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the war in Ukraine is in its third year
how far distant 24th of February 2022
already seems on that day something
happened that was not foreseen that day
will not only go down in history for the
Russian invasion but it also marked the
beginning of a new era a new era that
many are already calling the second Cold
War suddenly War the arms race mistrust
and fear of dictatorships were back on
the political agenda in the west
Russia's failure to quickly seize
control of Ukraine gave way to a war of
artillery trenches and attrition the
likes of which had not been seen for
decades first the Russian offensive then
the Ukrainian counter offensive of 2022
and 23 now the stalemate the beginning
of 2024 has been far from easy for
Ukrainian troops Ukraine faces Gap in
the hose as Western ammunition dries up
us estimat Ukraine military shortages
could grow catastrophic by late March
concern and skepticism have grown in
equal parts in both the United States
and Europe and that has brought up one
question in particular should Aid keep
flowing to Ukraine interestingly in
Europe the answer seems quite clear the
political consensus says yes even France
has hinted that it would be ready to
deploy troops in Ukraine itself we've
talked about that recently here on
visual politic in the United States
however things are very different of
course Joe Biden's Administration argues
for supporting Ukraine tooth and nail
nevertheless Congress has held up the
$60 billion Aid package pushed by the
White House for months now that Aid
appears to be close to passing but even
so it is clear that consensus is
underwhelming trumpism aside it is of
great concern that Ukraine is diverting
attention from a much more serious
threat to put it bluntly could Aid to
Ukraine pose a threat to Taiwan why do
so many Republicans not want to keep Aid
flowing to a country that is standing up
to and dra one of the greatest threats
to the United States and global
stability Vladimir Putin's Russia well
that's exactly what we're going to take
a look at right now step on the
accelerator and let's get
started Ukraine a student that fell
behind more could have been done but
even so the West has stepped up for
Ukraine at least it has done more than
many of us expected if I'm completely
honest with you the United States alone
has put more than $75 billion on the
table in other words if finally approved
with the new Aid package assistance to
Ukraine from the us alone will exceed
$130 billion of course most us
assistance has been directed at
providing Ukraine with ammunition weapon
systems intelligence and training for
troops that have to directly confront
Russia in Europe both the European
Union's Community institutions and the
various governments have so far
delivered or committed more than $150
billion if we also take into account
countries such as Canada and Japan or
the new commitments being announced in
recent weeks the Allied effort will soon
total well over $300 billion thanks to
all this support Ukraine has been able
to achieve three things first to
maintain resistance to Russia second to
keep the country's institutions on their
feet and third to ensure that its
economic activity and above all its
industrial military production capacity
recovers even so it's not all good news
there is something that went wrong of
course I'm talking about the counter
offensive in the summer of 2023
the Ukrainian troops were confronted by
a Russian military that had prepared
particularly well for the moment
anti-tank trenches and minefields dragon
teeth trenches with hidden explosives
the Russians have built defensive so
extremely extensive that they are
reminiscent of the World War II era and
because of this along with other
problems such as delays in the delivery
of equipment Ukraine was able to make
very little progress on all fronts at
very high human costs in the end the
advance stalled and neither side managed
to Prevail and so began a stage
determined entirely by
attrition many have blamed the failure
of the Ukrainian counter offensive on
the fact that the United States will not
send for example either f-16s nor more
longrange missiles others have blamed it
on the poor training of many of the
Ukrainian soldiers after all as we
already told you here on visual politic
many of them barely had 5 weeks of
training as a comparison British troops
in World War II received on average 22
weeks of training
be there as it may the reality is that
the Ukrainian counter offensive was a
failure and that caused skepticism in
Washington to Skyrocket the result by
December us funds to support Ukraine had
all but dried up you know Everyone likes
to back a winning horse but when things
don't work out then that's where the
cracks always start for example we are
now beginning to find many politicians
who believe that Washington's priority
should not be Ukraine or Russia but the
main and real rival of the United States
World dominance I don't need to tell you
that they are referring to the People's
Republic of China and particularly to
the growing conflict over the control of
