NATO member Poland says a Russian cruise
missile briefly violated its airspace on
Sunday morning Warsaw summoned officials
from the Russian Embassy to demand an
explanation Poland said the missile
entered its territory as it was firing
at Targets in Western Ukraine the city
of Lviv close to the Polish border came
under heavy attack explosions also
rocked the Ukrainian Capital officials
say air defenses shot down roughly a
dozen missiles in and around keev
residents were told to remain in
shelters Poland says it would have shot
down the Russian missile that breached
its airspace if there had been any
indication that it was heading towards a
Target in Poland here's what the defense
minister had to
say at 4:43 a.m. there was a violation
of Poland's airspace by one of the
Russian
missiles the object flew into Poland's
airspace near the town of oero in Lublin
province
and stayed on our territory for 39
seconds it flew about 1,000 to 2,000 M
into our
territory at all times the object was
monitored by Poland's radio tracking
systems beforehand as I said all
strategic security measures were
taken
Marina Moran is a military analyst with
Kings College London and she joins us
now from Munich good to see you as
always Marina uh it is is it reasonable
to believe this was simply an accident
or is the trajectory of such missiles
precisely
predetermined good day Michael well what
we have to understand um there is a
significant difference between cruise
missiles and ballistic missiles cruise
missiles fly at low altitudes they are
essentially if you wish like an UNM
aircraft and so they have different
guidance systems on board such as
terrain mapping um satellite navigation
and they have a degree of
maneuverability in order to remain
undetected so to fly beneath the radar
so here is a possibility while violation
of airspace is a violation regardless of
whether it was 39 seconds or 3 minutes
or whatever it might have been um the
thing here which which we have to
understand the missile might have tried
to evade um certain air defenses located
in Ukraine and therefore ventured
briefly into the Polish territory so you
cannot say that you can completely
determine the course of the missile
understood so let me ask you this
according to the Polish Army the Russian
missile viol ated polish airspace for
just under 40 seconds and flew 2 kilm
into polish territory how serious a
violation is
that well that's dependent on on on the
Polish side to determine of course and
we have seen the Polish defense minister
saying they knew that the missile wasn't
targeting anything on the Polish
territory they were monitoring several
missiles I think up to 10 missiles uh
going to leave therefore they knew that
this missile wasn't an attack on Poland
per se and as I said the missiles have
small room of maneuverability in order
to aade air defenses therefore it is to
assume that it wasn't an intentional
incursion into polish airspace and was
not presenting any direct threat to
Poland being a NATO member which is why
uh Poland didn't shoot it down you
rightly bring up the fact that they were
monitoring several uh missiles m
multiple missiles briefly walk us
through what might have happened the
general procedure if you will on the
Polish side if the radar is suddenly
reveal a Russian missile
approaching well if such a missile
approaches obviously a Polish forces are
put on high alert um the Air Force gets
activated and the missile will be
monitored very closely because there can
also be a failure where a missile falls
on the Polish territory for instance or
whatever um it can be for instance
Ukrainian air defense is trying to shoot
down that missile while it is in the
Polish airspace so there can be multiple
scenarios therefore it's understandable
that um once you detect such a missile
flying it's a hostile missile you put
your forces on high alert and and get
your Aviation up in order to monitor the
situation and prevent potential
escalation Marina here's the big
question I'm sure everybody is wondering
Russian missiles have crossed into
polish airspace before this has raised
the alarm for NATO of which of course
Poland is a member What mechanisms are
in place to prevent Poland and with it
NATO uh from being drawn into a
war well in terms of the mechanisms and
we have seen it at work right now the
statements of the Polish defense
minister acknowledging the fact that
this missile was not targeting anything
in Poland therefore no active Act ction
or proactive action has been taken in
order to shoot down the missile if
Poland had shot down the missile that
might have caused a chain reaction and
of course a response from the Russian
side in this case I do not think that
there can be any response except for
demanding an explanation from the
Russian side so you would likely use
diplomatic mechanisms in order to
clarify the situation rather than using
any sort of kinetic force and I think
the Russian side and and the native side
they're both very careful here Marina
Moran from King's College London thanks
so much for your time and as always your
perspective thank you for having
me