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the Middle East is once again what
everyone is talking about and as if time
did not move on Israel is once again at
the epicenter of the conflict yes visual
politic Community Israel is at War again
Israel formally declares war against
Hamas as it battles to push militants
off its soil fortunately for the Hebrew
country this is not like those Wars of
the 1960s and the 1970s where several
Arab countries suddenly attacked Israel
for the moment it is more reminiscent of
the wars Israel waged against Lebanon in
1982 and 2006 in an attempt to wipe out
the Palestine Liberation Organization
and Hezbollah respectively but what if I
told you that this mes could turn into
an open war between several countries it
probably wouldn't come as a surprise
after all it wouldn't be the first time
this has happened in the Middle East or
to Israel in particular but let me ask
you a question which country could be
the first to declare war on the Hebrew
State well most likely the one that is
already knocking on the door Iran's
warning to the UN if Israel invades Gaza
we will intervene we have our finger on
the trigger indeed visual politic
Community Iran has already sent some
warnings about a possible war with
Israel and this is no small
thing think about it Iran is one of the
three major regional powers in the
Middle East along with Israel and Saudi
Arabia and it has a considerable
military capability however while this
may come as a major shock at the
international level alysts are already
warning of a particularly worrying
possibility if Iran were to go to war
with Israel the United States would most
certainly be drawn into the conflict and
for many this would be the preamble to a
much larger conflict and that has caused
us here on visual politic to ask
ourselves a few questions what have
relations between Iran and the United
States been like why is the United
States so concerned about a possible
Iranian intervention in Israel would the
United States actually attack the
Islamic Republic and more importantly
would it succeed today we're going to
answer these questions but first let's
start at the beginning of the
story in freef
Fall that Iran and the United States
despise each other is nothing new it has
been the case for several decades
however it was not always so in fact
there was a time when they were actually
good friends nevertheless everything
changed with the Islamic revolution of
1979
10 years after Iran became independent
in 1943 the United States began to move
closer to Iran after helping a group of
Iranian Military Officers stage aouar
and overthrow prime minister Muhammad
madc after he nationalized the Anglo
Persian oil company from that moment sha
Resa palavi wildly unpopular among the
Iranian population but with strong
support from Uncle Sam came to power it
was then that the friendship between
Iran and the United States began to
Blossom for instance in 1954 4 the Sha
granted a 25-year permit to us oil
companies to exploit some of the
nationalized oil later in 1957 the two
signed a nuclear cooperation agreement
that became the basis for Iran's nuclear
program and enabled it to obtain its
first nuclear reactor in 1967 and not
only that in 1972 during a visit by
former president Richard Nixon to the
Sha the United States promised to allow
Iran to purchase non-nuclear weapon
systems if it would commit to protecting
us interests against the Soviet Union in
the Middle
East however 1979 came along and the
Islamic revolution turned this beautiful
friendship upside
down Ayatollah kamini came to power Iran
became an Islamic Republic and the
United States became its main enemy
along with Israel from then on their
relationship went downhill and without
any breaks for example in the first 2
years of the Islamic regime Between 1979
and 1981 the United States had to deal
with the American hostage crisis in Iran
later Washington supported Iraq in the
war that Saddam Hussein Unleashed
against the ayatollah's regime between
1980 and 1988 in the meantime the United
States did not hesitate in imposing
sanctions on Iran and in 2002 shortly
after the terrorist attacks on the World
Trade Center in New York former
President Bush included Iran along with
Iraq and North Korea in what he called
the axis of Evil States like these and
their terrorist allies constitute an
axis of Evil arming to threaten the
Peace of the world so relations went
from bad to worse there was however a
moment of calm in all this tension in
2015 10 years after Iran's clandestine
nuclear program was discovered the
United States the Islamic Republic and
other European countries signed the
famous joint comprehensive plan of
action a plan that limited the nuclear
capability Iran could develop and
subjected it to strict monitoring a plan
that fell apart just a few years later
so you see in general the relationship
between Iran and the United States over
the last four decades has been fraught
with tension yes it is true there has
been some temporary resp bite but the
reality is that hostilities have never
ceased in fact these last few years have
made the situation even worse pay close
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attention an accumulation of
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problems certainly there were many who
thought back in 2018 that Iran and the
United States at least had entered a
space of calm with the joint
comprehensive plan of action however if
the world has shown us anything in
recent years it is that we cannot take
anything for granted and that is exactly
what has happened with the apparent calm
between the United States and Iran which
ended up blowing up Trump abandoned Iran
nuclear deal he long scorned in effect
Trump abandoned the program had created
some peace between the United States and
Iran the former president president was
