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the relationship with Russia has taken a
new leap suddenly the tension has become
once again redh hot the drums of War are
beating and at the highest level all
kinds of warnings about a new phase of
the war can be heard a much more
disturbing phase the threat of War War
may not be imminent but it is not
impossible and the risks of War should
not be
overblown but they should be prepared
for and that starts with the urgent need
to rebuild replenish and modernize
member States armed
forces macron says sending Western
troops to Ukraine cannot be ruled out
French President also drops opposition
to artillery purchases for Kiev from
outside the EU and Putin of course has
responded Vladimir Putin warns a wider
conflict over Ukraine Russian president
makes most explicit threat to use
nuclear weapons since fullscale Invasion
but what exactly could explain why we
once again seem to be on the brink of
the Abyss why has the tension been
ratcheting up once again well this is
one of the most important videos we have
ever made in the history of visual
politic by the way if you want us to
continue making these kinds of videos
you can give us a hand via our patreon
and also follow us on visual economic
this will help us a lot to move forward
with more and better content the point
is that the mainstream media may not be
very aware of it but as you can see in
this video a war on NATO territory could
be much closer than we all think and I'm
sure absolutely certain that you have
all heard these statements would not
protect you in fact I would encourage
them to do whatever the hell they want
would not protect you in fact I would
encourage them to do whatever the hell
they work indeed the former US president
said loud and clear that if he were to
return to the Oval Office he would not
defend Europe against a Russian attack
he even said he would applaud or
encourage Putin if he did ultimately
decide to attack but wait a minute is
this just electoral Tom Foolery or is
there more to it why are so many
analysts taking these statements
extremely seriously what would be the
consequences of the United States
abandoning its NATO commitments visual
politic Community pay close attention to
this video because we are going to
explain to you many of the things that
are not being mentioned about the
implications of the war in Ukraine and
also about what Donald Trump's return to
the White House could mean the first
scenario you are about to see is the
nightmare that frightens many analysts
and Military experts in the old
continent right now especially in the
former Warsaw Pact countries which let's
face it know the Russians particularly
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well
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the year is 2026 Trump is in the second
year of his second presidency Ukraine is
still struggling but Western Aid has
been reduced to dribs and drabs the
front lines are frozen and suddenly
Trump keeps his word he announces that
the United States will no longer honor
its NATO commitments it is even
beginning to withdraw troops from
European territory to focus on the
Chinese threat in the Indo Pacific then
at that precise moment Vladimir Putin
sees his great opportunity overnight in
Estonia an incident occurs a false flag
action against the Russian speaking
population Moscow is outraged and
thousands of non-uniformed men
infiltrate Estonia chaos spreads the
kremlin's denunciations escalate and
before long missiles begin to fall on
the Amari Airbase which is where NATO
has its air surveillance Force deployed
in Estonia meanwhile hundreds of
thousands of units from the Leningrad
military districts are pouring in with
tanks and mobile artillery systems on
the small Estonian Republic supposedly
they are doing so to protect the Russian
speaking population that is being
persecuted does this reasoning ring any
bells I'm sure it does it is already a
tried and true formula in the kremlin's
foreign policy but let's move on Russian
troops are facing only about 10,000
Estonian troops and a few thousand
reinforcements from NATO countries at
that moment in order to prevent a
possible large scale response Putin
covered his back and threatens to use
his nuclear Arsenal if any country
attacks Russian territory he directly
targets cities such as Warsaw Stockholm
and Berlin in a matter of days Russian
troops control Eastern Estonia starting
with Nava that part of the country is
home to a large part of ethnic Estonian
Russian minority well once this
operation is completed the Kremlin
threatens to continue the war if an
agreement is not reached an agreement
that may include the Handover of
Ukraine
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another alternative that Moscow could
consider if necessary would be to attack
the suuki corridor the narrow strip of
land that separates kaliningrad from
Belarus the procedure would be basically
the same well along with Eastern Estonia
this is another one of the potentially
