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moment on the 4th of April NATO
celebrated its 75th Anniversary 3/4 of a
century of an alliance that emerged From
the Ashes of the second world war and
that today three decades after the end
of the Cold War is once again a focus of
global attention Putin the recruiter of
the Year NATO Revival closely linked to
Ukraine war increased defense spending
by European countries the entry of
Sweden and Finland and greater
commitment to the eastern border are
just a few examples of the latest moves
Brewing within the alliance now wait a
minute because that doesn't mean that
NATO is free of problems or
ghosts in recent years the alliance
which totals 3.3 million troops and $1.3
trillion in annual budgets has had a few
thorns in its side check it out Hungary
is the last hold out for Sweden's NATO
membership tudin
for when I look at Turkey they now are
fighting against those who fight with us
who fought with us shoulder to shoulder
against Isis and sometimes they work
with ISIS process this is an issue and
this is a strategic issue but 23 of the
28 member nations are still not paying
what they should be paying and what they
are supposed to be paying for their
defense this is not fair to the people
and taxpayers of the United States
visual politic viewers the Atlantic
Alliance is also immersed in a huge and
complex sea of special interests which
often take precedence over its own
strategic and Military objectives and
while there has been much talk of
Hungarian leader orban's flirtations
with Putin and erdogan's blackmail what
really makes the hairs on the back of
NATO's neck stand up is the possibility
that the United States could end up
turning its back on them yes I know it
sounds crazy a completely ridiculous
possibility and it probably is but be
careful not to rule this possibility out
completely or we may be in for some
surprises because the point is that
without the United States NATO would
lose most of its military and Financial
Muscle in 2023 Uncle Sam's military
spending accounted for 68% of all
combined NATO military spending this is
10 times more than the spending of the
country with the second highest budget
Germany therefore talking about to Nato
without the United States would be like
talking about spaghetti bnes without
tomato sauce it would just make no sense
at all now why do we say that this
although improbable cannot be ruled out
100% well basically because of
this he Trump was just dead set against
having troops in South Korea again a
deterrent force or having troops in
Japan a deterrent Force he thought Putin
was an okay guy and Kim Jong-un was an
okay guy that we had pushed North Korea
into a corner to him him it was like we
were goating these guys if we didn't
have NATO then Putin wouldn't be doing
these
things honest to God it was frightening
because we didn't know what he Trump was
going to do up until the last minute and
I mean I think he all but said he was
going to get out of NATO and then pulled
back on it these are two of the people
who know Donald Trump best because they
worked with him in key positions and
were in constant contact with the former
president but it is not even necessary
to listen to statements from third party
to see Trump's lack of commitments to
his allies clearly we can hear it from
the man himself they asked me that
question one of the presidents of a big
countries stood up said well sir uh if
we don't pay and we're attacked by
Russia will you protect us I said you
didn't pay you're delinquent he said yes
let's say that happened no I would not
protect you in fact I would encourage
them to do whatever the hell they want
you got to pay you got to pay your bills
yes that European countries should do
much more in terms of defense is
something that has become a
long-standing demand from Washington and
yes it is true although the trend is
slowly changing the reality is that most
member countries fall short of the 2% of
GDP defense investment Target but then
to say that you would encourage Russia
to invade these underpaying countries
that's a very different
thing the point is that as I'm sure all
of you already know on the 5th of
November 2024 elections will be held in
the United United States and while Biden
will most likely remain in the White
House no scenario can be ruled out Trump
could return to the Oval Office so with
all this on the table the time has come
to ask ourselves a few questions however
farfetched they may seem to us what if
the United States were to leave NATO
would Europe be left unprotected and at
Putin's Mercy who would win and who
would lose in such a scenario well we're
going to take a look at this and more
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manscaped the sweet
nightmare for many a hypothetical us
exit from NATO would be the end of
security in Europe for others however it
would be an opportunity to create an
independent European defense strategy
and strengthen Europe's arms industry
but what is the real truth of both
positions well in order to answer this
question we first need to know exactly
what the United States contributes to
European Defense through NATO you see
defense systems and strategy are usually
multi-layered and have at least two
objectives deterrence and attack and
response capability well starting with
the former in the case of Europe the
greatest deterrent is provided by the
United States we are talking of course
about the famous nuclear
umbrella as you know the United States
has the second largest nuclear weapons
Arsenal in the World Behind Russia with
more than 5,000 nuclear warheads while
the other two European countries in the
alliance with nuclear weapons France and
