Prison Trump is a schedule to visit the DMZ this afternoon in a surprise tweet
Saturday of course to give you a recap he said he'd be happy to meet with Kim
Jimin at the border even if it's just a handshake and a friendly hello Pyongyang
appears to be on board with this idea now to find out what this sudden
development could lead to I have live via Skype Harry J Casillas senior
director at the Center for national interest in Washington DC Harry yeah
thank you so much for joining us hi Jeff how are you
now Harry so you and I were speaking about this for quite some time now for a
couple of days now how likely at this point do you think it is for North
Korean leader Kim jong-un to be there to need present Trump and for them to I
suppose share a handshake and what about president moon well I think it's a 100
percent certainty that Kim jong-un is going to be there III just think he
really at this point it's a historic opportunity to essentially reset
relations Jen and I think Donald Trump was very smart to tweet this out I have
a feeling that the White House was sending out feelers to North Korea
probably through that the New York channel at the UN General Assembly
through those ambassadors maybe didn't hear anything back or maybe just got
sort of intermittent signals so I think what President Trump did is he tried to
box Kim jong-un in with this tweet and I think it's probably going to end up
working now does president mood end up joining those conversations and having a
trilateral summit I think so to be honest with you I mean North Koreans are
against having president from there they out of the footage in KCNA or other
Norfolk an outlet I think this is going to happen so we apparently we are gonna
see something historic today perhaps our president Trump even floated the idea
that he could step over the demarcation line which would make him the first US
president ever to step on North Korean soil so that's probably another good
optics for president Trump perhaps we've seen various developments since the the
failure of the Hanoi summit or when President Trump walked out on that
including Kim meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin met Kim Hosting Chinese
President Xi Jinping in Pyongyang and then this exchange of personal letters
between Kim and Trump do you expect a change in Washington's ffv d stands
falling these developments is there any likelihood that they might be sanctions
for North Korea at any cost I think there is jeanna I think people in the
administration in the NSC in the White House staff I think they're very slowly
coming around to the idea that a compromise solution North Korea is going
to be the best solution what I think you could see happen I don't think you can
see has happened today but the weeks and months ahead an agreement where the
White House agrees to suspend sanctions not eliminate them but maybe suspend
them free here that gives the White House the opportunity to say the maximum
pressure campaign is still going on we're not eliminating the sanctions but
we're allowing the North Koreans to essentially buy some good international
will now the North Koreans would have to trade something substantial it'd
probably be the full 300 buildings plus at the Yongbyon nuclear facility around
you of North Korea's nuclear program and I think that's the auspices of a deal I
mean that's essentially a bigger deal than what would have came from Hanoi you
might see things like a peace declaration the Korean War liaison
offices I think all that could be part of a package but I think Washington at
this point is really the only thing that's holding this up having such a you
know a hardcore stance on sanctions but I think if Trump says he can suspend
them I think that's a formula that works for everyone
now Harry assume this this surprise meeting this handshake photo of
opportunity along the DMZ between Trump and Kim what is in it for the u.s. and
what's in it for Kim jong-un if he does make you know his long way from
Pyongyang to the demarcation line I think Jen for both of them I think it's
they have the same goal it's a reset I think both were disappointed at the
results in Hanoi I think Kim jong-un came to Hanoi basically having an offer
and young beyond that he thought Donald Trump would take I think him thought
Donald Trump was weekend with the Michael Cohen hearings going in
Washington and some respects Kim was probably right Donald Trump was
not in a position to compromise with North Korea he did not want progressives
and neoconservatives bashing him both at the same time when he had no idea it was
going to happen with the Muller report and essentially he was fighting for his
political life so that the timing of the summit was just awful
but now that that is a little bit past Donald Trump there is the opportunity
now to reset relations maybe get newer Donald Trump actually steps into North
Korea and that gives this a lot of momentum so no game changer but a lot of
momentum and that's a good thing now Kim jong-un reportedly told our
Chinese President Xi Jinping when Xi Jinping was visiting Pyongyang that
North Korea's ultimate goal of denuclearization is it's a regime
security now is there a viable way to guarantee North Korea this regime
survival of security I think so but I think we have to take a match and
understand that this is going to take a long time North Korea's nuclear program
is massive it is thousands maybe tens of thousands of scientists hundreds
probably thousands of buildings massive massive infrastructure so I think we
need to understand that the full denuclearization of North Korea could
take a decade or more so I think you're going to need to have a formula where
every time North Korea takes a big steps toward that they get something big in
return I think that's how you build trust with the North Koreans that's how
you reset this relationship and you have to dig in for the long haul this is
something that's going to outlast the Trump administration so this is
something that's going to take a long time and I think if you're willing to
make that time investment I think the North Koreans will also be willing to
make that time investment and they will feel secure that they can finally give
up their nuclear weapons but it is going to take a long time but we need to
understand that absolutely well Harry um we're gonna have a lot more to talk
about with you as soon as this meeting this afternoon
is over perhaps more more in Korea time but Harry cavion is thank you so much
for your insights as usual Harry Cohn is a director at the Center for the
national interest many things as always