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The Turkish GP was a very strange one indeed, and one of the strategic talking points was
Hamilton trying to hang on to his original set of intermediate tyres to maintain a podium position
versus the team wanting to pit him for fresh ones to give him better performance.
Ultimately, he somewhat reluctantly pitted with eight laps to go, immediately losing
two positions and then struggled to get any meaningful speed out of the new tyres.
So was it foolish to pit when he did? Did Merc get it wrong? Would the rubber have lasted?
After all, Ocon made it through the whole race on a single set of tyres. Sort of.
It was particularly interesting watching the reaction in real time. While Hamilton
was openly frustrated, people on the ol’ twitters lambasted the decision by Mercedes
as staying out was ‘obviously’ the better call. Why are these boffins listening to the cold,
disconnected 1s and 0s of their computers when they could see reality in front of their faces
and a seven-times world champion was tell them directly that it was best to stay out?
It was common sense! It was obvious! Merc needed
to look up from their laptop screens and see what was really happening.
But… it’s not that simple. It’s easy to distrust data analysis and algorithms as they seem so
disconnected and intangible. They don’t always give you the obvious throughline to their outputs.
Common sense seems so much more in line with the real world because it’s very much about seeing A
and reasoning B. A to B logic. You get it. Hardcore data analysis is often looking at A, B,
C, D and E, shoving them into a mystery box and punching out… “K”? Where did K come from?
You need to pull the mystery box apart and look inside. And also have a degree in mystery boxes
from mystery box university. And who has that? I mean, look, I’ve made a video on why a lot
of the AWS sponsored data graphics on the TV don’t really work because they aren’t
immediately clear to the viewer. They are opaque and intangible. Just numbers from… somewhere.
It’s not immediately understandable. There’s no fluidity between the information and the viewer.
But that doesn’t mean it’s wrong or without meaning to someone. And if you’re a data analyst,
that kind of data output from number crunching can be incredibly meaningful and the king ot
thing you make for yourself all weekend. It can help you make crucial decisions based on
probabilities chewed out from actual information. In fact, data analysis in F1 is so powerful
that I’ve previously argued it’s detrimental to the sport itself.
F1 teams gather and analyse so much data that I think they know
too much about the race before it’s even run. They know how each compound of tyre will behave
over its life, under different temperatures and fuel loads, how the all the parts of their car and
their rivals’ will evolve over the 60-ish laps. They are much less ‘feeling it out’ between the
driver and engineer in the moment and in the debriefs and a lot more
‘seeing what the computer has to say based on the terabytes we’ve been feeding it’.
It takes away from some of the spontaneity of racecraft, in my opinion. And it’s also
frustrating for a driver when, from the cockpit, everything feels manageable and that a fith can
be fought, but a bit of software says, ‘nah, mate, you’re going to fall flat
on your face within ten minutes, trust me’ It also feels much easier to be in audience,
on twitter or in front of the TV, without all the data, and make big statements about
the right calls on strategy and racecraft. I mean, that’s half the fun of watching sports,
isn’t it? Armchair management. We all do it. Doesn’t mean we’re right. But it feels good.
But a race is a product of a long chain of decisions. Once a decision has been made, you
have to follow it through to the next decisions. You can’t go back and ponder ‘What If…?’,
you can merely speculate after the fact, to various degrees of accuracy.
So, on Lap 50, Hamilton pitted for new intermediate tyres. A decision which…
seemed to do him little favour. But let’s go back a bit. Let’s follow the decision
chain through to that moment. The Turkish Grand Prix was
weird. It was a wet but drying track. Toto Wolff told Sky before the start
that the track was absolutely intermediate tyre conditions but he expected the tyres
to be torn to shreds within a few laps as the dry line was driven into the tarmac.
The intermediates are a very versatile tyre - as they are designed to be.
They bridge the gap between a damp track and a wet track, but will still
function on a dry line, albeit worse than any slick will, once it gets dry enough.