United Kingdom account for just over 500
combined and okay many of you are
probably thinking well that's it 500
nuclear weapons in the hands of Europe
is more than enough for Russia or any
other country to never dare to attack so
there's no need for American radioactive
mushrooms well this is not really the
case you see the problem is that nuclear
weapons in France and the United Kingdom
are reserved by law for very specific
cases they can only be used against
another country if it is directly
attacking France or the United Kingdom
and there is no provision in fact it is
currently forbidden for them to be used
to defend Allied countries and that is
why the nuclear umbrella that the United
States brings to Nato is so important
why because the United States makes
available to Nato the use of its nuclear
weapons for European Defense if
necessary and this is an absolutely
distinguishing fact
Uncle Sam has between 100 and 150
upgraded b61 nuclear bombs distributed
in six European military bases in five
countries Belgium Germany Italy turkey
and the Netherlands in reality this
distribution is an allocation of bombs
to these countries which can make use of
them subject to us authorization in the
event of a large scale Conflict for
example Italy is allocated 35 turkey 20
and the Netherlands about 15 we are
talking about countries that are not
nuclear Powers but which in practice
obtain a similar status thanks to the
provision of US nuclear
bombs basically some European countries
that do not have their own nuclear
status acquire a layer of nuclear
defense in a certain way that gives them
a strategic security almost equivalent
to that of being a nuclear power in fact
following the Russian invasion against
Ukraine NATO has made efforts to improve
the capacity of these countries to be
able B to carry out nuclear strikes
armed with b612 nuclear bombs Dutch
f-35a Fighters get close to Nuke strike
mission for example in March 2024 the
F35 the US fifth generation fighter
became the first multi-roll stealth
fighter certified to use b61 nuclear
bombs and that's a big step for the
countries that have them but if the
United States were to pull out of NATO
or if Europe's defense strategy were to
stop relying on NATO and something like
a European Army were to be built s
countries that now have a quasi nuclear
status would lose that kind of deterrent
force and naturally who would benefit
from A reduced deterrent capability in
Europe exactly above all Russia so in
short a Europe without the US nuclear
umbrella provided in NATO would be a
much more exposed Europe militarily and
strategically and while it is true that
the nuclear umbrella could continue to
exist outside the NATO framework it
would most likely be much more
restrictive in terms of whether other
countries could benefit from such
protection now there would be more much
more at stake than nuclear
weapons the United States also provides
European countries via NATO with
enormous conventional military
capabilities and Equipment including
armored vehicles artillery air support
and deployment equipment although since
the invasion of Crimea NATO members
besides the United States have improved
their investment in equipment quite a
bit there is still a fairly significant
shortfall in maintenance and acquisition
of new equipment Spain will not send the
leopard tanks to Ukraine due to their
absolutely pitiable condition missing an
action 2third of Germany's top military
kit unusable French military lacks
ammunition for high-intensity conflict
to solve all this Europe would have to
increase its military spending
enormously and as you can imagine those
of you watching us from Europe this is
something that is not at all to the
liking of many Europeans especially
those from Western Europe but it's not
only that it would also be necessary to
increase Personnel in some armies in
order to counteract the hypothetical
American exit the United States alone
accounts for more than a third of all
military personnel in the alliance
something which in the event of a
conflict in Europe could become
absolutely
crucial but we are not finished yet
Uncle Sam also has the best intelligence
surveillance and reconnaissance
capabilities in NATO capabilities which
when it comes to the military field he
routinely puts at the service of the
Allied country we are talking not only
about a huge network of informants and
undercover agents but also about
Advanced satellites surveillance drones
and other reconnaissance Technologies
equipment that Europe alone either does
not have or does not have enough of or
does not have systems as advanced as the
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Americans clearly what Europe would lose
out or would have to try to develop on
its own covers a pretty substantial
field the United States is also key to
cyber defense operations that count
counter the hybrid Warfare threat from
the country's most active in cyber
attacks namely Russia and China without
the United States in NATO or with the
Americans less involved as mere external
allies Europe would be much more exposed
to such attacks by military
hackers and if we add to all this the
Diplomatic and strategic influence that
the United States has and that it also
indirectly contributes to Nat it is
clear that its exit could totally alter
Europe's influence think about it for a
moment if Russia for instance believes
that Europe is weaker because the United
States no longer has an obligation to
protect it then the Europeans would
start from a much weaker position in the
face of any political or economic
dispute just the opposite of what The
Advocates of the European Army believe
would happen if NATO is disbanded or
