(energetic music)
- We are coming up to the second Sunday in April
and that can only mean one thing.
It is the Hell of the North or Paris-Roubaix.
- I can not believe it has come around so quickly.
One of the best races of the year.
After last weekend, undoubtedly,
one or two classic specialists are gonna be
out to make a mends,
as will we.
Looking to make amends after last week's
frankly woeful showing, in our GCN predictions.
- Yeah we have come to Raphael's Restaurant in Bath
to do our big GCN preview of Paris-Roubaix.
We'll be looking into the course of 2019
and we'll be naming pretty much every rider
just to cover our backs.
Before we get to that part though,
we're gonna take a quick look back at what
happened 12 months ago.
There, Peter Sagan launched a massive attack
with 56 kilometers still remaining,
leaving the rest of the favorites basically
looking at each other and immediately knowing
that they were fighting for second place on the day.
Only they weren't, because Silvan Dillier,
one of the remnants of the early breakaway,
was still able to hang on with Pete Sagan
only to get out-sprinted at the velodrome at the finish.
Third place on the day went to Niki Terpstra,
but Pete Sagan became the first rider in the
rainbow jersey to win at Paris-Roubaix
since Bernard Hinault back in 1981.
Terpstra though, won't be racing this year,
because he's still recovering from concussion
for the Tour of Flanders last week.
(energetic music)
- Oh watching that has already got me super excited,
so without further ado, let us get on to this year's race,
which is actually the 117th addition of Paris-Roubaix.
Starting, as it has done since 1977,
in Compiegne, not Paris.
That's 89 kilometers further south.
The race itself is 257 kilometers long
and it finishes at the velodrome in Roubaix.
- [Daniel] Or, the velodrome André-Pétrieux.
- [Simon] Bless you, but it's--
- Thank you, if you give it's proper name.
Anyway, win this race and you will elevate yourself
to the status of cycling legend or god,
but perhaps even more importantly,
you're never gonna have to buy a beer again
in the region if you win Paris-Roubaix.
- Now that might need some explanation,
because to the casual observer, it might not look that hard
given that there's hardly any climbing,
but it is the pavé, or the cobblestones,
that makes this race as brutal as it is,
and they can't be compared to anything else really.
On the scale of cobblestone severity,
these are off the scale.
I mean, compared to Flanders last week,
they're so much harder.
- They are so much harder.
You have to go and ride them to actually believe
how hard they are, as I did last year
and even though I'd rode them before
I was thinking these are unbelievable!
Anyway, in total, there are 54.5 kilometers
of cobbles this year.
Although, interestingly the first five star section
of the race, the Troueé d'Arenberg,
or the Forest of Arenberg,
is actually 100 meters shorter than it used to be.
It is obviously exactly the same length as it's always been,
but ASO recently found out that it's 100 meters
shorter than they thought it was.
Interesting that modern measuring technology
can show you these details.
- Frankly, I hope they stop measuring stuff Dan,
just in case we find out that other iconic cycling
roads are actually not as hard as we thought they were.
Anyway, Arenberg is one of 29 cobblestone sectors
that feature in this year's race.
The first one is at Troisvilles
and it comes after 96.5 kilometers of racing.
Now, in other races, you would be used to seeing
the climbs categorized depending on their severity
and in Paris-Roubaix, they same is true of cobblestones.
The organizers rate them from one to five,
depending on how long they are
and how rough the cobbles are.
- That first one at Troisvilles is rated as three stars,
as is the second one and they've changed the name
of that one actually.
Formally known as Briastre, this year it will known
as the pavé sector Michael Goolaerts
and that of course, after he sadly lost his life
at that very sector this time last year.
So a really nice tribute there from ASO.
They've also erected a monument at the side
of the road which you'll be able to see.
- Now, as per usual, we would expect a breakaway
to go relatively early in the race,
so that then the favorites can stay out of trouble
and save their energy back in the plateau.