Because the inters have grooves, the tread’s footprint exists in blocks:
little islands of rubber that meet the tarmac and allow water to channel through the gaps.
As such, these blocks of tread flex more than the solid, contiguous tread of a slick tyre
and this stretching of the rubber heats up the tread more readily.
This is normally fine as the water also helps cool the rubber so they are designed
to live in this equilibrium of internally heating rubber and cooling wet conditions.
But with a sufficiently dry line, the tread can easily overheat,
making the tread fragile and causing the tyres to degrade and - as Toto put it - get torn apart.
But, as I said, the Turkish Grand Prix was weird.
It was a drying track… but it was a drying track for basically the whole race.
It stayed in a constant state of in between. An edging, tantric kind of a race, never
fully crossing over to dry, but always promising to. Any moment now.
So the drivers waited. And held onto their inters, waiting for the moment to cross to
slicks. It would feel foolish to change to new intermediate tyres only for the track to dry
out a few laps later and force an extra stop. Alonso was the first to blink on lap 32. He
switched onto new inters rather than faff any longer waiting for a dry crossover.
His lap times before and after his pit stop were functionally identical,
but he became a good point of reference for other strategists. New inters - still working fine.
At the same time, Hamilton had closed on Perez, having made his way up to 5th place
from his starting spot of 11th with pace that looked, frankly, on something of another level
to almost every car around him. Mercedes were easily the best car around this track.
At the time Hamilton caught Perez - around lap 29/30, Verstappen was fifteen seconds
up the road, but Hamilton spent a good five laps in an unsuccessful battle with Perez
and falls to about 22 seconds behind Verstappen. This means Verstappen is able to pit easily on
lap 36 and emerge a few seconds ahead of Hamilton but with lovely fresh rubber.
So here we have a first opportunity gone. Had Hamilton been able to pass Perez early
on in the battle he’d have been able to easily keep himself in this pit delta
to Verstappen so Verstappen would either risk staying out on old tyres for longer
or take the pit stop but lose position to Hamilton.
But as it was, Hamilton wasn’t able to play with this at all and any hope of interfering
with Max’s race seemed out the window. OK so now maybe Hamilton’s next best move is
to undercut Perez - get into the pits and switch to new inters first and try and gain a position
with some exceptional outlap work on fresh rubber. But that goes out the window immediately as Perez
stops just one lap after Verstappen. There’s no sneaky advantage to be gained by matching Sergio
stop-for-stop for Hamilton stays out even longer. Mercedes are already back-footing it at this
point. The race isn’t turning in their favour so they are now trying to win by
outdancing their rivals through strategy rather than beating them on track.
Which is an odd decision considering their car was demonstrably faster than everyone else.
Maybe Hamilton should have stopped with Perez and just used the new rubber to go full beans
and overtake him on outright pace. It looked very possible. But that was another road not taken.
The one good thing Mercedes had left in their arsenal was Charles Leclerc. Bottas pitted on
lap 37 (just as Perez had) and ceded the lead to Leclerc who had yet to stop. It was at this point
that we began to wonder if Mercedes, in playing safe, had given up the victory as will as the
lead. Staying out on the old set seemed… possible. Last year, drivers did incredibly long stints on
intermediate tyres as the track dried at about the same rate as the tread wore away
on the intermediate tyres. So as the track became suitable for dries, the rubber on the
tyres’ surface was basically slick anyway. And the track was almost doing the same this year.
But whatever happened, Mercedes could watch Charles’s lap times as a bit of extra information
on what holding on would even look like. And… it wasn’t great.
Leclerc held on for a while in the 1:34s but then drops into the 1:35s and 36s.
Meanwhile Bottas and Verstappen behind are doing solid 33s and 34s and catch him easily on Lap 46
On lap 41, a little earlier, Mercedes call Hamilton in to box as they start
to see the pace of those on new tyres versus those hanging on. After all,
they might as well get as long as possible on the new tyres if the gap between new and old is
looking to be significant. Let’s get ahead of that crossover window where the olds drop off.
