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there exists an imminent danger of
nuclear weapons in East Asia North
Korea's nuclear and missile program is a
direct threat as I often say Ukraine of
today maybe East Asia of tomorrow
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[Applause]
if the invasion of Ukraine has Unleashed
a huge arms race in Europe in East Asia
the main obsession is to find a nuclear
cover in particular South Korea and
Japan have long been behind the US
nuclear umbrella there are plenty of
reasons for
this for years Tokyo and SE have been
putting up with threats from North Korea
and the launching of Intercontinental
missile tests that every now and then
put the security systems of these two
countries on alert this is no joke North
Korea is an openly hostile country with
six successful nuclear tests since
2006 in recent years the bided
Administration has greatly expanded its
commitment to protecting its allies in
this corner of the world however that
has not stopped a growing number of
voices in South Korea from clamoring for
Less Reliance on Uncle Sam and wanting
to have their own strategic deterrent
the number num are quite clear nearly
73% of South Koreans want country to
develop nuclear weapons and in Japan
well there the story is a bit more
complicated because of what happened in
Hiroshima and Nagasaki but the truth is
that in this case the Japanese may not
be so far away from having their own
nuclear weapons Japan is happy to let
neighbors like China and North Korea
believe it is part of the nuclear Club
because it has a bomb in the basement
the material and the means to produce
nuclear weapons within 6 months
According to some ES indeed this is why
many analysts consider Japan to be a de
facto nuclear State now do these two
Asian Powers really need to have their
own nuclear Arsenal how close are they
to being able to get it how would this
change the geopolitical chess board in
the region well we're going to tell you
all that and more in this video let's
get
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started the history of nuclear weapons
in Korea and Japan is not exactly new
for example since the 1950s and until
the US's return of Okinawa to the
Japanese Administration in 1972 the
Americans had nuclear weapons stationed
there and in South Korea it was even
more obvious because Soul unlike Tokyo
had no problem with the deployment of
nuclear weapons in the country logically
they considered them to be the best
possible deterrent for stopping North
Korea in fact for 33 long years between
1958 and 1991 Uncle Sam had nuclear
weapons in South Korea and not just a
few he accumulated up to 950 Warheads in
this country one way or another and
despite never having finished developing
them nuclear weapons have always been a
matter of life and death for soul
nevertheless with the end of the Cold
War and the nonproliferation treaties
agreed with Moscow the United States
began to redeploy and Destroy many of
these nuclear weapons the Americans
however pledged to continue to protect
their allies with their nuclear umbrella
the idea was to do so with the weapons
stationed in their own enclaves such as
the island of Guam but what if this is
no longer
enough the TR of South Koreans and
Japanese in the United States was
severely damaged during Donald Trump's
presidency a period in which the former
president's attacks criticisms and lack
of commitment to his major allies in
Asia was a constant we're referring to
things like these for instance Trump
demands Japan in South Korea pay for
nuclear umbrella Trump Administration
weighs troop cut in South Korea Trump
wants to end horrible South Korea us
trade deal Koreans disagree the dream of
any enemy of soul and Tokyo politically
militarily and commercially Trump was
all about punishing these countries at
the same time as you will remember he
loved to goof around in meetings full of
smiles and love letters with Kim Jong
meetings that by the way ended up being
totally futile they served absolutely no
purpose evidently all of these things
fued a growing debate in both Japan and
South Korea about whether perhaps
relying too much on the United States
was a mistake and of course now that
Trump is running for re-election as
president this debate has flared up
again among other reasons because the
former president ignores soul and Tokyo
when it comes to making decisions and
drawing up plans such as this one Donald
Trump is considering a plan to let North
Korea keep its nuclear weapons and offer
its regime Financial incentives to stop
making new bombs according to three
people briefed on his thinking
denuclearization B what's the point you
keep your bombs and what's more I'll
send you a few checks the perfect
message for other sat trps around the
world to embark on the same Adventure at
this rate we'll see Washington financing
North Korea Iran and any other warlord
who wants to get his own apocalyptic
confetti
packet as you can imagine news like this
goes completely against the grain of
what South Korea and Japan are looking
