatever so
the anti-western sentiment is growing in
Russia and this is well on the long term
I think it's bad since once uh this war
end and uh well both countries need to
think well Russia will not disappear and
EU will not disappear so um uh so Union
and Russia will need to think how they
will live uh how they will be neighbors
uh in the future well and uh and this
anti-western sentiment of course will
poison uh this future for years and does
does that anti-western sentiment also
apply to the economic policy makers and
advisers that you know you used to work
with I find fascinating that people uh
that some people who were responsible
for attracting foreign investors in
Russian market now are actually quite
skillful uh policy makers who are
designing obstacles on the path of
Western companies to withdraw their
assets and to and to leave Russia so
some of these people feel themselves
really offended and uh they are acting
in a retaliation mood some of them you
know they they think that they they are
they they like fatalists so they're
dealing with the situation but I think
that that here is it is a big problem
since uh neither one side nor another
knows how to live how to deal with each
other in the future the very the very
simple example is in terms of uh
exchanges institutional cooperation
between Russia Russian institutions in a
very wide range in science and
universities and corporate world and the
West so all this stopped and this all
and and and this looks like a double
sarcophagi human capital so there is
external pressure Russia uh the West who
who doesn't want to or who are not
dealing with Russians anymore because
they're Russians and and from the inside
uh since every contact uh should be
traced or um people from FSB are in
interested in every contacts in every
actions and why so why you're reading
why you're reading for Western article
why you're doing this they are
questioning people it all creates uh the
very very bad environment so people are
you know stopping to even be interested
in what's going on here and um very easy
and and and Russian science and Russian
universities very easy you will become
you know a cut off the uh uh the the um
the frontier the science Frontier and
the the most recent developments uh
different science fields and uh as I
said in the long run it's dramatically
decrease and damages the quality of
human capital in Russia and it's of
course disturbing do you think on the
other side that you'll also see a deeper
academic cooperation with the likes of
China and India as a result of this I so
there are issues with the collaboration
in China which are also disturbing since
there are uh multiple cases uh when FSB
accusing Russian scientists uh in a
state treason because of their
collaboration with China so I think
Russian scientists are quite uh careful
in this kind of collab ation too but um
uh it's you know the the science the
language of international science is
English and in Russia everything which
is in in English now sounds bad and then
the level of knowledge uh of Chinese is
increasing but we only two we it's only
two years of Russian pivot to the
towards uh East so it's not enough to
have you know to have a bunch of Chinese
Watchers of experts who are who can
fulfill the growing Demand on China same
with India there wasn't uh
Russia Russia has a very few India
Watchers uh even in a very peaceful
times uh they couldn't appear
accidentally because uh Russian
president decided to to to go on a war
against Ukraine and and all country were
forced to do what what what it's doing
so on the one hand you have this kind of
a brain drain but if you look at the
labor market General things look quite
good unemployment is down wages in the
defense sector are up this will end as
soon as the war ends and I'm wondering
if in a kind of a twisted way Putin
actually has an economic incentive to
prolong this as long as possible this is
it's there is a very interesting
backdrop on what you're calling the good
side so unemployment when unemployment
is on this historically low level so
it's a
2.8% uh it basically means that there is
no workers within the economy so if
there would be any kind of external
demand open or internal demand so for
instance uh China will need uh Russian
cars uh and after us will say okay we
can fulfill this demand they simply
cannot find people who will assemble the
cars because there is no workers so in
Russian Market is it is it's good
probably good situation in terms of
worker since uh employers are forced to
pay them more so people keep their jobs
and not uh not leaving their jobs and go
to other employers but uh on the back
side uh but but there is also other side
so there are three major forces on
Russian markets who are competing for
the labor force it is an army itself who
literally need men to put them on the
trenches and this men on the front line
they're getting uh enormous salaries and
the problem here is once the war end uh
there is no reason for the state to keep
the salaries and uh this will so uh it
is it is a big an open question to me
how uh Russian authorities will manage
this problem which is actually I think
semi social so there are people who
think that they are war heroes who want
to be treated as war heroes and uh their
salaries are unbearable burden for other
taxpayers uh both on corporates and on
the individual s so uh it would be a
problem the second Force who is
competing for Russian uh for
the second force is uh military industry
complex which is extended uh when I'm
calling when I'm saying military
industry complex I mean not only uh
industry which produces uh stuff for the
Army I mean weapons Armory tanks uh guns
and soever and supplies but also civil
