This is an F-16 fighter jet.
Since the 1970s, it's been a cornerstone
of the US Air Force.
Now the US allows all these militaries to also have F-16s.
And since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022...
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been begging for them.
“Zelenskyy has been doubling down on his request for...”
“...NATO jets...”
“...and they really are pleas for fighter jets.”
But for Ukraine, the US hasn't been as generous.
“You don't think he needs F-16s now?”
“No, He doesn't need F-16s now.”
And that might be surprising...
because the US has already given nearly $47 billion
in military aid to Ukraine over the past year.
That's a lot of weapons.
Far more than it gave even some of its closest allies in 2020...
and more than four times
what it gave Afghanistan's army at the height of the US-led war there.
This is a historic number that you would see
typically the US military give to another country over decades.
The U.S. refusing to send F-16s
is a choice worth understanding...
because the weapons that the US has and hasn't chosen to send Ukraine
and when they've sent them
have helped shape each phase of this war.
So what has the US been giving to Ukraine
and why?
Back in 2014
Russia took over Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine
with the help of Ukrainian separatist fighters.
In 2014, ragtag wouldn't even describe
the state of the Ukrainian armed forces.
This is Jack Detsch — Foreign Policy’s US national security reporter.
They'd been gutted by years of neglect.
A lot of the troops didn't have uniforms.
Some of them didn't have hot food.
Ukraine's leaders asked the US for help
but President Barack Obama
only sent protective gear and supplies, not weapons.
In 2018, President Donald trump agreed
to send a limited number of anti-tank missiles called Javelins.
But the Ukrainian army was still woefully unprepared
if Russia decided to escalate the conflict...
which it did.
In 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Russian jets and missiles
were doing immense damage from the air...
and Russian tanks were pushing Ukraine's troops backwards.
Ukraine again asked the US for help.
From the beginning of the war
the Ukrainians wanted a lot of the things
that you see on the menu right now.
They wanted F-16s.
They wanted main battle tanks.
They wanted this stuff from the get-go.
President Joe Biden agreed to send a large package of weapons
but it mainly included the smaller
and relatively unsophisticated kinds.
The US sent more javelins, plus ammunition, guns
and even some anti-aircraft missiles called Stingers.
And many US allies sent similar types of weapons.
Germany sent 1000 anti-tank missiles and 500 stingers.
Belgium sent 2000 machine guns.
But no one sent their advanced battle tanks or fighter jets.
The main question in the beginning of the war
was not just what the US was going to send.
I mean, the question was like, are these guys going to fight?
Certainly that's been a resounding yes.
Ukraine's soldiers used anti-aircraft missiles
to prevent Russian aircraft from controlling the skies.
And they used the guns, ammo, and anti-tank weapons
to halt Russia's progress.
Like in this video, which shows Ukrainian soldiers
destroying dozens of Russian tanks approaching Kiev.
But even though the Ukrainians were using these weapons well
the US hesitated to send it more advanced equipment.
So the US
has been concerned at almost every step about the potential
for Russia escalating the conflict.
The US worried that Ukraine might use
some of these advanced weapons
like fighter jets or long-range missiles to strike inside Russia
sparking an escalation.
This concern would come to define how the US supplied Ukraine.
In the spring of 2022, the war entered its second phase.
Russia and Ukraine's armies weren't moving as much anymore
and instead began pounding each other with artillery.
Russia was firing a staggering 60,000 rounds a day...
while Ukraine could only manage to fire around 6,000.
And it was quickly running low.
But the US was still hesitating
to expand the scope of its support.
They're looking at what's
kind of on the Christmas wish list
and deciding what's actually prudent to give.
Finally, in April 2022
the US agreed to send Ukraine its own artillery.
And like in the first phase of the war
a number of allies then sent their own artillery...
even though some had wanted to do it earlier.
You sort of saw folks in Europe wanting the US to lead
but sometimes the US still very much deep in deliberation mode.
The most important weapon the US sent were called HIMARS...
powerful rocket launchers that could hit targets
as far as 80 kilometers.
They weren't powerful enough to strike inside Russia
but they did enable Ukraine to hit Russian supply depots
and command posts far behind its front lines...
which forced the Russians to move them back
weakening its troops at the front.
That's how Ukraine captured the Kharkiv region
in September and the major city of Kherson in November.
And by then, a new phase was beginning.
In winter 2023, both sides were planning new attacks.
Russia was gearing up
to push further into the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
But Ukraine also wanted to take back territory...
particularly in the south.
In order to do this
Ukraine would need to move troops quickly
which requires armored vehicles like tanks...
something it had been asking for for months.
Some countries had sent older models of tanks...
but just like with artillery, the US waited.
They wanted the Germans to act first
by sending Leopard battle tanks.
The Germans...
were waiting for the United States
to give them some political top cover here.
A little bit of a game of chicken.
Finally, in January 2023
the UK and then the US agreed to send their advanced tanks...
prompting Germany and several allies to follow
with their best battle tanks.
Just like with anti-tank missiles and HIMARS before
the US and its allies were hoping that
these tanks can push Ukraine to win
some decisive victories in this phase...
which is where we are now.
If the Ukrainians kind of can't turn the tide
turn the balance right now
it's going to be tricky
to see how this doesn't go into an extended stalemate.
That's why Ukraine is still asking for fighter jets.
F-16s could protect Ukraine's tanks from Russian aircraft...
making their attack much more powerful.
Ukraine has also been asking the US
for a long range missiles called ATACMS
which it could use to strike Russian positions as far as 300 kilometers behind their lines.
Already, a few allies are in favor of sending these weapons.
But as of this video
the US is hesitating over familiar concerns.
Questions about their readiness for training on those.
Also, of course, you know, just the question again...
how far are the Ukrainians going to fire these things?
So far, none of the decisions to send any of these weapons
has inspired Russia to escalate.
And in March, Poland and Slovakia
agreed to send some of their older fighter jets
making the eventual approval of F-16s
or long range missiles more of a possibility.
But after giving Ukraine over $46 billion in military aid
public opinion in the US is changing.
A recent Pew Research poll showed
the proportion of people who believe the US has sent too much aid to Ukraine has grown
particularly on the right.
Biden, facing a lot of pressure
not only within his party, but, of course
from Republican rivals getting ready for the 2024 debate stage.
That's going to make it much more difficult for President Biden
to sustain this clip.
And even if Biden maintains popular support to send weapons
he might not have enough.
A recent analysis found that certain supplies
may be approaching the minimal level
that the US requires for its own war planning.
It's why the US is now focusing on ways
to increase production of weapons at home
in allied countries and in Ukraine.
But just building those plants could take years.
One year of US and allied support
has helped transform the Ukrainian army
into a formidable force
whose soldiers have repeatedly held
its ground against a much larger Russian army.
But with both the battlefield and US politics changing
the questions now are how well is Ukraine going to fight
with what they have
and how much more US help can they count on?
Thanks for watching this episode of Vox Atlas.
Vox has been covering the war in Ukraine since it began
with in-depth explainers and analysis.
You can find all our coverage of the war at Vox.com/Ukraine.