hottest spots in all of Europe the point
is that by means of the operation we
have just described Putin would be able
to turn the tables suddenly he would be
in a very advantageous negotiating
position think about it what would
prevent him from doing so all right
Article 5 of NATO but guess what there
is the problem without the United States
the nuclear umbrella disappears so
automatically Article 5 would
essentially comprise a conventional War
response an old-fashioned war that would
be fought in European countries not in
Russia so remember that Moscow does have
a huge nuclear Arsenal at its disposal
enough to deter any aggression so NATO
would find itself in a terribly
compromised situation it could go to war
with Russia but this battle will be
fought in the btics and perhaps also in
Romania Bulgaria or
Poland yes it is virtually certain that
the European NATO countries would
eventually Prevail and that of course
would mean a few tens perhaps hundreds
of thousands of Russian casualties but
in the eyes of the Kremlin who cares
Putin has already shown that soldiers
are nothing more than meat ready to put
in the grinder the most important thing
is the Russian motherland and if the
price to pay for getting his way is a
few hundred th000 lives that's a price
He's Surely willing to
accept Europeans on the other hand would
have a much more difficult time along
the way we would see hundreds of
thousands of dead millions of refugees
and European cities raised to the ground
just like what has happened in marol and
back mut to avoid that terrible scenario
the other option would be to negotiate
with Putin and agree to aase fire which
would perhaps include even the return of
Eastern Estonia but of course that would
not be for free at the very least the
Kremlin would ask for the absolute and
total surrender of Ukraine and let's be
honest it is very likely that under such
circumstances it would eventually get
the prize Putin and Russia understand
that they cannot defeat NATO militarily
they can only defeat NATO politically
what can I say there would be no
shortage of arguments why risk having to
face Another fullscale War in Europe
over a handful of square kilometers in
Estonia or over a country like Ukraine
that is already destroyed wouldn't it be
better for everyone to negotiate peace
with Putin and get back access to cheap
gas in the process do we really want to
risk seeing the medieval centers of
cities like talene or vilus under
artillery fire visual politic community
in this way Putin would go down in
history as the leader who made Russia
greater G the leader who would have
destroyed the Atlantic relationship for
years and who on top of everything would
have returned Ukraine to the motherland
let's remember that not even Peter the
Great achieved so much and you know how
much Putin likes history okay this would
be the most extreme scenario but a
hybrid war with lots and lots of voltage
would not be out of the question either
and the outcome might not be much
different the point is that so far this
scenario has been completely impossible
and that basically comes down to one
reason the enormous Firepower and the
immense nuclear umbrella of the United
States
without that nuclear umbrella and
without that enormous Firepower the
military spending of European countries
is practically worthless that is why
Trump's words are far more serious than
mere buffoonery if as president he were
to cast doubt on us backing that alone
could encourage Moscow to take the
plunge in other words Trump's words
remove nuclear deterrence the key factor
that for decades has prevented
full-scale Wars between NATO countries
and the Soviet Union from the equation
and keep in mind that in a conventional
war on European soil Russia would always
have the upper hand yes as we've already
said in the long run Moscow would lose
the war and would have to retreat to its
original borders but occupying Estonia
Lithuania or the suuki corridor would
not be its end goal the true objective
would be to put so much pressure and so
much fear on the Europeans that they
would finally agree to negotiate but
wait a minute I'm sure that some of you
are thinking that we have forgotten
something very important that there are
two European countries that do have
nuclear weapons France and the
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UK the United Kingdom has some 200
nuclear warheads and France around 300
are these nuclear arsenals not in
themselves a sufficient deterrent Force
well I'm sorry to say it but these days
they're not the problem is not that they
are much smaller than the Russian
weapons but more importantly that
currently the legislation of these two
countries only allows the use of these
weapons in the case of a direct threat
to National Defense that is if the
United Kingdom or France were directly
attacked in recent times there has been
some talk to try to change this so that
these weapons could defend the entire
continent much as the United States has
