It might feel like the world is ending right now, but we'll get through this. However,
that is not necessarily true of every scenario. What is the most likely way humanity will be wiped
out? Maybe it's something from space, or our planet, or us. Although the way the world ends
might be because of you, and if this is the case, you wouldn’t have any control over it.
We are going to start with world ending events from space, and then bring things closer to home.
An asteroid impact is one of Hollywood’s favorite ways to destroy the world.
But how likely is it that an asteroid will wipe out humanity?
Asteroid impacts are actually pretty common. According to NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory
an asteroid enters Earth’s atmosphere about once a year. Granted these asteroids are about the
size of a car, and burn up in the atmosphere, but this happens pretty often. That being said,
an asteroid that size would not wipe out life on the planet. But a bigger one most certainly would.
In 1908, which is not that long ago in the scheme of things, a 200-foot-wide piece of comet entered
the atmosphere and exploded over Siberia. The energy release was approximately 1,000 times
more than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. That is a lot of energy,
but not enough to wipe out humanity. It flattened vast amounts of forest
and killed wildlife in the area. But Earth and humans continued on as normal.
In order to wipe out most life on our planet an asteroid would need to be around 6 to 10
miles across. And the odds of an asteroid this size impacting the planet any time soon
is around 0.000001%. So, we don’t have to worry about extinction by asteroid quite yet.
However, an asteroid impacting the Earth that is big enough to destroy the city or
town you’re living in right now has about .1% chance of happening each year. So,
maybe you should still be a little worried about asteroids.
The next world ending event we wouldn’t see coming… literally.
It is estimated that there are around 10 million rogue black holes cruising around our galaxy.
The tricky part about finding black holes headed our way is that by definition you can’t see them.
Since nothing can escape a black hole, not even light, they are invisible,
but their effects on the things around them can be
observed. This is how astronomers proved black holes existed in the first place.
As a black hole approaches stars, planets, or anything else in space it drags that object
towards its massive gravity well. We can observe celestial objects being thrown off
their natural orbits by black holes. We can also see light bend around the gravity of black holes,
which allows astronomers to know that they’re there. This is called gravitational lensing.
However, if one of these interstellar monsters is lurking in the darkness
of space on a collision course with our solar system, we wouldn’t know until it was too late.
The first indication that a black hole was entering our solar system would occur when
the outer planets were pulled from their orbits. We would watch as Uranus and Neptune disappeared
into the maw of the black hole. The black hole wouldn’t even need to directly pass through Earth
to end the world. Just having one in our solar system would launch our planet off of its orbit
around the sun, and we would freeze to death while hurtling through the darkness of space.
Luckily, we don’t really need to worry about this occurring,
as scientists estimate that a rogue black hole destroying our planet is around 1 in a trillion.
Now let’s discuss some world ending events that are closer to home. One of the most
powerful natural phenomena on the planet are volcanoes. These exploding pieces of Earth’s
crust and mantle can cause such widespread damage that they can actually end the world.
For example, in 1783 the Laki Volcano located in Iceland erupted. The lava,
fumes, and ash wiped out around 9,000 people. The dust that was kicked up into
the atmosphere blocked out much of the sun’s light. This caused temperatures to fall by
almost 9 degrees in the northern hemisphere. And that was a relatively small volcano.
There have been 5 mass extinctions during the history of life on Earth. Six if you count the one
humans are causing right now. It is likely that volcanoes played a role in several of the previous
mass extinctions. And if the Earth unleashes its full potential like it has in the past,
humans, and pretty much all life on the planet, will become extinct. So, how likely is it that a
massive volcano will throw our planet into chaos? Unfortunately, scientists believe we are overdue
for such an event. The chances of a massive volcanic eruption occurring are pretty high.
There are approximately 40 supervolcanoes around the planet. At least one tends to
erupt every 50,000 years or so. We haven’t had a massive eruption in around 74,000 years,
so we are overdue. The likelihood of a supervolcanic eruption that could end the world,
or at least wipe out the human species from the planet at some point in the future,
is 100% going to happen. That is if something else doesn’t destroy us first.
We are probably much more likely to wipe ourselves out than something from the planet or space.
However, this next end of world scenario may be Earth’s way of
trying to get rid of us because of the damage we are causing to the planet.
It is undeniable that humans are contributing to climate
change by burning fossil fuels and depleting the Earth’s resources. So,
how likely is it that the damage we are doing will be the thing that ends the world?
If you ask scientists, some believe that it is a very real possibility that climate change is
what will wipe out humanity. For example, one climate scientist named James Hansen says:
“If we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal,
there’s a substantial chance that we will initiate the runaway greenhouse.
