EU leaders have backed new sanctions
against Iran Following last weekend's
attack on Israel during talks in
Brussels on Wednesday they decided to
direct sanctions at Tan's drone and
missile producers these were used
extensively in the assault the leaders
also discussed the wars in Gaza and in
Ukraine Bradley Bowman is senior
director at the foundation for defense
of democracies in Washington DC welcome
back to DW Bradley tell us what's your
opinion on new sanctions against Iran do
you think that they'll have the desired
impact I think the new sanctions on uh
missile and drone Iranian missiles and
drones is laudable it's necessary but
far from sufficient I mean this is a
logical step right we had uh more than
350 uh missiles and drones launched at
Israel in an unprecedented direct attack
from the Islamic Republic of Iran uh we
saw a a lifting of sanctions following
uh uh as as part of the Iran deal uh
that uh many thought was unwise and this
is beginning to walk some of that back
but I would say this is just a first
step of many sanctions that should be
restored and actually enforced we've
seen a real problem with Iranian oil
imports and the more oil they import of
course the more Revenue they have and
they're not going to build spend that
money on helping the Iranian people of
course they're going to spend that money
and building more missiles and drones
and exporting more terrorism so so
you're saying that the sanctions are far
from sufficient explain uh where you
think they they should be headed and and
what should be agreed
next yeah now I don't mean to be
reflexively critical I mean I want to
look at these sanctions in detail and
see how strong they are but if uh it
seems like a logical and appropriate
step to sanction the tools by which uh
Iran conducted this attack so that's
laudable for sure but I'm just saying
there's a lot of existing sanctions that
are already on the books both in the US
and in Europe they're not being enforced
and I and and I named oil and sanctions
as one of them uh and you also have
other uh sanctions related to the arms
embargo and and more broadly that could
be snapped back and uh as members of uh
the UN Security Council France UK and us
you laterally could do that simply with
a letter and so I would encourage that
those governments to consider that step
if we're speaking about new sanctions 5
years ago the US government designated
Iran's notorious revolutionary guards as
a terrorist organization uh why do you
think the EU hasn't done this yet if
we're talking about
sanctions it's a great question I I
think um it's a mistake not to do so the
Iran we often say I think accurately is
the world's leading state sponsored
terrorism and the means by which the
Islamic Republic of Iran conducts that
terrorism
is the Islamic revolutionary guard core
specifically their cuds force uh and so
uh let me just highlight that the
individuals camil killed in the April 1
Damascus strike uh were irgc officers
who were busy doing what they were
smuggling weapons to Hezbollah for the
purposes of taring Israelis in their
homes and by by the way we've seen uh uh
thousands of rockets and missiles
launched at Israel from Lebanon
since October 8th so a lot of focus has
been on Gaza as it should be there's now
a lot of focus on this unprecedented
direct attack from Iran but don't miss
the the the low-scale and some not not
sometimes not so low-scale War that's
already going on in Israel's North as
well with the varsity Terror proxer team
and that's
Hezbollah the fact that Iran directly
attacked Israel for the first time on
Saturday despite uh all the warnings
Iran has crossed this line now do you
think it's going to be possible to
return to what is known as a shadow war
that we've known about all these
years it's a great question for more
than four decades the Islam Republic of
Iran has pursued a asymmetrical Terror
uh proxy strategy where they've Advanced
their foreign policy and attacked their
neighbors while displacing the uh
consequences and counter punches on to
others it's often said that Iran is
happy to fight Israel to the last Arab
uh but now we see an unprecedented
direct attack from Iran uh and I think
it's fair to say that the Middle East
has changed I don't want to overplay it
but uh you're going to see um I fear if
the United States and Israel in
particular don't respond strongly enough
this is this is you know the Rubicon has
been crossed I think they're going to
feel that they can do this again in the
future and Israel certainly feels like
it now has license to attacked certainly
covertly what it's already been doing
inside of round but but overtly and so I
think the Middle East will be changed uh
I think it does remind everyone anyone
who's willing to be objective about this
that the real threat to Regional
security is Iran and it really uh I
think prioritizes the need for building
a uh comprehensive Regional security
architecture that includes Arabs
Americans and Israelis not for the
purpose of aggression but for the
purpose of detecting deterring and
defeating aggression when it comes
there's been quiet work for years on
this between the US and its Gulf
cooperation Council countries with Saudi
Arabia and the United Arab in the lead
um but you know let's look at what
happened this weekend you had the
jordanians helping Israel defeat this
attack from Iran you have reports of