- Although Si, of all of the one day monument,
in fact all one day races of the year,
I would say that it's Paris-Roubaix that offers
probably the most benefit to being in that
early break, doesn't it?
- Well indeed, Silvan Dillier, as mentioned,
finished second in last years race having
been in that early breakaway.
The reason being, is that although he'll have to spend
a little bit more time in the wind,
he would've had to have expended significantly
less energy by not fighting for position
at the beginning of every single cobblestone sector,
and we saw that to great effect, didn't we,
in 2016, Matt Hayman's legendary victory.
He too, would have been part of that early breakaway.
Although, you gotta say, on that day it wasn't
a particularly early break 'cause it took 100 k's to go.
- No, well that is a byproduct of the fact
that there are more riders looking to get into
that early breakaway and stronger riders too,
so we can see a hell of a lot of attacking
before one is finally allowed to go up the road.
- Yeah, it's one race where you probably wanna see
every single kilometer don't you?
Just in case!
Anyway, back to the course now and the first
four star sector of cobbles comes at Quiévy
after 111.5 kilometers.
That's swiftly followed by Saint-Python,
which actually makes it's return to the race this year.
Then that too is swiftly followed by an all new sector.
This time Saint-Vaast.
- Great French accent mate. - Merci!
- That last one that's just been put in,
I don't think, from my research, is particularly hard,
as opposed to the Forest of Arenberg which
comes at 96.5 kilometers go.
As mentioned, that's the first five star sector
of the race each year.
I don't know how to describe it.
I've ridden it a few times and yet, when I went back
last year, I couldn't believe how hard it was,
and that was arriving at 30 k's per hour.
I was quite frightened.
I can't imagine what it's like to arrive in the
Paris-Roubaix bunch at about 60 kilometers per hour.
That begs belief.
- Yeah, good job your legs won't let you go any faster
than 30 k's an hour these days.
It's perhaps could be described a little bit like
in medieval times, someone drove a cart full of rocks
through a forest and unfortunately the back
of the cart was open and those rocks just fell out
and then when they got to the end of it,
they though check it out, we made a road!
- Yeah, that'll do.
- [Simon] And then that's what we've go now,
what 800 years later.
- BY the end of the Forest of Arenberg,
you can expect most of the pre-race favorites
to be somewhere towards the front.
If they haven't succumbed to some sort of bad luck
and if they have, and they've fortunately managed
to get back on their bikes, they haven't got long
to ready themselves for the next sector,
because just four kilometers separates the end
of the Arenberg from the start of the next one,
after which they start to come thick and fast.
- They do indeed.
Fast forward a little bit to the next five star sector.
That's Mons-en-Pevéle and it comes after 208.5 kilometers,
so less than 50 k's to go to the finish remember.
Then the third and final five star sector
is the Carrefour de l'Arbre which is just 17 k
from the finish.
Now, this isn't so much a launch pad to victory is it?
But it certainly the place where we see those do or die
efforts and it's my highlight of the whole race I think.
After that, three more sectors.
Gruson, Hem and then the kind of ceremonial 300 meters
of like, fake pavé in Roubaix itself
before a lap and a half of that famous velodrome.
- Which seems like it should be the most simplest
part of the race, couple of laps
of the velodrome doesn't it?
But actually, it can be quite tricky if you
haven't got a background in track pedigree.
- Poor Fabian Cancellara fell off on it didn't he?
- [Daniel] He did! On his celebratory--
- [Simon] Retirement lap.
- [Daniel Yes.
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- Let's get on to contenders then shall we?
Starting with, Peter Sagan?
- Well we're going to have to because,
somewhat amazingly, he is the bookies favorite
to win the race this coming--
and I say somewhat amazingly
because he's definitely not looked himself
to me over the cobbled classic season,
barring perhaps Gent-Wevelgem,
but Sunday at Flanders in particular,
he looked to not, looked a notch shall I say,
below where'd he'd normally be at.
