Israel says that it is still planning a
military offensive in the city of Rafa
in southern Gaza and that's despite the
fact that it has already withdrawn many
of its troops from the area allies
including the United States have warned
Israel against mounting this operation
but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu says that it's necessary for
the fight against
Hamas air strikes on Rafa seen from
Israel which has for months said they
would be followed up by a ground invas
prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has
not softened his
line we will complete the elimination of
the Hamas brigades including in Rafa
there is no force in the world that will
stop
us but 6 months into the war Israel now
faces strong pressure from its main Ally
the US to rein military operations and
not to mount a fullscale ground Invasion
into Rafa
where more than a million people live in
close
conditions we have made clear to Israel
that we think a full-scale military
invasion of Rafa would have an
enormously harmful effect on those
civilians and that it would ultimately
hurt Israel's security Israel has two
ways to root out Hamas a fullscale
ground campaign or a more targeted
one a fullscale Invasion would probably
look like what has already happened in
other parts of Gaza in urban areas like
Han Yunis and Gaza City further north
from
Rafa an air campaign combined with tanks
and troops on the
ground at a potentially catastrophic
cost to
civilians Israel has said it will
evacuate civilians to elsewhere in Gaza
but is given no specifics this kind of
ground Invasion would further antagonize
the US which has conditioned future
Military Support on how Israel treats
civilians in Gaza but Israel has also
shown it can mount targeted operations
earlier this month Commandos recovered
the body of elad kir who had been taken
hostage on October 7th these raids rely
on precise intelligence rather than
overwhelming
Firepower which path Israel chooses may
come down to politics in the US
President Joe bid faces significant
pressure from the left to restrain
Israel while at home Benyamin Netanyahu
faces a public that overwhelmingly wants
to defeat
Hamas once and for
all well I'm joined Now by Colonel Mark
KY and he served over three decades in
the US Marine Court he's now a senior
adviser at the center for strategic and
international studies in Washington DC
colel it's good to have you with us on
this Tuesday we just to start by asking
you can Israel defeat Hamas without
entering
Rafa yeah to that unfortunately is
probably no uh there's been suggestions
that they might surround the city and
then use targeted attacks on identified
uh strongholds but that will take a long
time the Israelis can't find them all
Hamas has been very good about digging
in and hiding so if Israel really wants
to do what it says it wants to do that
is destroy Hamas unfortunately they'll
have to go in on the ground and does
that mean also um accepting the fact
that there will be thousands and
thousands of civilians whose lives will
be endangered per who perhaps also whose
lives will be
killed and unfortunately that's what
would happen we've seen that happen in
the other big cities Gaza and K Yunis
would likely happen in Rafa and it's
exacerbated by the fact that Hamas is
willing to use civilians as human
Shields to protect its military forces
the Israelis might try to move civilians
out and be careful about its use of
Firepower but if it goes in there's no
way to prevent large civilian losses we
have reported now for for quite some
time the Israeli Prime Minister
announcing that an offensive in Rafa is
is in the near future but it still
hasn't happened
um what does that tell you then the fact
that this ground defensive still hasn't
begun well it it says two things first
Israel has been mopping up in Central
and Northern uh Gaza it's also been
distracted by things like these drone
strikes missile strikes from Iran and
then the Israeli
response so it hasn't really had a
chance to focus on Rafa but it is true
that right now doesn't look like the
Israelis are massing the forces they
would need to capture the city in fact
all that's been happening for the last
couple of weeks in Gaza is what you
might call skirmishing most of the
action has been elsewhere and the fact
that we haven't seen this offensive
begin in Rafa what do you think that
means for Hamas is it given Hamas time
to prepare for it and maybe to to
refortify its positions
well it does but Hamas has had 20 years
to fortify its position so another
couple of weeks is not going to make a
lot of difference they probably are
laying in uh weapons and Munitions
although the Israelis are trying very
hard to prevent any military supplies
from from getting in mostly I think the
Hamas is waiting and uh seeing what the
Israelis will do they've also been
infiltrating forces further north
getting them in to K Yunis Gaza City
Israelis are constantly skirmishing with
Hamas forces that pop up uh so to speak
behind Israeli lines and you know
considering what we have seen in the
last six months would you say that the
operations by the
IDF are we approaching a point when
Israel will be able to say with
conviction that it has defeated Hamas
that it's on the road to defeating
Hamas well if the Israelis do take RF up
or do squeeze it they can claim that
they have defeated Hamas and it's an
important distinction between defeated
and destroyed the Israelis have talked
before about destroyed but that's almost
impossible uh there'll be enough of
Hamas left that they can reconstitute
but defeat that is possible the tough
question though is okay what happens
after the Israelis finish with Rafa
either they occupy Gaza which they tried
before and was very unsuccessful and
they don't want to do it and the United
States certainly doesn't want the
Israelis to do that the ideal solution
would be some sort of Arab peacekeeping
Force but Arab countries don't want to
take on that responsibility they also
don't want to be seen to be suppressing
Hamas so the day after Rafa is a
question up in the air and we'll be
talking about that in a couple of weeks
yeah I'm I'm sure we'll be talking about
that for quite some time to come that's
for sure Colonel Mark Canon as always
Colonel it's good to have you on the
program good to get your analysis thank
you thanks for having me on the show