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Emirates potentially sharing
intelligence that was useful in
defeating this attack and so this really
was the region saying uh no Iran we
don't support what you did and we're
going to help defeat this attack that
was aimed at killing Israelis in their
homes some analysts have call have been
calling this an Arab Israeli axis do you
agree with that character I
ation yeah you know these these labels
get thrown around I mean I think the
bottom line is that what was so
significant about the Abraham Accord
Accords a few years ago by which um uh
by which Bahrain and the United Arab
Emirates normalized relations with
Israel is that they were publicly
acknowledging what Arab most Arab
governments have known for a long time
and that's what I said earlier that the
main problem the main threat the threat
in the region Islam is the Islamic
Republic of Iran not Israel and so they
were simply publicly and diplomatically
acknowledging what they know to be true
and you know like like a bully on the
playground Iran wants to keep the other
kids divided and distracted and and
that's one of the great negative
consequences I would say of the horrific
October 7th attack on Israel the worst
Slaughter of Jews since the Holocaust is
that it slowed normalization between
Saudi Arabia and Israel um but I don't
think it ended it and I think it would
be a mistake to let those efforts end
because that truly would be good news
for Saudi Arabia good news for Israel
good news for the region and bad news
for the Islamic Republic of Iran which
wants to conduct aggression because uh
it really would identify who the real
threat is and would build that
comprehensive Regional security
architecture that I was talking about
they will make it harder to conceal
aggression and get away and get away
with it I want to go back and talk a
little bit about what you were saying
earlier and and the response to to these
uh to this assault by Iran over the
weekend Israel says it's going to
retaliate we don't know when or how
what do you think we can expect in terms
of the Israeli
reaction you know it's hard to say in
terms of the wi and how you're exact
you're asking a very fair question um
you know I follow these issues closely
for my part I hope that Israel takes its
time I I I think uh the world is
reminded of who the real villain is in
the region uh Israel is beginning to
pocket some important concessions or
advances if you will from um from its
European and American Partners I think
it should continue that um and but
definitely has to respond uh you know if
if Israel is only in the business of
receiving punches and not counter
punching that's a formula for getting
more punches and so they have to respond
they but how they respond I think is a
matter of debate you could see
everything from something all the way
from an attack on Iran's nuclear program
and the regime itself which really is
the Puppet Master orchestrating these
Terror puppets proxy puppets or you
could see attacks on their energy
infrastructure or military bases or more
attacks on irgc forces uh throughout the
region particular in Syria or a
combination of them and also with cyber
effects not just kinetic so there's a
range of activities but the main point
here to take away I think for your
viewers is that on Friday pres the
Friday before the attack President Biden
was asked what he wanted to say to the
Islamic republ of Iran and he said don't
don't how did Iran respond they Shrugged
and proceeded to conduct an
unprecedented attack on the state of
Israel clearly American Israeli
deterrence is tattered that is
unacceptable and dangerous I would say
and Israel understandably after having
350 missiles and drones launched them
feels a need to respond to restore
deterrence and there's two types of
deterrence there's deterrence by denial
and deterrence by punishment and in a
tough neighborhood in a tough region you
can't neglect the deterrence by
punishment good to talk with you Bradley
Bowman with the foundation for defense
ensive democracies thank you so much for
your analysis
Bradley thank you let's pick up a couple
of those points with Dr Arash aizi who's
a writer and historian he authored a
book called The Shadow Commander suani
the US and Iran's Global Ambitions
welcome to DW are more sanctions do you
think an effective response to Iran's
strike on
Israel I mean I don't think sanctions do
much by this point Iran is already one
of the most sanctioned it's probably the
most sanctioned country in the world it
also happens to have relations with
Russia which is already another heavily
sanctioned country um we've already seen
that a lot of countries don't honor
sanctions or find ways of going around
them and even those who want to enforce
them um find sort of a bit of exhaustion
around them so no I think sanctions will
have limited effect okay so looking at
what happened last Saturday and the
repercussions Iran has warned that it
would strike again with greater to force
if Israel or the US retaliate for their
retaliation for Israel's strike on
Iran's Consul building in Syria so do
you think Iran is prepared for uh Israel
to
escalate I think they're not prepared I
think they uh thought they could do this
attack and frankly get away with it
they've been going out of their way to
say we want the other countries um
beforehand um the head of the um
political ideological office of H so