part of Industry which are now working
three shifts and they also uh they
recruiting women on a typically men uh
professions like drivers truck drivers
heavy machinery operators and so uh they
also using teenagers Labor uh in drones
assembly lines because there is no
workers in Russia and they are also
competing for a labor force and third is
the rest of economy the Civil part of
economy I mean there is shortages uh
there is no sector in Russia uh which
doesn't feel shortages of workers right
now so the situation isn't uh super
bright and there is no migrant infl low
uh especially after uh crocus
terroristic attack so migrants are not
feeling this they even before crocus
they never feel themselves safe in
Russia uh well Russia is quite
nationalistic country we need I need to
admit this uh but now uh the and so
migrants inflow is almost stopped and
the situ and and and this is a
limitation on development of of the
economy which also means that uh prices
will go up because because because
Enterprises cannot uh raise the
productivity and also productivity is
limited by sanctions by technological
sanctions so uh the situation is okay in
terms of uh current moment in this
particular moment Russian feel
themselves quite rich and wealthy but uh
but but but its perception will change
in three years or in um in the midterm I
would say 3 years it's in the midterm
when uh situation will change and
situation will change so when I'm
writing about uh some time frame uh I
usually uh back on uh um on on a time
frame provided by military experts who
are saying that uh in terms of uh so
from the pure military standpoint uh for
the war for The Stance of War uh it's
the next 12 18 months would be decisive
and because the economy and The Stance
of Russian economy is the function of
what's going on at the front line if
Putin uh will decide to accelerate and
to to escalate and uh and if Russia want
to have another offensive it would be
some extra expenditures from from the
budget and some extra pressure and
tightness on the system so the equation
would be different so uh for uh for if
we are talking about from 12 to 18
months time frame uh with the current
conditions so the situation would be
relatively the same as it's today Putin
has enough money to uh to continue all
to to fulfill all three his goals after
that uh he will face uh budget burden
budget problems because of inflation you
know you mentioned earlier that Putin is
spending 8% of GDP on defense I think
about a third of this year's budget is
is going in that direction that is of
course at the expense of other areas
like social spending Health Care
education are Russian people feeling the
effects of that sort of prioritization
already so social spending is not cut
and uh it's actually accelerated so um
there was a very interesting Trend we're
witnessing right now so very interesting
um the changes in people's attitude of
wealth distribution since '90s and the
first time ever we see this so because
of the because people from a low uh
income Stratus are pure to are pure
beneficiaries of this war they feel
themselves more rich and happy and and
they think that the situation with
distribution of wealth within the
economy is more fair than it was before
so we're in a very paradoxical situation
that uh uh people are not feeling uh
people live quite badly before now their
living conditions
improved uh they are not uh thinking uh
they they don't have any time or any
kind of longtime Horizon they are not
planning for a long time uh so uh
they're living to they're living with
today and for today they're fine so
people are noticing that their life is
changing but for but for some people
life changed in a good way so they are
pretty happy with that you've mentioned
before that the longer this war
continues the worse The Hangover will be
and I'm not going to ask you to try to
predict when the war will end but I am
interested in your take on how Vladimir
Putin will deal with a bad hangover I
think
uh that people's uh living standards
will decrease but they will decrease uh
moderately so we will see uh so people
will have um less money because of
because of inflation so probably the
figures they will see from their SMS
from Banks would be relatively the same
but uh the purchasing the consumer
capacity of This Ss will be different
then uh I think we will see we will
witness a growing level of accidents uh
with Machinery with the um with with
with floods with fires with the with the
utilities with all this stuff because of
uh um because of the sanctions so it's
complicated to find particles for uh for
for the industry and uh because of
underfinancing the whole industry people
will see that uh so there would be less
roads built and less less industry less
infrastructure would be built because
the cost of this construction is rais in
because of the inflation so I think he
will choose uh gradual uh woring of uh
living standards and he will of course
uh say that it's all because of the West
it's all because of the cruel West all
because of the
sanctions and and this is very important
what we need to um realize about Russia
Russia is on its Survival Mod so when
we're looking on its on this with our
matrics of normal business cycle well
it's okay and then then here we can say
that there is no bright future in the
midterm but
if they are super happy and they're
encouraging themselves when when they
are when they can bypass sanctions when
they can find something new very
temporary and they're encouraging with
all this teeny tiny success and all this
means survival Modia so control of the
Ming might be the most powerful force
there Alexander Peno thank you so much
for talking to us today thank you