[Music]
Taiwan has a new president Li Ching also
known as William lie was sworn in on
20th of May amid strong threats from
China and pro-independence
statements I hope that China will face
the reality of taiwan's existence
respect the choices of the people of
Taiwan and in good faith choose dialogue
over confrontation so of course the
presidential inauguration has been
anything but smooth for Life The Beijing
regime responded to the arrival of the
new president by nothing less than
carrying out new massive Invasion drills
on Taiwan it was beijing's unusual
welcome and a clear warning to what they
consider a president very much inclined
to secession China says military drills
encircling Taiwan designed to test its
ability to seize power what you see
right now on screen are the two biggest
Invasion drills Beijing has conducted in
the last 2 years this one from 24th of
May and one from August 2022 with these
exercises the Chinese regime has
encircled Taiwan by sea and air in what
can be interpreted as terrible
psychological warfare to threaten the
Taiwanese and tell them that if you take
one step out of line in a few hours you
will become part of the People's
Republic of
China in other words we are facing an
action of subjugation what siing Ping's
regime is doing is telling the Taiwanese
that everything they have democracy
autonomy freedom of expression security
is because Beijing lets them have it
until they get tired of it and take it
away from them and of course with the
Hong Kong precedent and news items like
this the Outlook is not reassuring China
drops peaceful reunification reference
to Taiwan now with all these threats
which the Taiwanese have been putting up
with for decades you would think that
the island a fairly wealthy country with
a GDP per capita similar to that of
South Korea would put a veritable
Fortune into its military budget don't
you agree but what if I told you that
this is not the case at all take a look
at this statistic South Korea a country
also under great threat in its case from
its northern neighbor invests around 3%
of its GDP in defense while Taiwan
barely exceeds 2% what's more that 2% is
only thanks to the increase in recent
years and what can I say given the
current situation it seems much more
likely that China will try to do
something serious in Taiwan then that
North Korea will try to do something
serious to its Southern neighbor so 2%
at a time of Maximum tension I don't
know doesn't seem like a huge effort as
a comparison many of the Eastern
European countries bordering Russia and
bellarus are already spending more than
3% on defense this has led the visual
politic team to ask ourselves a very
clear question why on Earth does Taiwan
spend so little on defense are they not
concerned about the Chinese threat what
is the explanation for this apparent
incongruity well we've done our homework
and now in this video we're going to
tell you all about it in detail so let's
get started
[Music]
it's always been the great Obsession of
Chinese leaders since Mao zong triumphed
with his Communist Revolution in 1949
this has always been a priority
objective to recover the only territory
that historically resisted the Chinese
Communist Party Taiwan the island where
the leaders of the Republic of China and
the kuming Tang took Refuge we've
already talked about it many times on
visual politic now the Slowdown of the
Chinese economy domestic problems and
the trade war with the United States
have further fueled the Nationalist
discourse and of course if there is one
thing that fuels Chinese nationalism
above anything else it is precisely the
Taiwan issue which is also one of the
reasons why China is modernizing its
Armed Forces by Leaps and Bounds now as
I said before with this growing threat
it would be reasonable to think that
Taiwan is increasing its military
spending wouldn't it after all we're
talking about the fact that it's very
existence may be in danger well look at
this
graph as you can see and despite a small
recent rebound the trend in Taiwan over
the recent decades has been to make a
smaller and smaller economic effort in
defense if we look at the data of the
last decade we might well think that
defense has been far from being a
priority in taipe the result is that
between 1996 and 2019 the percentage of
GDP devoted to defense was cut in half
which trust me is easier said than done
and things don't seem to be changing
much either increases in military
spending have been announced but not
with much sign of change Taiwan plan's
smallest rise in military spending in 6
years and this alone is something to
make our heads explode Taiwan is
threatened by China in recent years this
island has become a key strategic
Enclave for Global industry thanks to
its famous microchips and yet Taiwan
does not seem to take defense
particularly seriously most military
analyses of the state of its armed
forces are clear Taiwan does not spend
enough but to illustrate this further
let's take a closer look at the defense
efforts they are actually
making Taiwan currently is spending $79
per capita on defense and amount similar
to countries without imminent
geopolitical risks such as the
Netherlands or New Zealand by comparison
Singapore spends about $2,200 per capita
and Israel almost $3,000 so you see with
the data in hand it seems that
Washington is more concerned about the
security of the island than the
Taiwanese government strange don't you
think and remember we're not the only
ones to have noticed the United States
has been urging them for years to
redouble their efforts in order to be
able to face a Chinese Invasion when the
time comes a scenario that seems less
and less unlikely and do you know
something even stranger contrary to many
other countries public opinion in Taiwan
is mostly in favor of increasing
military spending more than half of
Taiwanese support defense budget of 3%
of GDP 41% of those pulled are willing
to pay higher taxes to increase defense
budget to reach this 3% of GDP in
defense in 2023 6.6 billion dollar more
would have had to be spent than was
actually spent but then if the threat
exists and Taiwanese Society supports it
why does the defense budget of this
island seem to be so low well let's find
out false sense of
security one question have you ever
considered what the US would do if China