basically someone close to the Supreme
Leader um said that you know emphasize
that we didn't want to kill anybody in
this attack um Iranian diplomats
beforehand went out of the way to say we
didn't Target population centers so no I
don't think they're ready for escalation
with Israel I mean I think they know
that there's a appetite against it in
the United States investing capitals um
in the region certainly the Arab
countries definitely don't want a Iran
Israel war to breakout that can be a
catastrophe for everyone so no I don't
think Islamic Republic is prepared for
it at all and I don't think it wanted it
I think it took the risk of the April 13
attacks hoping that it can get away with
it without a direct confrontation with
Israel it's interesting isn't it because
of course Iran doesn't want this and
Israel probably can't afford to fight
two Wars at the same
time yeah look it's this is this is a
interesting thing um that I think
neither Iran nor Israel nor United
States not Arab countries not Europe not
the people of Iran not the people of
Israel not the people of United States I
don't think anyone wants this war like I
think um the the the Israelis who are
now calibrating what Target to pick
they're hoping they're able to attack a
a somewhere or or someplace that um that
could not lead to Iranian retaliation
but of course everyone every side has to
speak of retaliation there's this idea
of deterrence also many scholars when
they look at it I mean it's not really
clear what this deterrence means all the
time um because you know you think you
you're deterred but you can also get
yourself into a bigger conflict and then
this cycle continues uh what is so I
think nobody wants this war certainly on
the Iranian Society no one is interested
in fighting Israel um you know Iranians
as a whole don't really feel like they
have a stake um in the conflict of
Israel uh with with the Arab Neighbors
in many ways and um they're they're not
interested in joining this fight um and
they certainly don't support the
regime's anti-israel falling policy
there um so look on a popular level and
on a government level I don't think
people want this war but unfortunately
history is full of wars that began based
on
miscalculations um of others um and uh
Wars that ironically no one wanted but
still they broke out so this is why it's
a moment that calls for serious
leadership um on site of all the states
involved um to prevent uh the escalation
and and breaking out of a direct War
something that has been a threat since
the last six months in fact it has been
a threat for many years now and I hope
we can do anything everything possible
to avoid it and and a word then about
where support for Iran might come from
because the narrative tends to be that
Iran is a pariah it's a it's um it's
operating uh in the shadows and in the
corners does it have any friends that
would support it in a potential uh
further
strike well first of all of course the
Islamic Republic sits at the top of a
the so-called axis of resistance a group
of militias in the region that are very
significant political military forces in
their own countries the houis are uh
effectively thean Yen um and they are
perhaps one of the most seriously
anti-israel forces in the region they're
all these Iraqi militias today's the
Iraqi prime minister is allied with them
with the protan militia so in many ways
the governments that are controlling the
capitals of Yemen and and Iraq are um
are all allied with Iran in Lebanon of
course is Hezbollah that has the um that
is the strongest force in Lebanese
Society in in many ways in terms of it's
I think it's hated by many Lebanese
people but materially it has a strong
military power um and it doesn't have
much Rivals so there there's Lebanon the
Syrian regime that's more complicated I
I don't think the Syrian regim would in
any way at all want to join a fight with
Israel but it doesn't all have the power
on its on its own the access uh operates
on Syrian territory when it comes to
other countries um you know they'll
decide on Case by case basis Russia and
China have some relations with Iran they
I don't think they want to get into a
fight with Israel um Arab countries are
mostly Pro Western in the region um
other than the ones that I mentioned um
you know but they are also they don't
want to get into a fight they're proest
but they're not pro-israeli and they
don't want to get into this fight so I
think the regional picture um is quite
complicated when it comes to the war but
what is very clear though is that and
you know this will be a terrible War um
that nobody can afford and a lot of
these countries that I mentioned I mean
Yemen and Syria and Iraq have
experienced different versions of Civil
Wars for much of the last 20 years
Lebanon um is economically destroyed a a
very exhausted place these are not
places that are ready for war so a war
would be a catastrophe on every level um
for all the Constitutions constituencies
involved a fascinating analysis thank
you for walking us through that writer
historian and political scientist Arash
aizi thank
you William Wexler is senior director of
the rafic hereri center and Middle East
programs at the Atlantic Council welcome
to DW let's start with that complicated
Balancing Act facing Arab countries in
this conflict does future cooperation
with Arab states like Saudi Arabia form
part of Israel's calculation when it