for and of course that has consequences
consequences like this South Korean
calls to acquire nuclear weapons which
were subdued for the past year following
steps to strengthen the US South Korea
Alliance are once again bubbling to the
surface ahead of the possible return of
former US president Donald Trump not so
strange right but back to the initial
question could the these two countries
acquire their own nuclear weapons even
if it means violating the
non-proliferation treaty they themselves
signed the answer is yes both South
Korea and Japan are ready to build
nuclear bombs within a few months this
is something they have been stealthily
preparing for over the years for example
Korea had a nuclear program developed
during the dictatorship of PK chungi
that in 1972 after three active years
was cancelled however the knowledge
acquired during that time is still
preserved let's just say that the
research never fell into Oblivion and in
Japan well it was a very similar story
over the years they have tried to have a
fairly precise knowledge of how to
develop nuclear devices at full speed
although in this case as we shall see
there are added difficulties in any case
if this is so if both countries are so
close why haven't they started to
manufacture bombs as for instance Israel
has done well let's take a
look he who can and will
not Japan is a country where the nuclear
issue is practically a social taboo and
no wonder it's the only country that has
suffered not one but two nuclear attacks
that is something that has given them a
real fear of these weapons do you want
to know a curious story about this well
check it out in July 2023 the
Oppenheimer movie was released which as
most of you probably know is about the
Manhattan Project but what if I told you
that in Japan it didn't hit theaters
until March 2024 almost a year later yes
that's right and the question is why
well take a look cinemagoers in Japan
will soon be able to see box office hit
Oppenheimer the Blockbusters release was
postponed toid controversy over an
unofficial marketing campaign that
critics said trivialized the 1945
nuclear attacks on Hiroshima and
Nagasaki if this is happening because of
a movie about the American nuclear
program imagine what would happen if
someone were to openly say that Japan
has to get into the nuclear war race
something that on the other hand many of
you may find contradictory after all
Japan is one of the most nuclear
countries R in the world it owes much of
its Economic Development to the energy
of atoms and it is the country that does
the most Research into civil nuclear
applications however unlike South Korea
when it comes to weapons things change
radically for example 2019 a survey
analyzed Japanese opinion on the recent
treaty on the prohibition of nuclear
weapons we're talking about a treaty
launched in 2017 that ultimately seeks
to eliminate nuclear weapons well check
out the results 3/4 of the Japanese
population supports the elimination of
nuclear weapons we're talking about an
idea deeply rooted among Japanese people
of all ages Sexes and income levels but
be careful because that's not all a 2017
survey revealed that eight out of 10
Japanese would not even agree with the
US using nuclear weapons against North
Korea even in the event of pongyang
attacking Japan in other words they
would not want to use nuclear weapons
even in self-defense although we would
have to see what could happen when the
time comes if you have dealt with
Japanese people you will know that one
thing is what they tell you they think
and another thing is what they actually
end up
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doing whatever the case the point is
that in this whole matter any Japanese
politician has to declare himself
adverse to his country's nuclear
rearmament regardless of whether he
actually thinks it might be a good thing
for National Security it's simply
something that could not be said well
maybe except for this guy Japan's
ex-leader Shinzo AB says the country
should think about getting nukes after
stepping down as the head of government
in 2020 the late Shinzo AR became a a
figurehead for Japanese rearmament ARB
moved to introduce a more pragmatic view
of nuclear deterrence in the public
debate especially in light of the
invasion against Ukraine in 2022 nor
should we forget that apart from North
Korea Russia is also a country bordering
Japan not only that Moscow has a
territorial dispute with Tokyo over the
kuril islands however ab's assassination
in July 2022 removed such ideas from the
political agenda outright that said the
question that I'm sure many of you are
wondering is so what about the possibil
of Japan developing its own nuclear
deterrent well if we listen to the
current prime minister who moreover was
AR's Minister and from the same party
the truth is that the idea seems to have
gone to the Grave with the former prime
minister I have worked to revitalize the
nonproliferation treaty regime so that
we can gain momentum in pursuit of the
aspiration you see kida's family is from
Hiroshima and he has been a legislator