done so far the question is whether the
UK or France and especially the British
and French would really be willing to
risk a nuclear exchange with Russia
because of what might happen in a
Eastern European country like Estonia
Lithuania Poland or Romania and even if
the legislation were changed would they
really dare to press the button keep in
mind one thing doubts by themselves are
a risk they erode the power of
deterrence and don't forget that Putin
is a gambler who likes to bet big if he
sees the slightest opportunity anyway
whatever the future may be this is not
the case today and since other European
countries do not have Atomic weapons not
least because Washington put up its
nuclear umbrella to gain influence and
avoid massive nuclear proliferation
conventional War would be the result
without the United States the chances of
a confrontation with Russia multiply it
is a simple matter of game theory that
Putin might be interested in
exploiting but wait a minute is all that
we are telling you really a likely
scenario I bet some of you are thinking
B all this is nothing but a load of hot
air from these guys from visual politic
they're catastrophizing well no I'm
sorry to say it but no this is not
something that we just came up with
after one crazy night it's a scenario
that is gaining more and more weight
within Europe don't believe me well just
take a look Russia could attack a NATO
country within 3 to 5 years warns
Denmark there is now a window that may
last for one two or maybe 3 years a time
during which we must invest even more in
good defense and keep in mind that it's
not just Denmark and Norway Sweden civil
defense minister Carl Oscar Bolin has
gone so far as to say and I quote
verbate let me say it with the power of
the office there could be war in Sweden
in fact he has even asked the
municipalities to make contingency plans
meanwhile in December of 2023 the head
of Poland's National Security office
said that NATO's Eastern flank has only
3 years to prepare for confrontation and
for their part analysts in Romania the
UK and Ukraine are pointing in exactly
the same direction in fact the bunders
there the German Armed Forces is already
preparing some combat scenarios along
the same lines and pay attention because
even for many analysts the US nuclear
umbrella might not be enough why because
in the face of political anxiety Putin
could understand that a limited attack
on a limited Target such as Eastern
Estonia might cause NATO to prefer to
negotiate before unleashing a nuclear
storm let us say it again it is a matter
of game theory of course this Potential
Threat is being taken most seriously in
the Baltic republics in fact that's what
explains news items like this there will
be 600 bunkers in the Border areas of a
Estonia this is not a crazy project but
a firm decision Estonia a member country
of the European Union is going to build
hundreds of bunkers along its border
with Russia and along with these
facilities which will begin Construction
in early 2025 the deployment of many
defense weapons is included Dragon Teeth
complex barbed wire anti-tank missiles
mines against armor artillery and a lot
of devices of all kinds Russia's war in
Ukraine has shown that in addition to
equipment ammunition and Manpower we
also need physical defense facilities On
the Border to protect Estonia from the
first meter and obviously it's not just
Estonia Latvia and Lithuania have also
agreed to build a huge network of
bunkers and defenses along their borders
with Russia and belus and it goes even
further in 2023 ltia which had been the
only Baltic Republic without it restored
compulsory military service and
Lithuania is approving huge purchases of
military equipment including a large
package to get hold of dozens of
state-of-the-art leopard
twos these are just a few examples of
the many actions being taken by these
three small republics that are ramping
up their military spending of course
given their small size and capacity they
could hardly put up much resistance in
the event of a massive Invasion by the
way do you remember that here on visual
politic we've already told you about the
gigantic effort that Poland is making to
catch up and build the largest land Army
in Europe well it has to do precisely
with all that we are telling you about
in this video now the question is what
can be done to deter or prevent a
Russian attack well we're going to take
a look at that right
now the way
forward visual politic Community what we
have told you so far is neither fantasy
nor an exercise in science fiction it is
the risk the very real threat facing
Eastern Europe yes Ukraine is not
winning this war and unless it strikes a
blow and weakens Moscow NATO territory
may be the next Target on the kremlin's
road map of course the risk would be
even greater if Donald Trump managed to
return to the White House this is
precisely the fear right now in the
baltics because the problem is that at
this point in time Europe is not ready
for war neither in terms of equipment