If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty.”
What he is referring to is that if humans continue doing business as usual,
and burn all of the fossil fuels on the planet, that Earth’s temperature will increase so much
that there would be a runaway greenhouse effect. This is because the amount of carbon dioxide
and pollution we are putting into the atmosphere will continue to trap heat, causing our planet’s
temperature to increase more and more. At some point there will be so much pollution in the
atmosphere that Earth won’t be able to cool itself down, and the temperature will just keep going up.
In this end of world scenario humans have a choice. If we choose to do nothing,
and just keep burning fossil fuels, there is a 100% chance the world as
we know it will end. However, there is something even more terrifying.
There are some scientists that think we have already passed the point of no return, and death
by climate change is inevitable. Regardless, Earth will bounce back once it gets rid of its
pesky human problem, but almost everything alive today will not be around to see it.
A more immediate threat that humans pose to the planet, and ourselves, is destruction by nuclear
war. It is estimated that within the next 100 years there is a 1% chance humanity ends the world
in a nuclear holocaust. That is a really grim thought. This could happen accidentally through
a malfunction in a missile silo’s computer system, or intentionally by one government or another.
Basically the world is being held hostage by humanity's desire to stockpile nuclear weapons
and blow one another up. There are approximately 3,750 active nuclear warheads as of right now.
Some scientists estimate it would take about 100 nukes to end the world from
the fallout and nuclear winter that would follow. So, this means that humans have a
1% chance of ending the world 37 times over in the next century.
Humans also hold the key to another end of world scenario. What about death by
Terminators? Or to take it out of the realm of sci-fi, death by artificial intelligence.
We have created very basic artificial intelligence at this point, and there
is no possible way that our Alexa’s or iPhone’s will be taking over the world just yet. Although,
some of us may feel like they already have. But researchers from Oxford and Yale say that there
is a 50% chance that AI will start outperforming humans in everything we do in the next 45 years.
This doesn’t necessarily mean that they will take over the world quite yet though.
However, those same researchers predict that in about 120 years every single human job
will be able to be done by machines and computers with artificial intelligence.
At that point there would be no further use for humans, and the AI takeover would commence.
So, humans have roughly around 120 years before the machines take over.
Let’s take a step away from how humans could cause the end of the world,
and look at something we have no control over. Aliens.
What are the chances that the world ends by alien invasion? Well first let’s talk about
the likelihood that aliens exist. Using complex statistical equations such as Drake Equation
and Bayesian analysis, some scientists believe the chance of intelligent alien life in our galaxy is
close to 45%. Most scientists believe that life of some kind in our galaxy is almost a certainty,
but alien microbes probably won’t be invading our planet any time soon.
However, many scientists, including the late Stephen Hawking, think that if aliens did come
to Earth, it would be almost inevitable they would try to conquer the planet and wipe out humanity.
Like when Europeans came to the Americas some scientists suggest aliens might come to Earth
for resources and to take what they want while subjugating humans. Or perhaps also
like the European conquerors, they would bring an alien disease with them that would
decimate our species. So, if aliens do exist it is probably better that they don’t find our planet,
because it is more likely than not first contact will be a world ending event.
Should you be worried bout a hostile alien takeover though?
No. The only natural resource on this planet that is not in embarrassing abundance all over
the universe is… well, us. Everything else an alien may want to take our planet over
for- including habitable territory- is in extreme abundance all over the universe, or
easily created through some long-term geo engineering. And who would want humans as
slaves anyways? We’re rebellious and grossly inefficient- an advanced alien species would
be better off with cheap, efficient, and durable robots to do all their slave labor.
But alien diseases are something you should definitely be concerned about,
because while aliens may not want to purposefully invade our world and take our resources,
they might accidentally wipe us out with a sneeze.
A final way the world might end may be the most
surprising of all. Maybe you will cause the world to end.
What if the world we live in is just a dream or simulation? If you were the one in control,
even if you didn’t know it, at some point you would be pulled out of the simulation,
thus ending it. Whether it is a dream, or some advanced computer game you are playing right now,
when it ends you would be what causes the end of this world.
The scariest thing is that scientists say there is about a 50/50 chance that we all live in some
sort of simulation. So, there is a 50% chance you are going to be responsible for ending the world.
Please do us all a favor and continue dreaming or playing the game of life, because when you
wake up or unplug, there is a 50% chance the rest of us will be blinked out of existence.
Now watch “Scary Experiments That Could Have Ended the World.” Or
check out “Why You Wouldn't Survive World War 3.”