(soft suspenseful music)
(troops yelling in foreign language)
- [Radio Operator] Zero to three, two, five.
- There's a small volcanic island
off the southern coast of Japan called Mageshima.
(slides clicking)
Nobody lives here, but here's footage from January 2023
of construction workers arriving to this island.
Their task is to build a couple of runways on the island
and some storage facilities for ammunition.
The Japanese government has been paying local fishermen
to stay away from this island.
That's because they're turning it into a military base.
The island is being built by Japan,
but one of its main purposes has to do
with the United States.
American fighter jets
and aircraft carriers have had to do their drills
and practices down here on this island,
but now they're able to station at this island,
moving them much closer to this ocean
and to one country in particular.
(tense music)
Mageshima is just one of many islands
that are being loaded up with military hardware,
most of it coming from the United States.
It's part of this chain of militarized islands,
an effort of defense or aggression,
depending on how you look at it.
It's a line that centers on Taiwan,
and it's what one official was referring to
when they said that 2023 is likely to stand
as the most transformative year in US force posture
in this region in a generation.
This line is a symbol
of the rising tensions between global superpowers,
and I wanna show you why this is happening now
and what it means for the future of this conflict.
- This is unlike anything the US Navy has done
since World War II.
- Tensions are rising
in one of the most hotly contested regions on the planet,
the South China Sea.
- [Pilot] Philippine military aircraft,
I'm warning you again.
Leave immediately.
- Hey, I'm gonna pause the story really quick
to tell you about today's sponsor, who is CoPilot,
which is a product
that I actually use almost every day of my life.
CoPilot is a platform where you get paired up
with a fitness coach.
You meet with that fitness coach.
It's a real person.
It's not like an AI.
And that fitness coach talks
to you about your fitness goals,
and then they design a custom fitness plan
for you using their app.
Every day when I do my workout, I just open up the app,
and I hit start workout,
and it guides me through with video demonstrations
and a timer through every one of my exercises.
These are exercises that are literally designed
for me and my goals.
And my goals aren't to, like, get buff.
I'm just trying to like work out
so that I feel strong and feel good in my body,
and that is what my workout is designed to do.
It also pairs up with my watch
so that it cues me on to the next exercise.
Oftentimes I'm like listening to a podcast
or a book or music,
and I can just visually see all of these cues.
It's incredibly convenient and very smooth.
At the end of my workout,
I have the opportunity to then communicate
with my coach and say like,
"Hey, I wanted a little bit more like core workout,"
or like, "The pushups were too intense this time.
Let's tone it down."
And then my coach, Devyn, will actually modify my workout
for the next day so that it fits my feedback.
What I love about CoPilot
is that it's much more about accountability.
Like when I work out,
I know that there's somebody who's gonna check in with me
and ask how the workout went.
CoPilot found that their clients are nine times more likely
to stick to their goals when they have a real-person coach
who is designing a workout for them,
which is like not surprising to me.
Of course, they are.
Accountability and consistency is the hardest thing
with fitness as we all know.
And CoPilot solves that
by pairing you up with a real person.
I've been doing this now for like eight months,
and it's been really, really cool.
I've changed my workout a bunch.
I've like met with my coach
and like reshaped my entire workout based on new goals,
and I just think it's a fantastic platform.
So thank you, CoPilot, for sponsoring the video.
There's a link in my description.
It is go.mycopilot.com/johnny-harris.
Clicking that link helps support this channel,
but it also gives you 14 days of free CoPilot,
access to your own personal fitness coach.
You can test it out
and see if it helps you with accountability and fitness,
which is something we all need to feel good in our bodies.
So thank you, CoPilot, for sponsoring today's video.
Let's dive back into this important story.
Here we go.
Okay, so this document from the US Department of Defense,
this document is called the National Defense Strategy
of the United States of America,
which also includes the Nuclear Posture Review
and Missile Defense Review.
It's basically a report that they release every four years
that gives us an understanding
of what the US military is up to, what they care about.
- [Radio Operator] Zero, three, be advised we have a visual.
- But this year's is more detailed than normal.
The document focuses a lot on China.
- If China threatens our sovereignty,
concerns directly with China.
- The DoD says that China, quote,
"remains our most consequential strategic competitor
for coming decades."
Why?