nor in terms of ammunition nor in terms
of military production look for example
at what this former Belgian army officer
tells us if War breaks out here we will
have to throw stones after only a few
hours because of the shortage of
ammunition it couldn't be clearer
another example we had in 2023 the
European Union pledged to deliver to
Ukraine 1 million artillery shells over
the past year but in the end was only
able to deliver about 300,000 in other
words Russia's economy is the same size
as Italy's but the kremlin's
prioritizing has meant that the country
is producing more artillery shells than
all the countries of the European Union
put together and that's not all as far
as far as the number of military
personnel is concerned the size of the
Russian army could exceed 3 million
including reservists while in the case
of the EU this figure is reduced to
around 1.3
million okay as we've already told you
in the long run the industrial economic
and technological capacity of European
countries would Prevail but remember
what we have seen moscow's idea would
not be that the war would be settled on
the battlefield I don't know just
imagine for instance would the leader of
your country be willing to send grps to
defend Estonia and face demonstrations
in all your country's public spaces or
maybe the no towar protesters would take
to the streets again you can decide for
yourselves but I think there are many
places in Europe where the answer is
clear in any case many governments now
want to reverse this situation at all
costs but changes are still taking place
way too slowly Europe is not only
unprepared for war it is not preparing
for war in Europe we have a defense
industrial capability largely designed
for peace time correcting this situation
would require two things money and time
or rather a lot of money and a lot of
time 5 to 10 years at least what could
be done to avoid the worst case scenario
well there are basically three things
you can do first support Ukraine and get
Ukraine to weaken and defeat Russian
troops second we must improve
coordination ammunition stocks the
amount of equipment and above all the
industrial base of European countries
money must be made available and it must
be made available now it's all very well
spending hundreds of billions on the
very green and eco-focused Next
Generation pandemic Recovery Fund but
ensuring safety should be the number one
priority well here the European Union
could help by issuing bonds and
providing financing on favorable terms
to EU members so that they could boost
their defense capabilities with European
production thus providing an incentive
for a military-industrial fabric that
today seems to have disappeared or is
run down following that a plan could be
established for them to repay These
funds over a comfortable period of 10 15
or 20 years this is one possibility
amongst many thus According to some
experts in terms of military production
within 2 to 3 years with sufficient
investment European countries could
catch up and thirdly to copy the model
of some European countries such as
Finland we have a very strong Air Force
Army and Navy including of course
Weaponry including the biggest artillery
in Europe along with Poland Finland a
country bordering Russia and a recent
NATO member has been preparing to defend
itself against Russia for years but it's
not just about weapons Finland a country
of just 5.5 million people has 900,000
citizens with military
training another example would be the
Estonian Defense League a voluntary
military organization that is preparing
to face a possible Russian invasion
established in 1990 after Liberation
from the Soviet Union this military
Reserve has a force of 18,000 troops who
undergo continuous training and keep
rifles and machine guns in their own
homes well reinforcing these types of
forces at least in Central and Eastern
European countries could be a good idea
to stop any nefarious moves by Russia
for now Vladimir Putin insists that the
idea of attacking NATO is ridiculous the
problem is that he once said exactly the
same thing about Ukraine and then the
Russian invasion was also thought to be
completely
farfetched we have forgotten that in
reality peace is a rare thing when we
look back in human history and that in
reality War has been a constant part of
our history for Millennia have
non-proliferation agreements been a shot
in the foot for countries like Germany
and Poland could Trump shatter the
Atlantic Alliance Well for now only
along the Russian Borderlands these
questions ReSound loudly in Western
Europe this matter still sounds like a
movie script for many people but for now
it's your turn how would you avoid the
risk of a clash with Russia what do you
think the European Union should do leave
us your answers in the comments and
let's start a debate and if you found
this video interesting please do us a
huge favor by hitting that like button
thank you very much for watching all the
best see you next
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