Hamilton, though, declines to come in. He’s feeling good on his tyres at the
moment and has reasonable track position. But Mercedes are now looking at the bigger picture.
Perez is fifteen seconds behind him and the only car he would lose track position to
if he pitted. Gasly is 27 seconds back but with the pace of the new tyres will also be
a threat to his pit delta should they need to pit. If they’re going to pit, it’s better to
do it now and fight on track in the remaining laps than risk Gasly driving right into his pit
window and putting more positions on the line. But they give Hamilton more time to consider it.
Lewis is still looking at a potentially dry track coming his way. If they can hold on long enough,
he can skip the second set of inters completely and go straight to slicks, saving a whole pitstop.
But he has to wait. Vettel gambled hard on switching to slicks on lap 38 and had no pace.
It threw his entire race in the bin, instantly. But as Leclerc becomes a sitting duck,
losing the lead and then pitting to promote Hamilton to third,
the temptation becomes even stronger to hold position and wait - he’s now in a podium position.
At this point, Mercedes are unsure if the tyres will last to the end at all. It seems
very unlikely and the only reason they don’t force the point harder is at Lewis’s insistence
he can make it work. His confidence drives a lot of this waiting period.
But by lap 50, it becomes clear to Mercedes, based on the data,
that Hamilton’s tyres are dropping off and will quickly fall way beyond a competitive state.
If he pits now, he’ll lose position to Leclerc and Perez but be able to push on new tyres.
But if he waits any longer to pit, Gasly will close up the gap and he’ll end up
losing three positions. So now is the moment. If he hangs it out, he’ll very likely lose
position to at least two cars anyway as they’ll catch him and pass him incredibly quickly.
And this could well end up being a Norris in Russia situation where the driver feels
fine and wants to fight in the moment but can’t see two laps ahead when they’ll be
on entirely the wrong tyres and have literally nothing left to fight with.
So what’s happened at this point, by taking decisions early on to wait,
by not being able to pass Perez, Mercedes and Hamilton have squeezed themselves into a tactical
corner. Every possible decision leads to positions lost and potential points being thrown away.
And, when Hamilton does finally pit on lap 50 - which was almost certainly the best possible
decision at that moment in time - he can’t even fight properly as the inters go through a 6, 7,
8 lap graining phrase as the semi-dry track wreaks havoc on the rubber.
His pace is hampered and Hamilton is frustrated, seeing track positions given
up when he could have stayed out to fight. But it wasn’t a stupid decision to pit.
Hamilton staying out to defend would have been… tricky. Sure, Perez and Leclerc would
have actually had to pass him on track, but would Hamilton have had any tools at all to defend?
Let’s look at Ocon - the only driver who actually went the whole race without pitting.
Now in theory, he proved it was possible to do it.
But, in fact, Ocon did one less lap than the leaders as he was, himself, lapped. And his tyres
were such a wreck that Pirelli were almost certain they would have failed given another lap or so.
And - crucially - Ocon wasn’t fighting hard for position. He paced himself to do a single stint
and - looking at his laptimes - he was going at an incredibly poor pace compared to basically
every other car - particularly in the final ten laps, when Hamilton wanted to stay out.
Ocon was doing 36s and 37s when even Mick Schumacher was doing 35s. Hamilton would likely
have been on tip toes, if on any tyres at all. And sure, it would have been lauded as brave as
hell and ‘a racer’s decision’ to risk it. But this championship is tight. Incredibly tight.
And Lewis can’t afford to risk a complete tyre failure on one hand for a couple of extra
points on the other. Merc made the right call. I mean, the right call was to pit at basically
the same point as Perez. Maybe sooner. But as I said, we can only work within the
circumstances we’ve already created for ourselves. So yes, Hamilton was frustrated at the time and
fans wanted to see him go for it on old tyres. But at that moment in time… that was all they could do
to salvage a race that slipped away from them. Congrats to Valtteri though.
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