Because, the Pentagon says, China is bullying its neighbors
to, quote, "reshape the region and the international system
to fit its authoritarian preferences."
Now, remember that the United States,
who spends loads on its military,
has set the rules for our global order,
how we trade, what political systems we favor,
who participates in the system,
and now we see a country that wants to dethrone them
to create a new system based on other values
and other rules.
(energetic electronic music)
And what scares the US military
is that China is rapidly modernizing
and expanding their military.
China's military is growing incredibly fast.
Like they deploy the equivalent
of an entire new British Navy every four years.
Every four years, it's like new British Navy,
like new Royal Navy every four years.
Yeah, they're just growing very quickly.
This report is concerned about China's growing strength
and military footprint.
(troops yelling in foreign language)
- How China is coercing its neighbors,
disregarding ocean boundaries, testing missiles,
bullying fishing vessels in other countries' waters,
building islands and military bases on those islands,
and flying over other countries' airspace
and especially in Taiwan,
the island that China claims as their own
and where the globe gets nearly all
of their advanced microchips,
which is a topic I made an entire video about.
The point is Taiwan is an incredibly important island
for the United States.
All of this together makes China, quote,
"the only country that has the intent
and power to actually challenge the US-led global order
and rewrite global rules and norms,"
something the US has gotten really comfortable doing
over the last 70 years.
So this is why the US considers China
the most consequential strategic competitor
for coming decades, and they've created a plan to respond.
And in their words, "We cannot delay."
They give themselves this 10-year window
to implement some major changes,
and this is what it looks like.
Okay, first things first.
The US military is already very present in Asia.
We've got about 8,000 troops in Guam.
We've got over 100 bases in Japan
with about 21,000 American troops on the mainland
and another 24,000 stationed down here
on the Japanese island of Okinawa.
Go up to South Korea, and you'll find 22,000 US troops.
And then you've got the US Navy
who operates out of this port in Singapore.
This has been the status quo in Asia for decades,
and it has been the way
that the US has ensured security for its allies,
and it's kind of mostly worked
to help secure American interests and deter conflict.
The US has maintained strong alliances in this region
and, frankly, the Pentagon has kind of been distracted
with other things, two wars that happened in the Middle East
over the past 20 years.
- My fellow citizens, my fellow citizens.
- Surrendered at 4:00. - My fellow citizens.
- But as those conflicts wind down and as China militarizes,
the Department of Defense says that this status quo,
all of these troops in Asia, it's not enough.
They talk about this new kind of deterrence,
integrated deterrence,
the only kind of military posture
that will actually keep China at bay.
And this is what it looks like.
The smallest part of the strategy has to do
with American bases.
They're gonna reopen a base in Guam
and move some troops there.
But the majority of this strategy has to do
with American allies in Asia,
allies that are in lockstep with the US's goal
to deter and contain China.
The Pentagon calls partnering
with its allies the center of gravity for this strategy.
So let's start with Japan,
one of the US's closest allies in the region.
Japan is a country that is deeply concerned
about a more powerful China,
with its massive navy and its ambitions to control Taiwan.
And it's very easy to forget that Japan isn't just this.
It's actually all of this.
It extends way down here because of all these islands.
These islands curve nicely all the way down
till they hit Taiwan.
All of these are Japanese islands.
I mean, if you look at Japan's national defense strategy
translated into English,
you will see something that looks strikingly similar
to what the Pentagon released.
They're both really freaked out about China,
and they both are ready to act in lockstep
to deter a more aggressive China in the region.
So it starts up here with that island that we talked about
at the beginning, Mageshima,
this new military base and airstrip
to be used by both Japanese and US militaries.
Further south is Amami Island,
where Japan has recently added long-range missiles
and anti-ship missiles.
Potentially they're gonna add cruise missiles.
These are missiles that they're buying
from the United States.
These are missiles that are definitely
in range of the Taiwan Strait.
Next in the chain is Okinawa,
where the US has a huge presence
of tens of thousands of troops already.
Japan also has military bases here
and is adding even more long-range missiles
and electronic warfare units
for military installations meant to disrupt
and deny communication signals.
On these two islands down here,
they're adding even more long-range missiles,
which could potentially be used
to attack Chinese naval ships and aircraft.
And Japan is placing nearly 600 troops on Ishigaki as well.
And finally you've got this last militarized island
in the chain, Yonaguni.