not going to tolerate any more of what
he called empty threats from the
islamist regime the US was quick to
impose tough new sanctions on the regime
hoping that Iran would halt its nuclear
program but guess what Iran has done
since then it basically stopped
complying with the agreement all
together the land of the ayatolla
intensified uranium enrichment to such
an extent that in 2019 the international
atomic energy agency warned that Iran
had already achieved 84% enrichment to
give you an idea a nuclear weapon needs
90% enriched uranium in other words in
2019 they were already on the verge of
achieving it that is why a lot of voices
started to raise the alarm we no longer
have a safety distance of a year
breakthrough to going nuclear Iran is 2
weeks from breakthrough one step away
from arriving at 90% enriched uranium a
sufficient amount for a bomb in order to
transform the bomb into a weapon and
complete its adaptation to a missile
Warhead for a missile about about two
more years are needed faced with this
the Biden Administration which tried to
resume negotiations with Iran on the
nuclear deal has continued with
sanctions against the Iranian regime
attempting to isolate it further
internationally yet this has only ended
up reinforcing friendships that the
United States would prefer to weaken
such as Iran's friendship with
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Russia you see although Iran would have
preferred closer ties with China
international sanctions have proved to
be an uncomfortable obstacle to its
relation
as China does not want to risk losing
the huge Trade It shares with Western
countries for that reason Iran has opted
to strengthen ties with Russia another
International Pariah also hit with a
slew of sanctions initially cooperation
between these two countries was
primarily in the energy field however
Russia's war with Ukraine has expanded
this cooperation to other strategic
Fields check it out Ukraine war us says
Iran now Russia's top military backer
since the beginning of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine Iran has been able
to send according to Ukrainian
government sources about 2,400 drones to
Russia we are talking in this case about
kamakazi drone models shaheb 131 and 136
which greatly assist Russian efforts in
Ukraine particularly due to their value
for money it should be noted that while
each of these drones cost around $2,000
to produce shooting them down costs
Ukraine on average between 14 and
$15,000 for this reason both Iran and
Russia have committed to building a
drone Factory inside Russia okay okay
fine so Iran is being very helpful to
Russia but what does Tran get out of its
reproach with Moscow well I think that
we can say this move by the Iranian
regime is more of a long-term investment
in the Russian power yeah that's right
Iran is going to receive Advanced
Fighters helicopters and anti-aircraft
defense systems it is also interested in
learning how to circumvent Western
sanctions as Russia has done but above
all Iran is looking to Russia for
protection in international
organizations and more specifically
protection from the United States and
the the European
Union even so perhaps the greatest
concern of the US government given the
circumstances in the Middle East and
Israel is neither Iran's nuclear program
nor its friendship with Russia but the
Allies Iran has within the region you
see when Iran wants to attack a country
it does not do so directly but through
terrorist groups that it finances
heavily the best example of this is
Hezbollah Hezbollah which we have
already told you about on this channel
is a Lebanese terrorist group a
political party that emerged during the
country civil war between 1975 and 1990
and which receives both thousands of
missiles and hundreds of millions of
dollars every year from Iran Hezbollah
has become Iran's most important Ally in
the Middle East as it controls almost
every aspect of Lebanon a country
bordering Israel in fact this
organization has already had a lot of
run-ins with Israel in recent times
northern border heats up with fresh
rocket fire Hezbollah attacks on IDF
posts for the time being Hezbollah has
not dared to attack Israel on a large
scale nor to declare war on it however
the protagonist of the new conflict with
the Hebrew State Hamas also has strong
ties with Iran it is true that Iran is
not as close to Hamas as it is to
Hezbollah but even so their cooperation
dates back to the 1990s at which time
the Islamic Republic began funding the
Palestinian terrorist group with more
than 50 million annually and weapons
that it has been sending through
Hezbollah in 2012 Hamas began bombarding
Tel Aviv with Iranian longrange fager 5
missiles in fact given the circumstances
and as we have told you here on visual
politic many now believe that Iran was
behind the Hamas terrorist attack on
Israel on 7th of October but what if it
were confirmed that Iran was behind the
attack on Israel and more importantly
would the United States step up and
intervene militarily in Iran well let's
take a
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look Iran next us Target
we've already told you that there are
certain voices that are Whispering that
Iran was behind the attacks against
Israel at the beginning of October the
Israeli government also strongly
believes it and the truth is that
everything points to this being the case
even so in Washington they claim that
there is still no solid evidence to
confirm Iranian involvement in the Hamas
terrorist attack but whether Iran had
anything to do with it or not what it
has made clear is that should the
Israeli response against Hamas in Gaza
Contin you Iran would not hesitate to
intervene and start an open conflict
against Israel for many this would lead
to the US joining the conflict on
Israel's behalf directly but why how
important is Israel to the United States
