in recent weeks there have been Titanic
changes in Russian politics changes that
would determine not only the evolution
of the war in Ukraine but also the
future of the Russian Armed Forces we
are talking about a new strategy a new
vision with which Putin now hopes to
turn Russia's military power around in
this video we will tell you all the
details so let's get
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started let's begin with what could be
one of the soap opas of the Year in
Russian politics Serge shyu the previous
Minister of Defense the man in charge of
the war the strong hand and Vladimir
Putin's right-hand man was dismissed on
May 12th Putin replaces defense minister
in rare cabinet
shakeup Shu had been at the head of the
Russian Armed Forces for almost 12 Years
a time during which he was far from
standing idly by quite the contrary he
has been Russia's key figure in four of
the country's major military operations
in recent years the invasion of Crimea
in 2014 the operation in support of
al-assad in Syria in 5 the execution of
the mega plan for military reform and
modernization and of course the invasion
of Ukraine in 2022 so the question is
why was he dismissed it certainly wasn't
because he doesn't exactly get along
with Putin the Russian president has
summered played field hockey gone
fishing and even sunbathed in the
Siberian tiger with the man shyu has
been perhaps Putin's best friend in the
cabinet and yet all of a sudden Wham out
of government barely 2 months after the
Russian presidential elections in which
unsurprising ly Putin once again swept
the board with 87% of the votes votes it
is true that the president has
repositioned shyu as Secretary of the
security Council but logically this
position in an advisory body is much
less important than leading the Armed
Forces so the Crux of the matter why on
Earth did he dismiss him well let's see
at the moment there are many theories
circulating one of them even suggests
that shyu could be involved in a
corruption scam bribery case puts
Russian defense minister shy goo in the
crosshairs yes I know that power and
corruption in Russia almost go hand
inand that's true but there are limits
to everything in case you go too far and
make the big boss look bad especially if
they accuse you of stealing the money
that should go to the military on the
front that would be too much well just a
few weeks ago the police arrested shuu's
closest defense Ministry Deputy teer
ianov ianov who was in charge of such
important projects as the Reconstruction
of marol in Ukraine has been accused of
receiving bribes but of course whether
this is the real motive is still a bit
of a mystery to us after all shyu is not
even of and let me stress we are talking
about Russia here a country we're not
being corrupt makes you a
suspect normally when a high-ranking
Russian official is accused of
corruption it is usually because someone
above him in this case Putin wants to
get rid of him and I wonder could things
like this have anything to do with it
yes okay I know that Russia is far from
being at its weakest on the front in
fact the Russians have regained the
initiative and even counterattacked in
the H region but that doesn't mean
things have stopped being a mess Russia
continues to have huge problems in
supplying its Soldiers with weapons and
in any case it's still Carnage on the
front in fact if Russian pressure is
being upheld it is only because more and
more young people are being sent to die
in Ukraine there seems to be no end to
the Russian meat grinder strategy and in
that respect things have not improved
much Russia loses over 8,000 troops and
nearly 80 tanks in a week Kev Russia had
sustained
1,260 casualties in the past day kev's
Armed Forces said okay surely the
Ukrainian armed forces are not the best
source of information I think we all
know that neither the Ukrainian ones and
certainly not the Russian ones but what
is certain is that overall there is a
very broad consensus among the
intelligence services and assessment
teams that are monitoring this war
Russia is still shredding men at full
speed this has been and continues to be
a major problem firstly because it means
that troops without combat experience
are constantly having to come in and
secondly because there comes a point
where it could greatly undermine the
popularity of the war within Russia in
fact this issue is by far what has worn
shyu down the most PR goin's video
accusing him of practically selling out
soldiers because of his incompetence was
in fact devastating To His Image but now
to what extent is shyu to blame for the
poor performance in Ukraine is this
really the cause of his dismissal or is
there some other reason for Putin to
have made this decision and by the way
when we talk about sensitive topics like
Russia every word matters and each media
outlet has its own perspective and
editorial analysis that's why today we
want to introduce ground news a tool
that analyzes hundreds of media outlets
for you allowing you to compare
different perspectives quickly and
easily take a look at this new story
mosco warns it will Target UK military
sites if British weapons are used in
attacks against Russia this has been
covered by more than 60 media Outlets
with very different ideologies thanks to
the graph on the right we can see that
the coverage is distributed almost
evenly from left to right and yes I know
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news work it uses a methodology
combining three Independent News
monitoring organizations the key feature
is that we can compare the different
headlines each outlet uses for a story
understand their perspectives and assess
their veracity for example keev
independent and Politico Europe two
left-leaning news outlets emphasize the
military threat to the UK and Ukraine
after Cameron's comments while rights
leaning sources outside Russia focus
more on the UK Ambassador in Russia and
now the million-dollar question how can
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that said many thanks to ground news for
supporting this video try it out and let
us know what you think and now let's
continue with today's
video shy goo the
culprit it's no secret the invasion of
Ukraine is not going the way Putin
wanted it to I know what you're thinking
there you go visual politic is added
again raging against Russia and okay you
may have a point but what can I say
that's just the way things are it's not
propaganda from one side nor the other
the initial intention of the Kremlin was
to take the neighboring country in a
matter of weeks and that it is clear it
