want to become the new Libya. In fact, it is not uncommon for
him to hold up the latter country as an example of the mistake that abandoning
the nuclear program can entail. Libya did so in 2003 and by 2011 Gaddafi was dead. Naturally, Kim
Jong-un does not want to suffer the same fate. And the truth is that this approach is entirely
logical. If you are an unscrupulous dictator and you don't give a damn about people's lives, then
nuclear weapons are your best life insurance. In Pyongyang's offices, behind closed doors,
it is very clear to them that their rudimentary combat forces compete in different galaxies from
those of South Korea, let alone the United States. The technological evolution of recent
decades has left them completely out of the game. Precisely for this reason, for more than 20 years
North Korea's defense plans have only taken into account one premise: to increase the cost of a
foreign military intervention in the country. In other words, it is not a matter of being
able to repel an attack, but of the cost being so high that no one is willing to pay that price.
It is the policy of deterrence taken to its highest level. And that is exactly
where nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles fit in. And the further those weapons can go,
the greater their deterrent capability and therefore their life insurance.
It would be something similar to a rabid dog strategy.
To put it simply: don't come closer, I will bite. [Yes, in a way, I think that would be
a good way to sum up Pyongyang's perverse game]. But, okay, this is all quite logical and nothing
new. But the question I'm sure many of you are asking now is ..... But let's see, [host],
North Korea is a very poor and technologically a very backward country, how on earth is it possible
that it has managed to develop such advanced nuclear weapons and missiles? Flying 4,600 km
and reaching Mach17 is not exactly child’s play. Well, the fact is that yes, North Korea is a
very poor country, but it is also a country with a single obsession:
So it is estimated that the government allocates between 20% and 30% of all national resources
to the military every year, and it is the only country in the world in that range.
In other words, North Korean production basically feeds two things: subsistence and military.
According to South Korean estimates, we are talking about an annual investment in its armed
forces of between 7 and 11 billion dollars. But of course, there are several things to
take into account here: Spending on salaries is
miniscule. To give you an idea, the four-star generals receive somewhere
around a little more than $1,000 a month from the government, corrupt practices aside.
And if we’re talking about the professional troops, it is believed that salaries range
between $10 and $40 dollars a month. And those in compulsory military service do
not even reach that. So unlike other armies, let's just say that manpower
is a much smaller consumption of resources. This allows them to free up a large part of
their available resources for their two absolute priority objectives:
border defenses and strategic armaments. That is, nuclear bombs and ballistic missiles.
In North Korea you are not going to see modern combat weaponry, advanced artillery,
hi-tech tanks or a large combat air fleet. They have understood perfectly well that in
all those fields they cannot compete. On the other hand, surprising as it may
seem to you, the truth is that it is incredibly cheap to develop nuclear weapons. The reason more
countries do not have this weaponry is largely because of the commitment to non-proliferation,
and not due to cost or technology. Let me explain: according to South Korean
government estimates made in 2016, the North Korean nuclear weapons program may have cost
between $1.1 billion and $3.2 billion. And yes, that figure may have increased
somewhat by 2022, but roughly speaking it's not going to amount to much more than that.
So even a country as poor as North Korea can afford it.
But beyond the economic issues.... Let's move on to what you probably most want to know about:
What on earth is it like and what does the North Korean ballistic program entail?
Well, let's take a look. T2(ONE ALL-RISK POLICY)
The facts speak for themselves: since it launched its ballistic technology development program back
in the late 1980s and early 1990s, North Korea has made significant progress.
And, not surprisingly, it has based its first missiles on Soviet technology.
The vast majority of North Korean short-range missiles are improved developments of those known
in NATO nomenclature as SCUDs. Along these lines, the first North Korean missile was
developed from the Soviet R-17 Elbrus or SCUD-B. So both the liquid propellant engines and the
guidance system of short-range missiles are derived from Russian technology. This is,
for example, the case with the Hwasong 5, 6 and 7 missiles, some of which have
even been exported to countries such as Iran. The problem is that SCUD missile technology has
limitations. So if the North Koreans wanted more powerful missiles with longer range,
they needed more efficient and rugged engines capable of functioning at extreme
altitudes and freezing temperatures. Therefore, in 1999 the communist
country officially established the so-called Strategic Forces of the Korean People's Army,
and since then the ballistic program has taken a 180-degree turn.
Since the late 1990s and early 2000s, Pyongyang has devoted all its efforts to creating a new
family of missiles with indigenous technology, with more efficient engines and greater thrust.
A new family that has resulted in a catalog with five types of missiles,
one for each occasion: submarine-launched, short-range, medium-range, intermediate-range
and the dreaded intercontinental missiles. In theory, this program has put the communist
country on a par with the major military powers in terms of ballistic capabilities and strategic
weapons eventually capable of delivering nuclear warheads thousands of miles away.
And along with missiles, North Korea is known so far to have succeeded in building nuclear weapons
of between 15 and 20 kilotons, similar to those that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.
In the nuclear weapons industry this is equivalent to something like a 1950’s car. But, remember,
we are talking about nuclear weapons. As long as they go, they can do more than enough damage.