That said, the odds that you can get for him are four to one
whereas the next three favorites are all 12 to one.
Quite a difference.
- Yeah.
Can I guess who they are?
- Go on.
- Van Avermaet.
- [Daniel] Yes.
- Yeah, another form winner, John Degenkolb?
- [Daniel] Yep, you got all three winners actually there,
those are the only three form winners on the start,
are Sagan, Van Avermaet and Degenkolb.
- Okay.
On current form, you've got to say Kristoff.
- [Daniel] Yes! Nailed it!
You've been doing your research.
- Oh not research, just innate.
- Yeah, I thought that might be the case.
Anyway, of all the people that we just mentioned,
I have to say that Alexander Kristoff poses
the biggest threat for Sunday's win.
Interestingly, he's never finished better than ninth
at Roubaix before, which I say is interesting,
because I'd say of all the classics,
it's this one that suits him the best,
but he's been in incredible form hasn't he?
Won Gent-Wevelgem,
then won the sprint for third place
at Flanders last Sunday.
- Yeah, it'd be good to see him do well here wouldn't it?
Now, incredibly, we have got four predictions in
to a cobble classics preview show and we've yet to mention
anyone from Deceuninck- Quick Step.
Perhaps 'cause they were, well slightly off form
last weekend, only managing to salvage second place
at the Tour of Flanders would you believe?
Their saving grace being the young Dane, Kasper Asgreen,
who, to be fair, it was absolutely phenomenal wasn't it?
Like, putting in so much work on the front
and still managing to get away from that group of favorites
in the finale to finish second.
Fantastic!
His team mates at Roubaix are gonna be
Stybar, who you'd think probably this race is made for,
but he maybe wasn't quite showing the form
that we'd expect at Flanders.
Gilbert, of course, and Lampaert,
Bob Jungels is not gonna be on the start line,
he's siting fatigue, so he's resting up,
and then Asgreen himself.
- Yes, a strong line up, no doubt about that,
but I wouldn't put them out as clear favorites
for the race this year.
Although, that said, I don't think I'd have
any single rider as a clear favorite.
- Nope?
- We'll rattle of some more to save our backsides again.
We've got the cyclist prodigy that is Wout Van Aert
on the start line for Jumbo Visma.
His placing last year was 13th in his debut
and he'll be looking to improve on that of course
and you wouldn't put that past him given
how he's looked so far this year,
and he'll have ample back up from his team
including a very in form Danny Van Poppel.
- That's right.
EF, education first.
Gotta name them haven't they?
Alberto Bettiol after last week's incredible win
at Flanders, he is not gonna be on the start line,
he's gonna be resting up for Amstel--
- But we want to mention his name in the
preview this week anyway.
- That's right, Bettiol will not be on the start line.
To be fair, knowing our predictions he probably
be a late starter.
- Well at least we've mentioned him if he is.
- Good point.
If Bettiol, if he takes the start line,
he's definitely a career favorite.
Ah no, more so Sep Vanmarcke from EF.
Ah he did some amazing work for Bettiol
at Flanders, didn't he?
I mean, given he's not been on his bike all that much
through injury. - Yeah, he did well.
- He was competitive late into the race
and he's got prior form at Roupaix,
finishing second before.
Twice he's finished fourth
and he's got a sixth as well on his palmares.
- He's not the only one on the team with
some previous at this race either.
Sebastian Langeveld was third a couple of years ago.
- [Simon] And he was looking good at Flanders.
- [Daniel] He was and then there's Taylor Phinney
who's been specifically targeting this race.
He was eighth last year and as you said,
they're gonna be on a high after last Sunday,
so watch out for EF Education First.
- From high to Sky.
Now, Luke Rowe, Ian Stannard and Dylan van Baarle
all look to be going well.
Ably backed up you'd think by Gianni Moscon.