Taiwan but what does Ukraine have to do
with Taiwan why are there pundits policy
makers and analysts not so many but they
are out there who say that the Ukraine
Endeavor may be a shot in the foot for
genuine us interests that is the
question well I guess we have to answer
it let's get on with
it the Taiwanese priority
it's no secret that China especially
since Xi Jinping has been at the Helm of
the country is increasingly obsessed
with extending its level of control over
the entire region China wants to be the
dominant great power in the asia-pacific
region here on visual politic we have
already talked at length about how the
Asian giant has been spreading its
tentacles but not surprisingly above all
its greatest obsession is Taiwan
harassment of the small Asian island has
been growing over time fighter jets
bombers drones and warships constantly
trespass both airspace and Waters under
Taiwanese control even the earthquake
has not stopped China's attempt at
intimidation quite the contrary don't
believe me or think I'm just
exaggerating well take a look Taiwan
defense Ministry detects 30 Chinese
military aircraft and nine Navy vessels
around island nation hours before
earthquake visual politic Community the
threat is reaching such a level that
Taiwan has begun to get serious after
years of appeasement they are now
ramping up their military spending to
try to deter an invasion that according
to us intelligence could be in the works
for 2027 and that is exactly what this
news item explains Taiwan a lots record
defense budget for 2024 to meet China
threat Taiwan is already spending almost
3% of GDP on defense this is not a crazy
figure but it is a huge reversal from
its policy of the past decades in fact
in 2018 military expenditure touched a
low of 1.7% in other words in just 6
years the Island's military expenditure
will have increased by more than 50% it
is clear that it is still not enough we
will talk about that at length in a
future video but for now the point is
that it marks a clear change in
Trend and not only that in recent years
there have also been an increase in the
length of the military draft and an
attempt to boost the local military
industry as well as buying and seeking
more intensive support from the United
States in other words little by little
the Taiwanese are beginning to have a
clear plan to defend themselves against
a possible Invasion something that for a
long time seemed a completely
far-fetched scenario but which is now
beginning to cause serious concern on
the island on top of all this there is
increasingly active us support for
example in July 2023 Biden announced
$345 million in military aid for the
island the amount is not large but it
marked the first time that the United
States decided to send weapons from its
own Arsenal as it is doing with Ukraine
on top of that by the end of 2023 Biden
signed the national defense
authorization act which authorizes the
start of training for the Taiwanese
military what's more Taiwan has been
specifically included in the aid package
that Biden pushed for Ukraine and Israel
however all in all it is clear that the
island remains at a serious disadvantage
in regards to China in all aspects
whether in budget number of soldiers
aircraft or warships Taiwan is
outnumbered by far precisely for this
reason the United States is very
concerned about this situation
especially after the DPP taiwan's most
nationalist party won the elections
again in fact just two weeks after these
elections Beijing sent dozens of ships
and military aircraft to Taiwan visual
politic viewers this is why many in
Washington are calling for more
ambitious support for Taiwan rather than
continued funding for Ukraine but why is
this island of such interest in
Washington well you see on the one hand
a free Taiwan strengthens Japan's
security and denies China of the option
of directly attacking American Allies
allies in the Western Pacific on the
other and as many of you will surely
remember Taiwan is the world epicenter
of advanced semiconductor production
chips that are crucial to the
functioning of the technology industry
if Taiwan were to fall into Chinese
hands the Asian giant would have a
powerful bargaining chip it would be
almost ruthless and would put in check
the entire supply chain on which the
world's technology industry currently
depends without taiwan's chips
artificial intelligence Robotics and
nanotechnology would be delayed for
years in the west and naturally if
Beijing were to take over Taiwan that
would be a huge coup under its belt it
would make it clear that it is capable
of imposing its Authority but let me say
it again what on Earth does all this
have to do with Ukraine well the problem
is that according to many the United
States is not prepared to deal with
these two scenarios at the same
time we are talking about totally
different War or conflict scenarios the
air and Maritime Armament that Taiwan
would need to defend itself is different
from what is needed in Ukraine however
it is no less true that in the event of
Chinese troops landing on the island the
Taiwanese army would urgently need a CMS