for the first electoral District of
Hiroshima for no less than seven terms
and of course given such a track record
it's no wonder that kushida has often
said that he considers the fight against
nuclear proliferation to be his life's
work and not only that in 1971 Japan's
own Parliament adopted the so-called
three anti-nuclear principles a state
policy that prohibits possessing
producing and allowing the introduction
of nuclear weapons from third countries
into Japan so in order to complete the
nuclear weapons program they would first
have to abolish these principles and
what can I say the way Japanese politics
and Society are configured this seems
very complicated if not impossible
however it's one thing to know what you
can or want to do and quite another to
know whether it would really be in
Japan's interest to have nuclear weapons
that's the big question and the answer
is probably
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yes the development of nuclear weapons
by Japan and also South Korea would
rebalance the military deterrence
capability in the region we're talking
about East Asia an area where all the
nuclear powers are dictatorships that
attack freedoms and in some cases play
outside International
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roles naturally we're talking about
China and North Korea two countries that
are already nuclear powers and at this
point the question that many of us
should ask ourselves is wouldn't it be
reasonable for two of the only liberal
democracies in the area to have at least
that much capacity in Japan despite
having the capability you can see that
it's not popular at all however the
situation in South Korea is completely
different so could this country become
the first Democratic nuclear nation in
East Asia in the near future well pay
attention because it could be closer
than we think check it
out nukes yes nukes
no South Korea's and Japan's views on
nuclear weapons as we have told you have
been and are very different in fact if
we were to bet on which of the two
countries might have nuclear weapons of
Their Own soonest betting on Japan would
almost be like betting on your
grandmother winning the New York
Marathon running in ballet shoes now why
do we say that North Korea might not be
far away from becoming a nuclear power
well you see as we've told you before
since the early 1990s the United States
no longer has nuclear warheads deployed
in South Korea and now the debate about
a nuclear program of its own is growing
like wildfire especially after Trump's
presidency as we saw earlier 7 out of 10
South Koreans are in favor of the
country having Atomic weapons but why
are more and more people supporting this
idea okay I'm sure your quickest answer
will be North Korea right well no I'm
sorry look at
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this only 23% of South Koreans want
their country to develop nuclear weapons
in order to counter threats from North
Korea what's more the most popular
response at nearly 40% is to defend
against threats from others that have
nothing to do with North
Korea any idea who we might be talking
about
exactly China's military expansion and
aggressive posturing and North Korea's
nuclear expansion are changing Allied
threat perceptions especially in Asia
these come on the heels of the Trump
administration's extortionate approach
to alliances which seriously damaged us
credibility China despite being Soul's
largest trading partner is also the
biggest security challenge regionally
ahead of even North Korea Soul has long
been concerned about beijing's military
expansion its increasingly belligerent
rhetoric its verbal aggress riveness and
constant provocations against
Taiwan in fact China also lashes out at
South Korea from time to time for
example in December 2023 Russian and
Chinese bombers and Fighters jointly and
illegally entered the airspace of South
Korea and Japan even circling the South
Korean islands of ulongo and doo so much
so that the South Korean and Japanese
Air Forces had to deploy Interceptor
Fighters that was not the only time
China has engaged in military
provocation of South Korea infiltrations
into South Korea's air defense
identification Zone by China have been
going on for years what was different
last December was that they did it
alongside Russia and in the midst of the
war in Ukraine what message are these
two dictatorial regimes trying to send
us who knows but certainly these things
help explain the sudden affection the
South Koreans seem to have for nuclear
weapons not only that but for many South
Koreans having Atomic weapons is not
only a matter of National Security but
also a matter of national pride and
identity you know they think that with
the Atomic weapon no one will dare to
fight them again well obviously this
enormous social support means that
unlike in Japan more and more
politicians are advocating this
possibility including the current South
Korean president yunck
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Yol now if South Korea is under the US