One thing the North Koreans are still believed not to have achieved is to miniaturize these
weapons in order to be able to deliver them with the missiles we have discussed. Because
basically the nuclear program and the ballistic program are one and the same.
Having said that, the next step is to know exactly how this program is structured.
Well, the fact is that this new strategic force is classified, distributed and
organized according to the objective. In this way, leaving aside the SCUD
type missiles and focusing only on the most modern and indigenous technology missiles,
we could make the following classification: On the one hand, North Korea has a new missile
capable of attacking with relative precision any point in South Korea.
We are talking about the KN-23 missile. The KN-23 is a solid-fuel missile that
has been tested several times since 2019. It can be launched from trains,
trucks or, even, submarines. And together with these missiles
you see on the screen (Pukguksong 1 and 2), this would be the third type of missile that
North Korea could launch from a submarine. It has a proven range of 430 kilometers or 267
miles and it is believed that launched with a depressed trajectory, that is,
with a flatter launch, less payload and lower altitude, it could evade many of the anti-missile
defense systems such as the American THAAD. Surprising, isn't it? Well, that's just the
beginning. The next two steps in range, the medium and intermediate range missiles,
are where North Korea has put special efforts over the last decade.
Why? Well... It’s simple: because medium- and intermediate-range missiles are the
missiles that allow Pyongyang to keep within range of Japan and Guam, two places where
the United States has permanently stationed some of its most advanced strategic weapons.
And believe me when I say that from a strategic point of view, Pyongyang’s
deterrent power of having missiles capable of reaching these places is more than remarkable.
We are talking about missiles such as the Musudan and the Hwasong-12, which are estimated to have
a range of up to 4,000 and 4,500 kilometers respectively. To put this in perspective, the
island of Guam is less than 3,500 kilometers away from the communist country as the crow flies.
In both cases, these missiles are prepared to carry nuclear warheads,
and if North Korea succeeds in miniaturizing its nuclear weapons to the point of being
able to deliver them on such missiles, this would mean that a North Korean nuclear strike
against US bases would be a real possibility. However, although these missiles are two of the
means of attack that most concern the United States because of the targets they could reach,
the truth is that if we read the Western press we will quickly see that the ones that are really
concerning are another group entirely: of course, I am referring to intercontinental missiles.
These missiles are the ones that could take this whole issue to the next level. Evidently
because we are talking about missiles with nuclear payloads that could reach both
Europe and the continental United States itself. We are especially talking about two key missiles,
the Hwasong-14 and the Hwasong-15. And, take note, because South Korean intelligence considers the
former to be fully operational, that is, ready for use. It is a two-stage missile that promises
strike ranges of up to 10,400 kilometers, enough to hit the west coast of the United States.
On the other hand, the Hwasong-15 is a kind of evolution of the previous model that is still
under development and has been tested only once. So it is suspected that we could see ballistic
tests of this missile in the near future. The communist regime wants this missile,
also two-stage, to be able to strike almost anywhere in the world with a range of up to
13,000 kilometers, that’s over 8,000 miles. But not only that. Other missiles like the
new Hwasong-17 also promise to be one of the key pieces of the ballistic missile program in
the future, however this one is still in a fairly early stage of its development.
Now, by now you may be wondering... But let's see, [host], how on earth can the North Koreans
test the range of these intercontinental missiles when the country is so small?
Well, actually, that's a good question, because North Korea has an exclusive economic zone that
extends at most up to some 1,000 km, or 620 miles from its farthest coast.
But, of course, we are talking about North Korea. It's not as if they're too concerned
about the minutiae of what some people call international law. The fact that
the missiles fall within Japan's exclusive economic zone is something that Pyongyang
doesn't really care about. So... Problem solved.
In any case, in order not to provoke more outrage than necessary, what they usually
do is to test the missiles upside down. Wait, wait... What do you mean, upside down? Yes,
you heard it right: upside down! What they do is launch the missiles
high instead of long, and then with complex calculations they obtain what the range of the
missile would have been had it been launched on a normal ballistic trajectory of attack.
Take a look at this infographic. (IMAGE)
What you see is the trajectory of missiles in three ballistic
tests conducted in July and November 2017, the latter corresponding to the Hwasong-15 missile.
As you can see, what the North Koreans do is launch intercontinental missiles to extremely
high altitudes of up to 4,500 kilometers high, that’s 2,765 miles (((emphasis added))).
Yes, they launch the missiles into the exosphere and after re-entering
the dense atmosphere they fall into the sea. So this is not a bluff. North Korea has proven
missiles capable of reaching US territory, and that is of particular concern if, in the end,
as we have already told you, the North Koreans manage to miniaturize and mount
nuclear warheads on these missiles. So then the question becomes: how on
earth can this situation be avoided, could the North Korean nuclear and
ballistic program be stopped at this point? Well... that is something we will talk about
in a future video here on VisualPolitik. The questions for now are over to you: What
actions would you take to avert this danger? How do you think the North Korean problem should be
handled? More importantly, do you really believe that all this offensive power poses a real risk?
Leave us your comments below and let's open debate. And now if you found this
video interesting, please like and subscribe to VisualPolitik if you haven't already done so.
As always, thank you very much for watching. All the best and see you next time.