Javelin Patriot or stingers
anti-aircraft missiles among many other
pieces of equipment in order to put up
any resistance this has meant that in
some cases Aid to Ukraine has delayed
the delivery of equipment to Taiwan for
example in 2022 Paladin mobile howitzers
which were originally to be received by
the Taiwanese military were sent to
Ukraine this is just one example
example of course all this may just be
an excuse in fact the biggest problem
for Taiwan is not in Ukraine but
curiously enough in the Middle East
countries such as Jordan Qatar Saudi
Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have
acquired weapons that Taiwan would
actually need on a massive scale
Hellfire air to ground missiles Harpoon
anti-ship missiles Patriot air defense
systems Abrams Tanks f-16s the list is
long and visual politic viewers Ukraine
has received practically none of these
things or at least not that much and
certainly much less than the equipment
that has been sold to Middle Eastern
countries so the excuse of Aid to Taiwan
what can I say it doesn't seem
particularly clear especially since if
Russia were to take over Ukraine that
could encourage Beijing to try to do the
same with Taiwan the United States
should be thinking about how to get its
formidable War Industry back in shape
that must be the top priority today
naturally for the economic and political
interests of the United States itself in
any case we are in 2024 and what is
happening in 2024 of course you all know
United States presidential elections and
this could Mark a new Turning Point
check it
out Trump Ukraine's worst
enemy the US presidential election is
still some time away but what is clear
is that without having reached the Oval
Office yet Donald Trump is already
changing the country's foreign policy in
several videos we have already told you
how Ukraine is having trouble defending
its positions due to lack of supplies
for months now the Biden Administration
has been trying to pass its Aid package
for Ukraine but Aid has slowed to a
crawl passed in the Senate at the time
of making this video we are still
awaiting the House of Representatives
first house Speaker Mike Johnson
rejected the package for not including
funding for Border enforcement with
Mexico but the issue is that Johnson
fears the same fate as his predecessor
Kevin McCarthy and we cannot forget that
Trump's Congressman the Maga Congressman
you know make America great again
succeeded in outing McCarthy and it is
precisely these Trump friendly
congressmen who continue to block aids
to Ukraine
today the current gridlock in Congress
and expectations of a second Trump
presidency may lead to two potentially
unintended effects for the United States
first the cooling of relations with
Europe Trump has gone so far as to
threaten not to come to the aid of
European NATO countries in the event
that they were attacked by Russia
secondly most analysts agree if Trump
comes to power and withdraws assistance
to Ukraine as he has already promised he
will do on numerous occasions this could
be understood as a clear sign of
weakness of the West in general and of
the United States in particular in
regards to autocracies such as Russia
China or Iran after all support for
Ukraine is not only intended to prevent
a Russian Victory but also to show the
world the determination and strength
that the West still
Harbors think about it if Uncle Sam had
not supported Ukraine Xi Jinping could
have concluded that he had free reign in
Taiwan it would be something similar to
what he already did with Hong Kong or
when the West did nothing following the
Russian invasion of Crimea and if the
United States were to withdraw its
support for Ukraine now it would be
making it clear that it is not capable
of keeping up with countries like Russia
Iran or China itself therefore the
concern about continued aids to Ukraine
is not only in the Biden Administration
but also in the Taiwanese Administration
taiwan's leadership extremely worried us
could abandon Ukraine
Taiwan fears that stalled Ukraine Aid
foreshadows their future if China
invades in other words it is the exact
opposite of what many Republicans
reasonably close to or at least not
hostile to trumpism
advocate so you see visual politic
community support for Ukraine hangs in
the balance Republican pressure in
Congress and expectations of a new Trump
presidency have further tightened the
news and it is not only affecting
Ukrainian resilience but also taiwan's
security expectations for the time being
Russia continues to attack Ukraine
Ukraine continues to defend itself as
best as it can and the world is
expectant of the possible arrival of
Donald Trump and the final blow to
Ukrainian assistance but having come
this far the question is now for you do
you think the US should continue to fund
Ukraine do you think it is possible that
Uncle Sam could help both Ukraine and
Taiwan at the same time you can leave me
your answers down in the comments as
always don't forget that here on visual
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next one all the best see you next time
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