nuclear umbrella why do they want to
have their own radioactive mushrooms
well because when it comes down to to it
the South Koreans are not sure that the
Americans would dare to use their atomic
bombs to defend
them five out of 10 South Koreans
believe that the White House would think
twice about helping Soul this is in a
scenario of active conflict with North
Korea if the conflict were with another
Power such as China although that is
much less likely surely even fewer
people would believe the US would help
in fact only 36% of South Koreans
believe that Washington would come to
their assistance without hesitation in
the event of a rocket fight with
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pongyang and remember this is happening
in a country that had already been
helped by the United States in the
Korean War and that basically owes Uncle
Sam for its very existence these are
really bad confidence figures now not
all of the blame for this distrust comes
from Trump's terrible attitude towards
soul and other allies during his
presidency an important part of this
distrust also comes from the limitations
that the United States has historically
imposed on South Korea's development of
local weapons you see for years South
Korea has had to follow the so-called
ballistic missile range guidelines
agreed to in 1979 whereby the United
States has been limiting Soul's ability
to develop certain types of weapons why
well until the early 1990s South Korea
was a military dictatorship and trust
between the two governments however
Allied they were was surely not what it
is today nevertheless with changes over
time it was not until May 2021 that
South Korea was completely freed from
these restrictions on the development of
missiles of their their choice us lifts
missile restrictions on South Korea
ending range and Warhead limits why has
it taken so long is it because of a lack
of mutual distrust is it because they
are subjected to the United States well
only the United States really knows the
fact is that South Korea is now at a
Crossroads it's a country where the
majority of the population wants to have
nuclear weapons current government also
looks favorably on developing its own
nuclear weapons but the problem is that
it cannot do so why well here comes the
big issue in this whole story and it
explains why neither Soul nor Tokyo May
ever have their own Atomic weapons
listen
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up the
harakiri yes politically strategically
and militarily it may make all the sense
in the world for these two liberal
democracies the only ones in East Asia
beside Taiwan to have their atomic bombs
however have you stopped to think about
the price it would cost them I'll tell
you right now it would be so high that
perhaps the cost benefit leans more
towards continuing to rely on the
American nuclear umbrella indefinitely
you see if either of these two countries
were to embark on this adventure the
first thing that would surely happen
would be an enormous erosion of their
International image starting with the
fact that they would have to abandon the
nonproliferation treaty they have signed
so not a great start that would be
tremendously unpopular at the
international level then they would
probably get up to their necks in an
intense political and economic
confrontation with China for example
don't forget the brutal economic boycott
launched by the Chinese government
against Soul when the US F missile
Shield was installed in South Korea
suddenly the country ran dry of Chinese
tourists South Korean Brands virtually
stopped doing business in China and the
economic damage was enormous can you
imagine what would happen in the event
of launching a nuclear
program China is the largest trading
partner for South Korean exports and the
second largest for Japanese exports
close behind the United States so the
damage could be enormous and not only
that China and Russia could also
legitimize even more the North Korean
nuclear program closing any possible
door to support resolutions at the UN
against it they could even ignore
International sanctions and openly
assist the Communist Regime in pongyang
both militarily and economically so the
economic political and even security
costs would become so high that for now
it seems that neither Soul nor Tokio
will develop their own nuclear weapons
and that perhaps the South Korean
pressures are aimed only at obtaining
greater commitments from Washington now
what do you think do you think South
Korea could really end up developing the
atomic bomb do you think Japan would
change its mind about it if China
continues to become more and more
dangerous and could the two countries
end up agreeing to allow the US to
deploy nuclear weapons of its own on its
territory well leave us your opinions
Below in the comments and let's start a
debate and very important if you liked
this video hit the like button and
subscribe to visual politic if you
haven't already done so as always thank
you for being there all the best see you
next time
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