well you see in addition to being one of
its best allies Israel has been of
crucial strategic importance to the
United States since 1967 in the Cold War
it served as a kind of dyke of
containment a forward base against
Soviet influence in the Middle East and
today to a certain extent it is a buffer
against Islamic radicalism and the
powers that seek to undermine Uncle
Sam's interests Israel shares its
experience intelligence information and
if necessary it has a whole Spartan
Force prepared for any contingency that
is why their economic military and
technological cooperation has been so
intense there is little doubt that if
Iran were to attack Israel the United
States would intervene in the conflict
of course in recent years when Israel
has clashed with Iran the response has
been directly Israeli and it has been
forc
Israel launches massive military strike
against Iranian Targets in Syria these
days however American concern about an
Iranian attack on Israel goes beyond a
possible missile strike now there is
another totally determining factor that
has the United States and the entire
Middle East on edge a possibly nuclear
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Iran you see while it is true that
experts indicate that Iran may already
have enough 90% enriched uranium in its
possession they claimed that it would
still take between 6 and 24 months to
develop a nuclear weapon but even if us
intelligence assures us that Iran did
not reopen its nuclear weapons
development program in 2022 the reality
is that we cannot be entirely sure
whether Iran already has a nuclear
weapon or not we must keep in mind that
since the United States withdrew from
The Joint comprehensive plan of action
in 2018 Iranian transparency on nuclear
matters has been almost nil and not only
that we must also remember that the
assembly of a nuclear weapon can be done
perfectly well underground thereby
rendering satellite analysis
useless obviously as you can imagine
Israel is particularly fearful of this
situation which could represent the main
existential threat to the country by far
in fact that's why prime minister
Netanyahu already stated this just a few
months ago how do you stop a rogue
Nation from acquiring nuclear weapons
you had one that is called Saddam
Hussein's Iraq it was stopped by
military force hours you had a the
second one that is called Syria that
tried to develop nuclear weapons and it
was stopped by a military action ours
this highly hostile scenario with the
possibility that a potentially nuclear
Iran could strike Israel is something
that has many people in Washington on
edge and the truth is that the Iranian
issue is getting red hot the seizure of
oil tankers it's support for Russia its
participation in the attack on Israel
and a possible nuclear bomb there are
more than enough reasons for things to
escalate indeed many analysts are
already considering the possibility of
us intervention if violence escalates in
the region but would its intervention in
Iran be successful for the time being
the Biden Administration has already
decided to prepare for a possible conf
us to send second aircraft carrier to
Eastern Mediterranean USS Eisenhower
will join the USS Ford off of Israel of
course in the event of wanting to attack
Iran the US would most likely need much
more than two aircraft carriers but
there is plenty of us equipment in the
region including a huge Air Base in
Qatar and we have to take into account
that Iran has the largest arsenals of
both longrange ballistic missiles and
drones in the Middle East its Armed
Forces is among the 20 most powerful in
the world supp passing even that of
Israel in some metrics even so the
United States is still by far the
world's leading military
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power if you are loyal followers of
visual politic you know that while not
at its best Uncle Sam's armed forces are
still practically unbeatable therefore
it is not crazy to think that it could
easily destroy key facilities such as
weapons and drone production facilities
or uranium enrichment facilities however
the us would have to be very careful
because there is a very high possibility
that the costs of its potential
intervention would far outweigh the
benefits and you may ask why you see if
the United States were to intervene both
Iran and its allies such as Hezbollah
would not hesitate to attack quick and
directly both the US bases in the region
and Israel but not only that there would
also be the risk that Iran would
completely close the straight of horuz
causing quite possibly another serious
energy and economic crisis
worldwide so there you have it visual
politic community relations between Iran
and the United States have been hostile
for more than 40 years and in recent
years they have been getting worse the
strengthening of the Iranian nuclear
program the support for Russia and
Ukraine and now the threat to attack
Israel have sunk the relationship
between the two to its depths analysts
are already raising the possibility of
the United States intervening in Iran if
necessary it has the military strength
and support of Israel in the Middle East
but to be honest it would not be a walk
in the park at the moment the conflict
between Israel and Hamas seems to be in
its early stages only time will tell if
Iran makes good on its threat and if
there is a response from the United
States in the meantime it is now your
turn would the United States succeed in
attacking Iran will Uncle Sam be able to
shower Israel with money as well as
Ukraine and could doing this also affect
the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine
you can leave me your answers in the
comments and as always don't forget that
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care see you
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soon
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