They had a Flanders to forget quite frankly.
Actually if we're being really frank,
they've had a cobbled classic season to forget haven't they?
But anyway, Sunday is their last chance
and I wouldn't write then off.
- No, they've actually got some new tech
at their disposal on Sunday in Paris-Roubaix.
We've got an exclusive--
Well we've got, I don't know if it's exclusive or not,
but we've got a video about that coming up on GCN,
so stay tuned for that.
- Just lower the expectation down.
- Trek-Segafredo have got a few cards to play.
We've already mentioned former winner John Degenkolb,
but they've got Edward Theuns as well as
Mads Pedersen and Jasper Stuyven at their disposal too.
AG2R will be looking to Oliver Naesen to
be at the helm for their team,
but let's not forget Dillier who was second last year.
Even Stijn Vandenbergh actually, who close.
A very good result a few years back,
before he was taken out by a spectator.
- That's right.
Oh that was awful wasn't it?
Then, who else we got?
Lotto-Soudal's Tiesj Benoot.
Ah, you'd have to say Nils Politt--
- Tiesj.
I've been told off for that before.
- Tiesj?
- Yeah, bless you.
- Nils Politt fifth at Flanders last weekend.
That was a ride, wasn't it?
And then, according to pro cycling stats,
starting for the first time ever at Paris-Roubaix,
Matej Mohoric and Sonny Colbrelli.
That's interesting isn't it?
- Interesting one about Colbrelli,
because he normally targets Amstel Gold,
so still Paris-Roubaix, but we'll wait and see,
however he does start on Sunday.
- And not a decent on the entire parcour for Matej Mohoric.
- [Daniel] No, true.
It's gonna be hard for him to get into his
normal tuck position isn't it?
- I wouldn't wanna see him at Arenberg doing that.
- No.
Anyway, is there anyone else we--
We've not mentioned quite a few people Si.
I'm gonna start--
- Let's not leave anything to chance Dan.
We've got time on our side.
- Yes.
- So make yourselves comfortable.
- Right, number 152 Damien Gaudin.
- Yeah, good shout.
- Number 153 Romain Cardis. - Oh yeah.
- 154 Pim Ligthart.
- He's a outside bet.
- 155 Alexandre Pichot.
(easy jazz music)
Number 212 Dimitri Claeys, 213
Hugo Hofstetter - Yeah, outside bet.
- 214 Damien Touze
(easy jazz music)
And then the final rider on the start list,
the Dutchman Bram Welten of team Arkéa Samsic.
- They we go, well done mate.
(glasses clink) - Cheers.
- Bases well covered.
Now, before we get on to predictions,
we need to factor in one last thing don't we?
The weather.
What is the forecast doing?
- I've looked at a long term forecast,
we're recording this on Tuesday
and it says it's gonna be sunny and dry again
for the umpteenth time in a row.
Last wet one was in 2001 when Servais Knaven won,
and I for one am quite relieved about that forecast
because I just think, that if we get the wet
and muddy Roubaix that so many people are looking for,
it could be career ending for a couple of riders
because those cobbles are just so dangerous even in dry.
- It's an interesting one isn't it?
I totally agree with you and now we've gone so long
without a wet Roubaix, I'm kind of,
you know, the anticipation's got so much,
I too am kind of shying away from it,
but there is a part of me that thinks that maybe
it's the riders responsibility to look after themselves.
If you know that that pavé is gonna be slippery
as the eels, then you just have to factor in
and slow down accordingly don't you?
Rather than maybe just going in at 60 k an hour--
- Yeah, well I am of the opinion that riders need
protecting from themselves sometimes,
because all you're thinking about is getting results,
doing your job for you team
and often safety
of yourself doesn't come into the equation.
- But surely you're not doing a job for the team
if you stack it on a wet, slippery corner.
- I don't wanna fallout about this mate,
should we get on to predictions?
- Yeah, that's a safe bet.