did not succeed those weeks have already
turned into more than two years and
everything indicates a third and who
knows maybe even a fourth and that was
not something that was in the plans on
top of that Putin's government has
almost from the beginning of the war
placed all state resources in shu's hand
hands and the fact is that since shyu
has been defense minister the Russian
military budget has shot up by about 60%
shyu is the minister who has handled the
most money since the fall of the Soviet
Union nevertheless we've all seen the
result terrible and keep in mind this is
probably something Putin himself has
thought about at times don't believe me
well take a look Putin literally turned
his back on his loyal defense minister
on Russian State tv however despite
everything Putin did not dismiss him at
that time and little by little things
were well somehow getting better after
the unexpected Ukrainian resistance the
Russian defense Ministry began to
reorient his strategy and shigu changed
the ship's course the military could
have had a budget of nearly $100 billion
by 2023 according to cpri estimates a
Honeypot that the ministry takes
advantage of to boost the Russian
military industrial complex the Armed
Forces needed more bullets more grenades
more weapons and many vehicles and
logically all these supplies and
equipment had to come mainly from local
industry for cost for agility and also
because of the sanctions the result of
all this effort
well according to the Russian government
the efforts of the ministry led by shyu
enabled the Army to receive 1,500 tanks
2,200 armored combat Vehicles 1,400
missiles and hundreds of thousands of
new artillery units and weapons over the
course of
2023 well at least that's what they say
of course because according to various
analyses these figures could be very
very inflated not to mention the
accounting tricks that apparently passed
off imported weapons and components as
Russian equipment be that as it may what
is certain is that Russian military
equipment increased sharply in 2023 and
that this managed to save the poor
reputation of shyu who had been badly
bruised after the huge Fiasco of the war
and that is not all on top of that under
shu's leadership Russia has quite
successfully managed to Dodge
international sanctions so when push
comes to sh the Russian bear has
continued to by military components and
Supplies on the international market I
think this chart makes it quite clear
here on visual politic we've already
told you how they are doing it they have
done it thanks to a complex network of
shell companies and using Allied or
nearby countries as a kind of frontman
but it goes further than that this sort
of survival economy that was implemented
in 2023 in order to be able to continue
to nurture the military has begun to
Bear certain fruits fruits such as these
Ukraine Warren's Northern front has
significantly worsened as Russia claims
capture of sever Villages by integrating
Elite and conventional forces increasing
the number of troops deployed improving
its defenses and Target detection
capabilities as well as massively
increasing the use of drones Russia has
managed to regain the initiative in
Ukraine and naturally all this has
happened under the leadership of Sergey
shyu as the Minister of Defense yes
things started badly for them but then
at least they have improved so doesn't
it seem a bit odd that he is being
dismissed just now why risk everything
with profile changes at this point in
time well you see this is where the
story takes a 180° turn shyu was most
likely not even pushed aside due to the
Russian military's performance in
Ukraine and you will say let's see Josh
get it straight if it's not because of
corruption not because of Ukraine not
because Putin doesn't like him why on
Earth has one of Russia's great power
Brokers been removed well the key seems
to lie not with shyu but with his
successor and this brings us directly to
another of the major changes taking
place in Russia's Armed Forces listen up
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the military
chanism Andre belov in a nutshell since
2020 and until days before his
appointment as Minister of Defense he
was the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia
of course it's not that he didn't have
very significant influence in the regime
at least not as far as the war was
concerned but then who the heck is this
guy does he have any success as a
military strategist behind him maybe he
comes from military intelligence cold
cold freezing none of those things none
of that bov is an economist yes just as
you heard Putin has swapped a general
for an economist to head the defense
Ministry in the middle of a bloody war
I'm sure you weren't expecting that one
but why profile that in principle we
might think is so alien to the world of
war well this change has a lot to do
precisely with
this Andre belov has conducted several
pieces of economic research on the
collapse of the Soviet regime and the
fall of Soviet industry at the time and
not only that in 2000 he founded the
center for macroeconomic analysis and
shortterm forecasting where he published
a lot of analyses on the Russian
economic situation well all this work
helped him to become a consultant to the
Russian Ministry of economy gaining more
and more
reputation but okay I'm sure right now
many of you are thinking I don't
understand anything what the hell can a
profile of a technical Economist bring
to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and
the ministry of defense well Putin
thinks a lot and this time he might not
be wrong let's see much of bov's work
has focused on the state of Russian
industry and its lack of competitiveness
which is precisely one of the Achilles
heels suffered by the Russian military
industry well actually the entire
National economy in general and that's
where his contribution could be
absolutely crucial especially now that
efforts are being focused on trying to
survive without Western Technologies now
why just now which is not precisely
Russia's worst moment on the front is
there a U-turn to put such a guy at the
head of the
ministry well first surely because Putin
never believed that the war would drag
on and on and second because after the
initial disaster what was most urgent
was to stabilize the front and
reorganize the Army's deployments
defenses and operations it was a job
that necessarily had to be piloted and
supervised by a military officer however
once that goal was achieved then it was
time to enter a new phase preparing the
Russian economy to face a long War
reorganizing Logistics and working
