I think you will all agree with me that
these last few years have been a huge
mess a pandemic an inflation crisis
another energy crisis a bunch of Wars
there's practically no place in the
world where madness has not re its head
however some places have been and are
being particularly hard hit by this
intense Trend this is specifically the
case for the Red Sea and its
geographical environment here on visual
politic we have already told you about
the conflict between Israel and Hamas as
well as the new threat of the hoodies to
global trade however that's not the end
of it now analysts are pointing to
another potential conflict also around
the Red Sea in this case I'm talking
about a possible conflict in The Horn of
Africa for those of you who do not
remember the Horn of Africa is one of
the most convulsive places on the planet
here we find countries as shambolic as
Sudan Somalia and itria and you may be
wondering why might a new conflict break
out here well take a look at this news
item Ethiopia and Somali land reach
agreement over access to Ports Naval and
Commercial access to Somali land's Coast
granted an exchange for recognizing
Republic's Independence and you will say
Somali land but wasn't the country
called Somalia well this visual politic
Community is where the problems begin
somal land is a region internationally
recognized as part of the state of
Somalia however it declared its
independence unilaterally more than 30
years ago so you can imagine the tension
generated by Ethiopia negotiating with a
separatist region and not with the
Somali state in practice it means the
recognition of its independence and what
is even worse for Somalia Somali land is
becoming an important state in the
region tensions are running high and
many fear that another conflict will
break out in the Red Sea so here on
visual politic we have asked ourselves a
few questions why has Ethiopia moved
closer to Somali land could this move
really start a new war conflict today
we're going to answer all these
questions
but to do so we have to First Take a
look back in time let's
rewind the scars of
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colonialism normally when we study
conflicts on the African continent we
have no choice but to take a look at its
history many of them have their Roots
intentions between various ethnic groups
Clans or families that as a result of
European colonialism were forced to
coexist this was clearly the case in in
Somalia founded in 1960 the Republic of
Somalia emerged from the merger of the
British colony of somal land and Italian
Somalia however with a political
scenario dominated by alliances between
dozens of Clans hundreds of sub Clans
and thousands of families the new Somali
Republic faced the difficult task of
establishing solid and efficient public
institutions in fact it was not until
1969 with the death of President Ali
shamak that Somalia began to gain
stability but taking advantage of his
death General Muhammad Sayad barah
staged audar and seized power Sayad
barah a traditional Ally of the
Communist block during the Cold War went
down in history for leading military
campaigns against Ethiopia over the ogan
Border region in fact in 1977 it became
Somali territory after the dictator
supported Somali Guerilla groups such as
the ogan National Liberation Front
however Ethiopia eventually recaptured
the territory a year later with the help
of the Soviet Union and Cuba at which
point bar began to move closer to the
United States and visual politic viewers
from that moment on everything went
downhill after 10 years of fighting
against Ethiopia in 1988 sad bar signed
an agreement with the Ethiopian
government to stop supporting the Somali
gorillas of the ogaden and do you know
what ended up happening exactly the
gorillas rebelled civil war broke out in
Somalia Sayad bar was deposed in 1991
and the country descended into chaos
even the numerous International
interventions failed to stabilize the
situation it was just at this time that
a Guerilla group the Somali national
movement declared Somali land's
independence from the British colonial
era borders Somali land despite being
riddled with Clans managed to do what
Somalia has never been able to do
achieve internal peace in fact they soon
began to develop documents for the
foundation of stable institutions in
1991 they took a crucial step by
publishing the national transitional
Charter and in 2001 they Consolidated
their political framework by approving
through a fair referendum their
constitution in this way elections began
to be held in a fair manner at the
beginning of this Century what's more
this territory also issued its own
currency and internal security became
one of its strengths in a particularly
turbulent region compared to its
neighbors Somali land became a true
Oasis of stability however despite the
efforts of this territory to become the
end of its neighbors for being much more
stable it has one problem well you could
say more of a frustration than a problem
no country has recognized it as an
independent state but now everything
could change thanks to its agreement
with Ethiopia check it
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out Ethiopia and the
Sea on the 1st of January 2024 the Horn
of Africa woke up to startling news
Ethiopia had signed an agreement with
Somali land it was undoubtedly an
unexpected but also a very logical move
on the part of the Ethiopian government
you see Ethiopia lost its direct access
to the Red Sea in 1993 after itria
became independent on top of that with
the war they fought between 1998 and
2000 Ethiopia was left definitively
landlocked as relations between the two
countries were absolutely destroyed and
although things have improved no one
wants to trust their future to what is
known as the African North Korea the
fact is that Ethiopia aware that 95% of
its imports and exports were done by sea
reached an agreement with neighboring
Djibouti to create a corridor that would
give it Maritime access for the modest
price of $1.5 billion annually however
in October 2023 Ethiopia was met with
the following News jibuti latest
donation to reject Ethiopia's Red Sea
access plea following the announcement
of this news came the moment that the
neighbors in the Horn of Africa feared
the Ethiopian Prime Minister ABI Amed
Ali declared that an outlet to the Sea
belonged to Ethiopia and that if an
agreement was not reached he would be
ready to take it by force as you can
imagine alarm Bells went off
particularly in itria in fact ABI Ahmed
has been positioning troops on the
border with arria in recent months 100 m
or 160 km from Asmara the arrian capital
and 45 Mi or 72 km from Port assap the
main Eritrean Port however perhaps being
aware that entering into a war with
another country could give Wings to
separatist movements in regions such as
Amara or Oria ABI Ahmed decided to look
for another alternative to gain his
longed for access to the sea that