It's the closest island to Taiwan.
And here Japan is adding more
of those electronic warfare units
which are used to jam communication signals
or to listen in on their communications.
You know, they're right next to China.
Japan is also positioning more troops here.
So this is the first part of our chain,
and when paired with training
that Japan and US troops are doing
to simulate island and amphibious warfare,
it sends a really strong signal to China
that Japan is ready to respond if needed.
This line also serves
as like a physical barrier that any Chinese ship
or submarine would have to pass through
in order to access the Pacific Ocean.
It's a line that Japan can easily control and monitor,
and it also builds a wall of missiles.
Any calculus that China is making
on whether or not to invade Taiwan
or to do anything in the region will have to now factor
in this wall of missiles ready to roll.
Overall, this increased military presence
on this chain of islands gives Japan
and by extension, the United States,
the ability to monitor communications
and troop movements of China,
preparing them to act quickly.
And it also gives them the ability to pre-position troops
and supplies throughout the region,
which is a major logistical advantage.
But all of this comes with a massive price tag.
So, Japan, which is formally a pacifist nation
without like a huge military,
is actually planning to double their defense spending.
They're spending way more
on buying weapons than they ever have before,
and 97% of those weapons are coming from the United States.
The island-chain strategy continues down here
with the Philippines, close to Taiwan
and close to the South China Sea.
The US knows that it needs to bolster its presence here,
but it's not as straightforward as it is in Japan.
The Philippines was a US colony for decades.
It's a very sensitive history.
And even after Filipino independence,
the US maintained a military presence
in the Philippines until like the '90s.
And then they eventually kicked out the US,
as many saw it as just an enduring legacy of US colonialism.
But a more aggressive China has become a major threat
to the Philippines.
Now listen, I'm not gonna go
into like a full South China Sea thing here,
but just know that China claims all of this
as their maritime boundary.
It's literally a line with nine dashes
that some Chinese official in 1948 drew by hand on a map.
This line blasts through the boundaries
that the rest of the world recognizes
as the Filipino territorial waters.
So there's a conflict in the ocean,
and now on a daily basis,
Filipino fishing vessels are harassed
by Chinese military vessels,
who threaten them if they don't leave their waters.
In 2022, China put a temporary stop
to all fishing in the South China Sea,
denying the Philippines' ability
to fish in the West Philippine Sea,
which is rightfully their waters.
But it's crazier than that.
The Chinese Navy is like full-blown
just bullying the Philippines.
They like show up with lasers
to harass and blind Filipino ships.
I mean, let's remember
the Philippines is a much smaller nation than China
and doesn't really have a navy even close to what China has.
So now they're in this impossible decision.
They have to choose between giving up their sovereignty
and fishing rights to their aggressive neighbor, China,
or partnering with their former colonizer,
who also wants to repel China.
And in this case, they chose the latter.
- China has pushed too hard.
It's pushed the Philippines in the South China Sea,
what they call the West Philippine Sea.
- The Philippines is planning to boost its military presence
in the disputed South China Sea.
- It started in 2014, when they allowed the US back in
for the first time in 22 years.
The US presence will technically be in bases
that are owned by the Philippines,
but the US can have troops, build barracks
and other military installations,
and can have pre-positioned supplies there as well.
It's basically like the US has bases there,
but it's like, sh, it's actually the Philippines.
And as part of all of this that we've been talking about,
in late 2022, they expanded their agreement,
giving the US military access to four more bases,
bringing the total number of bases
on the Philippines up to nine.
And look where they selected to put them,
here in the north of the country,
strategically close to Taiwan
and helping fill their gap
in their island chain that they're creating.
This now allows US
to have a military presence really close to Taiwan.
The US trains very closely with their Filipino counterparts,
making them ready to respond very quickly
to an invasion in Taiwan
while also repelling Chinese bullying
of Filipino fishing activity.
Okay, so now the island chain is filling out,
giving the US and its regional partners a solid blockade
to the Pacific,
and it continues all the way down around the South China Sea
because of the US presence in Singapore.
This is a very united front, but it doesn't stop here.
(camera shutter clicks)
The last part of the strategy
is potentially the most significant,
and it has to do with Australia,
a country that is also alarmed
by China's rise in the region.
So there's this military pact
between the US, the UK, and Australia.
It's called AUKUS.