(energetic music)
- I'm feeling the pressure of the predictions this week Si,
after last weeks.
- To be fair mate, there's no pressure on us.
I don't think anyone expects anything.
- No, well it's gonna get better isn't it than last week?
Hopefully.
Ah right, my prediction for the win on Sunday.
I'm gonna go a bit left field actually for this one.
It is Lotto-Soudal's Jens Keukeleire.
- We haven't even mentioned him yet.
What's that about?
- That's partly why I've chosen him.
I did remember that we'd forgotten to
mention Jens Keukeleire,
but actually if you look back through his results
over the last few weeks over the cobbles,
he's been incredibly consistent.
I just think he might pull off a surprise on Sunday.
- Yeah?
- Who are you going for?
- This is heart not head.
Wout Van Aert.
I think he's--this might be a race too far for him
given he's an entire cross season
and he's been so good for the spring,
but wouldn't it be amazing.
I mean I love seeing cyclo-cross racers
smashin' it on the road
and he does look at home on the cobbles.
- I think it'd be a great story if he won.
- It would!
- I don't think that there's anyone that
would not like to see Wout Van Aert win
to be perfectly honest.
Whilst on the subject though of cyclo-cross stars,
we should say, that Mathieu van der Poel
isn't going to be racing Paris-Roubaix.
When he said that he was going to do a lot of
road races in the spring, he said his targets
were Flanders and then Amstel Gold,
which is of course his home classic,
so he won't be on the start line on Sunday.
- It's a shame.
- It is a shame, but what do you do when
you can win every single race?
You gotta skip something haven't you?
- I dunno mate, I've never had that problem, have you?
- No, neither have I,
but anyway, in the interest of safety in numbers,
we thought we'd ask the other presenters what
their predictions for Sunday were.
- I've come to the Arenberg trench to give my prediction.
There's Katusha doing some recon
and I'm gonna say John Degenkolb
because I think there's a lot of closely
matched riders this year and I think it's gonna
be a diminished bunch at the end
and I think he can be in there,
at which point, he's got an amazing sprint.
I think he can do it.
Plus, he's a past winner.
- Maya, who is your favorite for Paris-Roubaix?
- I think Greg Van Avermaet is gonna win, for you Jojo?
- For me, Alexander Kristoff.
- My prediction for the Paris-Roubaix winner this year?
Well, it's gotta be Greg Van Av--
No, I think I'm gonna go for Sagan.
I'm gonna go for Peter Sagan.
- Well one things almost certain Dan,
we can't lose with that line up of predictions surely.
- Well, we can.
We'll wait and see on Sunday.
- Yeah.
Alright, now, a special treat if you live in Canada
and the USA, on Sunday, you can get half an hour
of race highlights with Lloyd-y and Juan Antonio Flecha
as our special guest over on GCN Racing's Facebook page.
How cool is that?
- It is cool, yeah.
We're also hoping to have input from Magnus Bäckstedt
if his internet connection in the Netherlands,
where his daughter's racing, is strong enough.
Who's of course won Paris-Roubaix in the past,
so it could be quite the line up.
- Absolutely.
- He and Juan Antonio.
- That's it and don't forget as well,
if you're in Europe, that Euro Sports will have
the race live and you should definitely,
definitely tune in.
As we said, it's the one race isn't it, to watch
and savor every kilometer.
- Yeah and if you can't watch every kilometer,
make sure you tune in from 96 k's to go
where the Arenberg forest really starts to kick things off.
Alight, well we hope you have enjoyed our
preview of Prais-Roubaix this year.
If you have, give it a thumbs up which you'll
find just down below.
I never know exactly how to say that.
If you'd like more Paris-Roubaix content though,
Si, a couple of years ago looked into what the fastest
bike was over the Carrefour de l'Arbre course
and the results were quite surprising weren't they?
- They were indeed yeah, make sure you check that one out.