primarily with the military industry and
that's where the economist comes in you
can see the point can't you the point is
that Putin might have understood that
Wars are not one exclusively with
military strategy but also with the
ability to resist distribute and
replenish forces changing the defense
Ministry leadership signals that
Russia's president is preparing for many
more years of war Putin's priority is
war war of attrition is won by economics
and in this he is not wrong what's more
Putin could have an important Advantage
here when it comes to squeezing the
Russian economy to increase military
resources what am I referring to any
ideas exactly that Russia is in practice
a
dictatorship you see Putin doesn't care
at this point what the Russians think
all the shortages and hardships that
ordinary people will go through because
of a war of attrition that could drag on
for several more years and what's more
he is counting on that opinion in the
west to be totally different that as
long as Russia manages to resist the
West will end up getting tired of
Ukraine something that in a way is
already happening the best example is
undoubtedly the United States a country
that yes has just approved a huge Aid
package for Ukraine but nevertheless
spent months with Aid suspended due to
disagreements between Republicans and
Democrats and indeed headlines like this
one are becoming more and more frequent
American public support for assistance
to Ukraine has waned but still
considerable this is true in the United
States but also in Europe over the last
2 years backing for EU actions related
to the war has decreased as compared to
Spring 2022 humanitarian Aid maintains
the highest approval dropping by only 3
PP support for financial and military
aid have decreased by 9 PP and 8 PP
respectively so politically speaking
Putin's strength in winning a war of
attrition may be greater in the long run
and that is probably what explains bov's
appointment even so what lies ahead for
the new minister is no small matter blof
will have to reform the entire military
industry while fighting a tough War of
Attrition it's a bit like serving a
restaurant full of customers while
there's a fire in the kitchen and no
we're not exaggerating check it
out in the last 20 years Russian
military spending has increased almost
fourfold with clear Peaks after the
annexation of Crimea and The Invasion
against Ukraine and make no mistake that
it is very frustrating for Putin to see
huge amounts of money being resped on
weapons equipment and Industry that are
not up to the task now changing that is
precisely the challenge of the new
Minister of
Defense in fact as early as January 2024
balov gave the first hints of what has
ultimately ended up being his new work
earlier this year he promised that the
country would succeed in producing more
than 32,000 drones each year which would
mean tripling Russian drone production
we are talking about a promise that
anyone would find very difficult to
achieve with the sanctions that Russia
is enduring a country that has been
forced to import Iranian drones for use
in Ukraine nevertheless Putin seems to
see bof as a guy capable of ramping up
arms production in the coming
years it turns out the new Minister of
Defense has been described by several
economists as a fan of military
keynesianism and you will say military
keynesianism but what on Earth is that
are you sure you didn't make a mistake
with the visual economic content well I
give you my word no I am referring to
precisely this Bel Lov keenly believes
Innovation happens because the
government invests in Innovation and
that economic growth happens because the
government forces businesses to make
investments belov believes that state
intervention is key to getting the
military industry to embrace Innovation
and improve its production levels and
standards this would enable them to
better Supply the military and even
increase their sales to the rest of the
world which is usually a very important
source of income for Russia and one that
has been in the doldrums lately well in
his view Russian companies are plagued
by corruption bureaucracy and
inefficiency and it is up to the state
to put things in order and let's see
he's not wrong about the companies the
problem is that the state in Russia
doesn't measure up either it's even more
corrupt but that's the challenge ahead
but that's not all bov is also a strong
advocate of Russian technological
sovereignty and that is something he has
advocated since long before the war in
Ukraine began for the new Minister it is
absolutely key to reverse the country's
dependence on North Korean missiles and
Iranian drones as well as to replace all
foreign Technologies in everything to do
with
defense visual politic Community I am
sure that now you understand perfectly
well the beheading of shyu the
appointment of the new Minister and the
changes that are taking place in the
Russian military but of course we are
talking about Russia and that means
doubts many doubts if shu's term as
Minister was plagued by cases of
corruption and influence pedaling this
will probably not change much with the
new one either basically because we're
talking about a structural problem it is
plain and simple how Russia works Works
a country where everything works with
favors and where all favors are usually
bought with money but wait a minute
because it's not just about Ukraine
Putin is probably also thinking much
further ahead Russia's military is
already preparing for its next War top
polish General confirms Russian
preparations for conflict with NATO
Putin not only wants his soldiers to be
able to subdue Ukraine but his obsession
is also that his Armed Forces should be
up to the task of a war with NATO and
that is a huge challenge especially
given the sorry state of Russia's Armed
Forces after more than 2 years of war
that have wiped out much of the best
military equipment available to them the
question is could Andre beluso be the
man to bring moscow's Armed Forces back
up to speed well only time will tell and
of course visual politic will be there
to tell you all about it in the meantime
the questions are for you what do you
think of shu's dismissal as Minister
what are your theories do you think
belov will succeed in meeting Putin's
expectations well leave us your opinions
Below in the comments and let's launch a
debate and very important if you liked
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haven't already done so as always thank
you very much for being there best
regards and see you next time
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