relegated to the background but what
about on the other side of the Atlantic
could Washington manage on its own is
the United States being in NATO only
benefiting Europe and not them as well
what exactly do the Americans gain from
this select club well let's find
out dependence or mutual
interest but I shall say it again and
again and again your boys are not going
to be sent into any Foreign
Wars the person you have just heard is
Franklin D Roosevelt the renowned
Democratic president of the United
States between 1933 and 19 1945 this
statement we have just heard came barely
a year before the country was forced to
enter fully under his mandate into the
second world war and visual politic
viewers isolationist speeches about
staying out of other people's Wars are
not something that Trump came up with 4
days ago they have existed in American
politics for centuries then of course
come the reality checks the question is
is it really not in the United States
interests to belong to Nato is it really
just doing the Europeans a favor by
giving them their protection well there
are no black and white answers here
instead there are many Grays in
between for example the only time in
NATO's 75e history that Collective
defense has been activated based on
Article 5 of the treaty was to defend
the United States after the 9/11
terrorist attacks several NATO member
countries along with external allies
declared war on terrorism a fight that
is still active today although less
intense than in those days and so with
the facts in hand the only time NATO
activated its main article was in
response to an attack that occurred in
the United States not in
Europe but that is perhaps only an
anecdote the truth is that the United
States also has other interests in
defending Europe that totally rule out
that it is something in which only the
Americans lose and only the Europeans
win in fact the majority of Americans
nearly half of those surveyed believe
their country should protect Europe and
although it is is a figure that is at
one of its lowest moments the still
broad support cannot be accidental you
see on the one hand a secure and stable
Europe directly benefits the United
States in several areas for example
about 20% of the exports of the US
economy go to Europe and this is not
exactly a small share but even that is
not the most important thing the US
military leadership position as the
strongest NATO country means that
Washington can directly collaborate in
strategic decision- making in Europe
decisions that can align with their
interests both in defense and in
political and Commercial matters do you
want an example well there is the Tiff
between Washington and Beijing or issues
such as terrorism and cyber security but
apart from the economic and diplomatic
issues the United States is also
interested in belonging to the alliance
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militarily to begin with their presence
in Europe gives them a much greater
control over Russia's movements and
that's not all many of Europe's arms
purchases go to the US arms industry and
why well we told you about that in a
recent video here on visual politic but
the fact that the NATO standards for
equipment are mostly based on American
requirements is no accident and surely
that explains in part why 63% of
everything Europe spends on armaments
since the invasion of Ukraine is going
precisely to the US arms industry in
other words even though European
countries spend far less on defense than
perhaps they should the Lion Share of
equipment spending goes to us industry
and that that's something that doesn't
get talked about much but also needs to
be taken into
account so you see a NATO without the
United States or a Europe defending
itself outside NATO would leave huge
security gaps and even if European
countries were to reach agreements with
the United States as they have with
other allies the coordination and
integration provided by NATO would be
impossible to achieve the United States
not only covers the shortcomings of
European armies it also provides its
nuclear umbrella which is the
Cornerstone of deterrence in Europe as
well as intelligence and influence on
the other hand Europe provides the
United States with a privileged
strategic position that favors its own
political and economic interests Europe
is the main customer of the US economy
and the one who buys the most American
weapons due to Nato standards what's
more the sum of the parts enables
Washington to multiply its Global
influence and let's not forget that the
current architecture of the
globalization process has favored above
all the Americans who have become much
much wealthier in other words that there
is a relationship ship of mutual
interest that while it may not be
symmetrical and play in Europe's favor
breaking it would also mean a huge loss
for Washington no one in their right
mind on either side of the Atlantic
would gamble on breaking up NATO
relegating its role or taking the United
States out of the alliance it would
basically be a mutual loss that would
only strengthen adversaries such as
Russia China or even other countries
such as Iran but now having said all
this it's your turn do you think Europe
should improve its defense through a
European army or by strengthening NATO
do you think that someday the United
States could leave the Atlantic Alliance
and if that were to happen what do you
think would happen without Washington's
defense of Europe well we're starting a
debate so leave us your comments below
and very important if you like this
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don't miss any news once again thank you
very much for being there all the best
and see you next time