were to attack Taiwan well those of you
who think that Uncle Sam would
definitely defend Taipei congratulations
you think the same as the Taiwanese
government this is no joke it's a
sentiment that may be a long way toward
explaining why taiwan's defense spending
is not higher but what if I told you
that there is a huge gray area in that
interpretation to begin with in terms of
Defense Taiwan us relations are built
through so-called strategic ambiguity in
other words the Americans neither
confirm nor deny that they would go out
to protect the Taiwanese in the event of
a Chinese Invasion there is no
protection agreement and there is no
defensive umbrella or anything of the
sort this is a totally different
situation from what is happening in
South Korea for example the only thing
the Taiwanese have today beyond the
support of Joe Biden who has said
several times that he would defend
Taiwan is perhaps an unpublished
communication of intent if Biden does
not remain in the White House and
another less committed president arrives
in the future Taipei would have
virtually nothing and you you may ask
how is it possible that what is probably
one of America's most threatened allies
is not under any umbrella of protection
well I'm guessing you can already
imagine where this is going
China to begin with Taiwan is not
recognized as a state by Washington
which recognizes only one China and
since 1979 that is the People's Republic
of China remember that Taiwan has never
proclaimed its independence that alone
greatly limits Washington's options to
begin with but that's far from the the
only reason as you know over the years
China has been gaining more and more
ground economically to become an export
powerhouse on which the supply chains of
almost the entire world depend this in
itself is beijing's greatest source of
protection and also its main bargaining
chip if the US goes too far with Taiwan
then China could hit the US economy very
hard and don't even ask me what would
happen to the European Union and other
allies of the West in Asia that are
heavily dependent on trade with Beijing
the catastrophe would be gigantic now of
course course this is no secret what's
more there are already precedents of
Washington making decisions contrary to
taipei's interests so as to not upset
China do you want an example let's go
back to
2001 that year as you all know the 9/11
attacks on the Twin Towers in New York
took place and George Bush then began to
build an alliance to fight Global
terrorism the famous War on Terror at
that time Taiwan was on the verge of
closing a deal to buy American F-16
Fighters and you know what happened bush
had to delay the sale of these fighters
to facilitate China collaborating in the
anti-jihadist alliance for example with
intelligence
information so off to a great start when
it comes down to it the United States
puts its own interests before those of
taiwan's Defense at least that is what
some past events show us and it doesn't
end there added to this are the constant
delays by the United States in
delivering artillery sea defense systems
or missiles to Taiwan to give you an
idea the upgrade of the F-16 and
delivery of AGM 154 air to ground
missiles was delayed by more than a
decade in fact the backlog in arms
deliveries is so large that according to
estimates there is already about $19
billion in equipment awaiting delivery
an amount greater even than taiwan's
entire military budget in 2023 and if we
focus only on the expenditure items
aimed at buying equipment we're talking
about quite a few years of military
spending
as you can imagine this discourages the
Taiwanese government from buying more
weapons from the United States so
instead of spending on contracts that
pile up Gathering dust in some bottom
drawer that money could be spent on
other things or saved don't you agree
and of course many of you will think
well if the United States has a
bottleneck or any other problem
delivering weapons to Taipei then they
should just buy them from another
country right in the end there are many
other countries that would be happy to
feed their defense industry the United
Kingdom France Israel South Korea in
fact fact some like France occasionally
sign a contract here and there and in
the early 1990s even sold Mirage
fighters to Taiwan in other words
Washington has not been and should not
be the exclusive supplier and perhaps
not even the main one and if you think
so you are not wrong that would be ideal
under normal circumstances the problem
is that the circumstances are not normal
remember that we are talking about a
country that is not recognized as a
state by almost anyone and whose weapons
if used would surely be used in a high
HP pathetical conflict with China so you
can imagine what would happen if
suddenly the Europeans or the South
Koreans started selling arms to Taiwan
left and right China would be furious
and take action and don't forget that
we're talking about a superpower that
has more and more political military and
above all economic influence and if many
of the delays in US arms deliveries are
already due to avoiding confrontation
with China despite the US's status
imagine what would happen with a country
like South Korea for example so exports
almost a quarter of everything it
produces to the Asian giant so let me
tell you they wouldn't dream of
undertaking such an adventure what's
more the US military industry would not
be amused if Taiwan suddenly turned its
Millions to other manufacturers and of
course if there is one thing taipe does
not want it's to lose sway in Washington
well with this in mind and with the
majority in Taiwan believing that in the
end the United States would rush to save
them in the event of invasion you have
the answer why should I put money into
arms and why should I look for new
suppliers now hold on a minute because
it doesn't end there the United States
and the countries that are wary of
selling arms to Taiwan are not the only
ones responsible for Tai's low defense
spending evidently they themselves are
also at fault for much of the blame and
that is exactly what we're going to talk
about to you now stay
[Music]
tuned the game of
[Music]
politics typically parties that Advocate
increased military spending tend to have
a more right-leaning ideological
tendency and those that are less