comes to calibrating its response to
Iran's
attack absolutely uh one of the real
differences in what we've seen now and
what we saw just a little while ago is
that the Israel's war in Gaza was
dividing it from its Arab neighbors
Israel's conflict with Iran is bringing
Israel together with its Arab neighbors
so it's a very different Dynamic so too
much and you RIS
inflaming the the inflaming Allies that
you spent decades uh uh trying to get on
side indeed the average um uh Arab um is
very upset about Israel's war on Gaza um
the average Arab government is very
concerned about the threat that Iran uh
poses so it's a balancing act um that uh
that these governments have to do most
of these governments also have no love
LW for Hamas um so it's a balancing act
that they've been doing now ever since
October 7th and and Jordan's position uh
seems particularly precarious how does
Jordan's King Abdullah balance strong
public support for Palestinians with
shooting down Iranian
missiles well it's a very clear
narrative for him um he is defending the
sovereignty of Jordanian airspace the
Iranians uh entered into his airspace
that was an invasion of sovereignty
um without the permission of Jordan and
so he was fully in his rights to defend
his country and his people um from those
that's the narrative that he is
presenting to his people that's a
narrative that he's pres to the world
that is also legally and practically
correct it will also be viewed by some
as a a support for Israel and is there
any benefit to Iran from Jordan shooting
down Iranian
missiles well Iran is trying to walk a
fine line of their own they're trying to
uh enhance deterrence against Israel
because they're very upset about the
success that Israel has had in targeting
a number of senior uh Iranian military
leaders they're also trying to um not
provoke a wider Regional War they're
very happy with the situation that they
have and they're trying to create a new
normal which allows them to strike
directly at Israel for the very first
time
and for that to somehow be accepted as
as a way of behavior that um aligns with
the rest of their malign Behavior
throughout the region we'll pick that
apart now firstly why did Iran decide
that now was the time to attack Israel
directly instead of through
proxies really because of Israel's
success um back in the beginning of the
month they uh they targeted a number of
senior leaders um including one that was
very important to the ks Force um one
that has a personal relationship with
the supreme leader in Iran um and they
killed him um and that was seen by Iran
as something that they had to respond to
um they don't like the fact that Israel
is so successful at taking out their
their generals okay and so this new
normal that you mentioned tell us how
Iran benefits from
that this is uh part of the Iranian
playbook for many decades now what they
do is they March up the escalation
ladder until they're pushed down they
March back up again and what they try to
do is create an environment in which
they can get the world to accept
behavior that would otherwise be
considered completely unacceptable they
are literally the only country in the
world that routinely gives Precision
Weaponry to non-state actors and
instructs them to fire them across
International borders to intentionally
Target civilians but they do that so
routinely that we don't even comment on
it they've had the they've had their
allies in Hezbollah move tens of
thousands of Israelis out of their home
in the north a year ago that would have
you would have said that was a Prelude
to war but they've done that below War
they have their allies the houthis um in
the Babel mem streight shut down all
international shipping again a year ago
that would have been a Prelude to war
they've been able to do that below the
threshold of war and now they're trying
to establish the ability to to hit
Israel directly from Iranian territory
so given that new normal as you describe
it if Israel does act militarily and
decisively what does Iran do does it go
back up that escalation ladder does it
want a full-on direct conflict with
Israel Iran doesn't want a full-on
conflict and is and Israel shouldn't
want to full on conflict Israel has its
hand full in Gaza uh right now and and
their other military activities that
they need to do um so hopefully uh uh we
won't be in that scenario what folks in
Jerusalem are trying to figure out is
how do they send a signal that tells uh
Iran that they do not accept the ability
for Iran to Target them directly but at
the same time does not result in a wider
Regional War that's what that's why
they've been taking the days to work
this out in Jerusalem okay that's very
clear thank you so much for walking us
through that will Wexler from the
Atlantic Council thank you now Germany's
foreign minister has concluded her visit
to Israel aimed at diffusing tensions
with Iran an Elena bbok met with Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to
discuss the Fallout from Iran's
unprecedented aerial attack at the
weekend earlier in the day uh she met
with President ISAC Herzog in Jerusalem
like many of Israel's allies Germany has
been urging deescalation in this
conflict speaking at Tel aviv's benorian
air report as bbok warned that Iran's
attack on Israel shows tan is not afraid
of
escalation I am reiterating here today
my total condemnation of this dangerous
act and have told my Israeli Partners