alternative as you already know has been
to approach Somali
land and while Ethiopia had already
approached this territory in 1994 to
sign agreements on trade diplomatic and
security matters the agreement they
signed on the first day of 2024 has
taken a Step Beyond on what they had
agreed so far the agreement not only
provides for Ethiopia's access to Somali
land's main Port the part of berbera but
would also allow it to install its Naval
forces on the coast of this territory in
return this self-proclaimed Republic
would receive a significant stake in one
of Ethiopia's most lucrative
Enterprises Ethiopia offers Airline
stake to Somali land for sea access but
undoubtedly Somali land's greatest
success with this agreement would be the
recognition of its status as a fully
independent country somal land argues
that the agreement implies an implicit
recognition by Ethiopia while Ethiopian
authorities clarify that the agreement
only stipulates the in-depth study of
Somali land's recognition not a direct
recognition be that as it may this
agreement has angered one country in
particular
Somalia it should not be forgotten that
Somalia still considers Somali land as
part of its own territory that is why
following the signing of the agreement
the Somali government denounced it
considering it an attack on its
territorial Integrity since then
tensions have reached such a level that
the Somali government has already
appealed to the population to prepare
for a possible War we are ready for a
war Somalia threatens conflict with
Ethiopia over Breakaway region in fact
shortly after the announcement of the
agreement Somali officials met with
arrian officials to discuss possible
military cooperation so while Ethiopia
may have been able to avoid a direct
confrontation with itria it may now come
to blows with Somalia of course should
War eventually break out between the two
countries it is quite possible that the
Red Sea region would ultimately collapse
but we cannot forget that the major
Powers have many interests in this area
so it is important to ask is a conflict
between Somalia and Ethiopia really
likely well let's take a
look the Red Sea too big to
fall in recent months we have witnessed
what is happening in the Red Sea a sea
that like its name indicates is red hot
on the one hand we must remember that
Israel continues its counter offensive
in the Gaza Strip to wipe out the
Palestinian terrorist group Hamas which
massacred 1,400 people on Israeli soil
on the 7th of October last year since
then more than 20,000 people have lost
their lives and unfortunately while the
Israeli Army does seem to be slowly
dismantling Hamas in the strip the end
of the conflict is not yet in sight on
the other hand in mid January this year
we came across another shocking piece of
news us and UK launch massive bomb
strikes on hotties and retaliation for
Red Sea attacks after the hoodies began
intensifying their attacks on Merchant
ships in the bab El mandb Strait and
throughout the Red Sea the US and UK
conducted a series of bombing raids to
deter the hoodies from continuing their
activities therefore it is not risky to
say that the international powers are
now particularly attentive to everything
that is happening around this small sea
now the possibility of a new conflict in
The Horn of Africa has once again put
the whole world on alert it should not
be forgotten that 10% of all the World
Trade passes through the Red Sea and
should a War break out between Somalia
and Ethiopia over the Somali land
agreement this could be the final
straw in fact already with the increase
in who the attacks cargo container
prices have skyrocketed which of course
is driving up prices throughout the
supply chain for this reason almost
every state in the world has taken a
stand against Ethiopia's move towards
Somali Land from the United States to
China Egypt and turkey including the
African Union and the European Union and
it makes sense all of them have been
investing heavily in the area to achieve
a specific goal free commercial transit
for years the regional Powers have
wanted to ensure their presence in the
Red Sea the main artery of global trade
for example turkey and Qatar managed to
reach an agreement with Sudan to restore
suakin Island and its port in the Red
Sea in exchange for controlling part of
the Red Sea and establishing themselves
there the United Arab Emirates for its
part certainly enjoys the best position
since although it withdrew its troops
from Yemen in 2018 it still has stakes
in numerous ports in the country such as
Aden Hoda Hoda sakra Island and perim
the emiratis undoubtedly have the best
asset in the bab El mandb
Strait for their part neither the United
States nor China have been left behind
in the Red Sea geopolitical game in fact
both have military bases in the small
country of jouti in the Horn of Africa
from there the United States enjoys a
privileged position to secure the
transit of its Merchant ships against
attacks such as those of the hoodies or
Pirates and to oversee the Africa
command but on top of that the United
States has also been investing a large
amounts of resources especially in the
African Union Mission in Somalia to
fight terrorism by al-qaeda's Ally Al
shabab and to rebuild public
institutions no wonder then that Uncle
Sam has positioned himself against
Ethiopia in the face of the possibility
of a conflict that would derail all its
efforts in the case of china although it
also maintains its military presence in
the Red Sea to fight terrorism and
piracy the main reason for its presence
is commercial don't forget that 40% of
its trade with the European Union its
largest trading partner by far passes
through the Red Sea and not only that
this commercial arter is also crucial to
its new Silk Road strategy so it needs
maximum stability there to be able to
execute its plans it is therefore not
surprising that it has also opposed the
Ethiopian movement which it considers
potentially conflictive and contrary to
its
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interests so you see the agreement
between Ethiopia and Somali land may be
the beginning of a new conflict in the
vicinity of the already troubled Red Sea
the International Community seems to
have rallied against this aware that one
more conflict in the region may end
trade stability worldwide for the moment
Ethiopia seems to be going ahead and is
doing so with the support of the United
Arab Emirates but in view of all of the
commotion created it remains to be seen
whether it will have to recalibrate its
options but at this point the questions
now are for you do you think Ethiopia
will eventually give in to International
pressure should the world start
recognizing Somali land as an
independent state you could leave me
your answers in the comments and as
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best see you
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soon