supportive tend to be more left-leaning
that's how it works at least in most of
the world but what if I told you that in
Taiwan it's just the other way around
you see in Taiwan the traditional quing
tang and the People's Party both more
right wi tends to be reluctant to
increase defense investment while the
center-left Democratic Progressive Party
which is the one in power wants to
increase it now why am I telling you all
this well because Taiwanese politics is
a mess and that's not exactly conducive
to creating long longterm defense plans
that would help reform the military and
better equip it do you want an example
in Taiwan we have to differentiate
between the defense Baseline budget that
appears in the general budget and other
items that are considered extraordinary
and have to be approved separately in
Parliament for example let's talk about
military equipment purchases for
instance $16.6 billion was spent in 2023
but only about $13 billion was budgeted
as you can see these are not Minor
Adjustments but more than a fifth of
military spending and of course of
course the problem is that approving
each item becomes a huge political
challenge because as we have already
told you not all parties are willing to
arm themselves to the
[Music]
teeth on the one hand we have the quing
Tang which deep down still believes in
the idea of one China and seeks to try
to get along with Beijing their strategy
is to build Bridges so to speak and how
can you build Bridges if you are arming
yourself to the teeth well as you can
understand these are two things that are
difficult to reconcile on the other hand
there is the popular party of a sociol
liberal nature which considers that it's
more important to increase spending on
other social items rather than on
defense and not surprisingly since the
government is in the minority these two
parties do not miss an opportunity to
try to control as much as possible what
it does and what it spends so passing a
small military budget and then passing
additional packages bit by bit is one
way to do that given all this it's not
surprising that many analysts have
pointed out that the way the Taiwanese
Parliament functions is as a break on
maintaining stable and above all
reliable defense spending the problem is
that without a large regular budget it
is very difficult to carry out Military
reforms or modernization of the
equipment what if this year you have the
money but next year you don't get
approved for more than the Baseline
budget it would be all for nothing and
that's a problem at the same time there
is also the issue about popular support
and yes I know what you're thinking you
told me earlier that more than half of
Taiwanese want to spend more on defense
and it's true but that means that the
other almost half that doesn't want to
and these people must also be taken into
account why because the reasons why they
don't want it also make
sense you see Taiwan is one of the Asian
democracies most accustomed to spending
on the welfare state and social
assistance it is to some extent the
Sweden of Asia relatively speaking of
course after all we're talking about
Asia so Taiwanese tend to think that the
more money that goes to Arms the less
goes to social policies and that that's
not ridiculous especially in a context
where for example access to housing is
prohibitively expensive particularly for
young people and so the natural reaction
of many people is to demand aid for this
type of problem rather than to think
about missiles Fighters and tanks and
then on the other hand only a small
percentage of the population is really
worried about the possibility of a
Chinese Invasion against the country
barely 25% so the question is why do
most of them feel so confident well
according to some analysts China's
ipulation of information could be one of
the causes the fact is that China is
investing huge amounts of money in
trying to introduce its view of the
problem with Taiwan into people's minds
and no doubt the fact that Mandarin is
spoken in both countries doesn't help
either then there is also the factor
that many Taiwanese feel that any
defense spending would be futile in the
face of China's immense power in the end
what could these small Islands do
against an increasingly well equipped
military that could mobilize millions of
troops again better to spend it on
something else although if Ukraine has
taught us anything it's that this does
not have to be the
case but that's not even all many
Taiwanese also think that the very fact
that it is an island and surrounded by
underwater mines more and more of them
by the way would make Invasion so costly
that it would be unrealistic and then
there's that significant portion 55% of
the total who think that the United
States would help them in the event of
war and that in itself is enough of a
deterrent for serious consideration of
their military needs if they were to be
left on their own devices what's more in
the event of an invasion Beijing would
not be left unscathed either in fact
some analyses suggest that the
disruption of trade in the Taiwan
straight and the more than likely
massive flight of companies from the
Asian giant could cause China to lose up
to 25% of its GDP a true catastrophe
that would be so unpopular at home that
it would make it difficult for even the
most inflamed nationalism and propaganda
to keep the Chinese from raging against
their government
so you see from the west and more
specifically from the United States
Taiwan continues to be pressured to
raise its defense spending but internal
political divisions the United States
own attitude domestic differences in the
perception of the Chinese threat to the
island and above all the spending
preferences of many Taiwanese have kept
the budget at relatively low levels
considering the threat they face so at
this point the question now is over to
you do you think Taiwan is
overestimating its capability do you
think it should increase its defense
spending more importantly do you think
the US would step in to defend Taiwan in
the event of a conflict with China well
leave us your opinions Below in the
comments and let's start a debate and
very important if you liked this video
please like And subscribe to visual
politic if you haven't already done so
as always thank you for being there all
the best see you next time
[Music]