very clearly Israel has our complete
solidarity Iran will face
consequences we in the EU placing
sanctions against Iran and will continue
to work on
these at the same time it is critical
that this highly flammable situation
does not turn into a regional
Wildfire Iran and its proxies like
Hezbollah or the houthis must not pour
any more oil onto the
fire last our Jerusalem correspondent
Rebecca writs whether the Israeli
government was likely to heed the German
foreign Minister's call for
restraint well Phil I think These
Warnings from from many of Israel's
allies will be take will be being taken
into consideration when it comes to
Israel's plan of Counterattack but the
question is just how much we have been
seeing Israel taking advice taking calls
from world leaders including US
President Biden but today we've seen the
foreign Ministers of the UK and Germany
as well but but also uh you know
listening to Regional allies uh all of
whom have been warning restraint if
Israel is going to attack as it says uh
it is vowing to do so it says that it
has no choice but to retaliate uh you
know we we we're seeing that sort of
rhetoric but we're hearing also uh
Netanyahu saying again today to uh David
Cameron and analina bebok that Israel
would make this decision on its own that
it isn't going to be pressured by the
Allies though it will no doubt be taking
be taking this advice into consideration
um uh you know I I think the the the
leaders we've been seeing you know the
war cabinet meeting day after day and
they're not able to reach an agreement
so these calls from Regional leaders and
from allies certainly playing into the
decision what we are hearing and what we
can be pretty sure about is that Israel
is going to Counterattack we've been
hearing reporting from axus an American
Outlet uh saying that there were the
sources within sources close to the
discussions were saying that you know
Israel had given the decision to
retaliate on Monday but had decided not
to go ahead with that because of
operational reasons so you certainly
we're teetering on the edge of seeing a
retaliation but of course when and just
how severe we we don't know yet the
German foreign minister also called for
more humanitarian Aid to be delivered to
gaza's civilian population how much is
getting through
now I think it's safe to say that
certainly not enough that is what
humanitarian Aid workers on the ground
are saying and it is still uh
humanitarian catastrophe unfolding
inside Gaza we did see a lot of pressure
put on Israel in the wake of the attack
on the world Central Kitchen Aid workers
it killed seven of those Aid workers
including uh foreign Nationals now we've
seen huge pressure largely from the US
but other allies as well urging Israel
to increase the humanitarian uh Aid that
it is allowing into the Gaza Strip they
said in the wake of that attack that
they were determined to do so we had the
defense minister saying they were going
to quote flood Gaza with aid but uh that
is not in fact what we're seeing we have
seen an uptick we've seen the border
crossing that they were going to open in
the north open but only one Convoy cross
over and we've seen also some aid though
only eight trucks coming from that ashd
Port which was another one of the the
measures that they were taking in the
wake of that attack we've seen 200
trucks enter just a little over on
Monday comparing that to 500 trucks a
day which is what we were seeing before
the war then you know certainly we can
say there's not enough Aid going into
Gaza even still okay thank you Rebecca
Rebecca rits in
Jerusalem as tensions between Israel and
Iran increase the International
Community is being warned not to lose
sight of the conflict in Gaza and the
suffering of civilians there Israel is
pressing on with its military campaign
aiming to destroy Hamas which committed
the October 7th Terror attacks the UN
has warned of the threat of famine in
Gaza and is calling on donor countries
to provide nearly three billion in
additional Aid by the end of the
year urgent supplies descend on Gaza as
signs of the war smolder in the
distance these airdrops are a
desperately needed
Lifeline not only for their food and
Essentials what made me resort to this
parachute with the lack of cloth in the
city there is nothing and our house was
damaged we resorted to this parachute
and it was incredible that we were able
to make it work it was not easy but
thanks God it
worked Aid access is still severely
restricted the UN says 40% of attempted
deliveries to Northern Gaza were denied
last week while most Israeli forces have
withdrawn from Gaza St on residential
areas
continue children were among the victims
of this bombing in
Rafa like the rest of Rafa residents we
were shocked when at around 10:45 in the
evening an Israeli rocket hit a house
that shelters his place
people my sister's son-in-law her
daughter and her children were having
dinner an Israeli missile demolish their
house over their
head death has become a normal thing the
people in the whole world got used to
our death three people are killed in
Gaza 20 died 35 died it has become
normal we have just become
numbers the Hamas ran Gaza Health
Ministry says nearly 34,000 people have
been killed in the
conflict Israeli officials say the war
is not over and they still plan to send
Ground Forces into Rafa where more than
half of gaza's population are Sheltering