What it means is that these three countries
will work together to create a unified submarine force
that will patrol the Pacific.
First what it means is that the US is giving,
giving, nuclear submarine technology,
its most powerful and advanced weapon, freely to Australia.
Here, here are the designs to our most powerful weapons.
Take them, foreign country.
And then the US and UK will base submarines
out of this port here in Australia.
It's called Perth.
Australian sailors will ride alongside US
and UK sailors during submarine deployments.
They will learn together.
They will work together.
They will share classified intelligence.
What this means
is that there will be a significantly larger number
of submarines patrolling these waters.
And remember, these are nuclear-powered submarines,
which we made a whole video on as well.
These things can be underwater for months.
They can go on these long patrols over to Taiwan
and the South China Sea.
They can close up these key choke points,
plugging holes in their growing line against China.
And crucially, we can be pretty damn certain
that a lot of these submarines
will be carrying nuclear weapons,
adding yet another layer of deterring power
to an already really powerful line of defense.
And if this wasn't enough,
Australia is also building a permanent hangar
for US B-52 bombers up here in the Tindal Airbase
in Northern Australia.
These US bombers carry conventional weapons,
but they also carry nukes.
So now US bombers carrying nuclear weapons
will have a permanent home in Australia.
There's gonna be a lot more military hardware
in the Pacific because of this,
hardware that carries the most powerful
and dangerous weapons we have.
This is a very aggressive signal
to China that the West is ready.
(camera shutter clicks)
So now if you look at the whole thing, this whole chain,
you see how robust this presence is.
This is what that military official meant by transformative.
The military name for this is the first island chain,
and it is at the heart of the US'
and its allies' strategy to counter and contain China.
And it's easy to see that this island chain,
while protecting a lot of different interests
for a lot of different countries, really centers on Taiwan.
A major purpose for all of this militarization,
the missiles, the subs, the airbases, the troops,
is to prepare for conflict in Taiwan.
And this is where we get to the paradox of deterrence.
You prepare to fight so that you don't have to fight.
All of this preparation might be just what is needed
for China to decide that it would be too costly
to invade Taiwan.
But the other side of that paradox
is that all of this looks an awful lot like overt escalation
in a conflict.
If you're China, this chain
of islands is clearly your enemy trying to box you in
to monitor your every move,
a superpower from the other side
of the world flooding your region
with more military hardware to stop your influence.
It would be impossible for this plan to not contribute
to a rising of tensions between the two superpowers.
- All this as the US prepares
for a potential conflict with China.
- How close are we to all-out conflict
between the world's two largest superpowers?
(Chinese minister speaking in foreign language)
- Chinese President Xi Jinping
has already called this a policy
of encirclement and suppression.
And let's be honest, he's right.
Whether you like it or not,
this is containment old-school, Cold War-style containment.
It's hard not to see it when you look at this map,
and the Chinese Foreign Minister said
that it would literally be impossible
for China to not fight back
to take a move that retaliates against this move,
which means that if the US
and its allies aren't careful with all of this,
it may send a signal to China
that now is the time to invade Taiwan
before all of this plan can fully be implemented.
In that sense, this strategy could provoke the very conflict
that it is trying to deter.
(suspenseful music)
Hey, everyone, thanks for watching today's video.
Thanks again to CoPilot for sponsoring the video,
link in my description if you wanna get started,
14 days for free.
I wanted to tell you about a couple things.
Number one, this is a poster,
and it's why all maps are wrong,
and it's a beautiful poster on really nice thick paper
with dozens and dozens of map projections.
If you're a map nerd like me,
this kind of stuff is really fun.
We have LUTs and presets that we use
to color our videos and photos
that we develop with a professional colorist.
And if you are interested in joining our community
on Patreon, it is called The Newsroom.
We publish an extra video there every month
where we show you behind the scenes
of how we do what we do here in the studio.
- We're hot boxing the studio.
- I need more smoke.
- [Crew Member] We're gonna have Johnny sit there.
This is Kyle.
- Oh my God.
- And even though you didn't print out any maps.
- Ah!
I also published my scripts there and a lot of stuff,
but it's really just a way for you
to support what we're trying to do here,
independent journalism on YouTube.
Thank you for being here.
Thank you for watching.
Let me know your thoughts on this video,
and I look forward to a lively debate in the comments.
Have a good day.
Okay.
(light music)