In this series, we will analyse teams, identify problem areas, and suggest
solutions in the form of incoming players. We won’t follow gossip, rumours
or conjecture. We’re concerned only with a player’s on-field performance and
their suitability for the role in question.
Today’s team is Newcastle United, welcome to Sensible Transfers.
Newcastle United are in a strange position. At once newly wealthy beyond the dreams of most
clubs, and yet precipitously poised above the drop to the Championship. New manager Eddie Howe has a
job on his hands reshaping one of the league’s worst defences and harnessing the few attacking
talents that Newcastle do have into a team that can quickly rise away from a relegation battle.
Now it’s possible that Newcastle will seek to make a splash in the market,
and mooted signings like Coutinho, Dele Alli, or Ousmane Dembele would certainly
signal the club’s arrival. But that’s not how we tend to look at things here at Tifo.
Regardless of how they proceed, Newcastle United need to get better,
and quickly. The squad has serious deficiencies in every position,
but the issues start at the back: Newcastle’s goalkeeping and defensive records show them
conceding relegation-levels of expected goals and shipping even more than that in actuality.
There is also a failure to progress the ball through midfield, hit the box with regularity,
and a singular reliance on Allan Saint-Maximin as the team’s primary creative outlet.
In short, we could pick almost any position for this Newcastle side, but if you can’t stop the
goal leakage and get some semblance of control in attacking transitions, then you cannot win games.
So, with that in mind, where should Newcastle focus?
Newcastle need, simply, the best centre back they can afford and then persuade to come to the
club. The latter of these is an issue: most of the world’s best are at top clubs and few would relish
a relegation battle, albeit in the prestigious Premier League. One slightly leftfield suggestion
is Toluca’s Oscar Ortega, a hugely promising young Mexican defender with a good range of passing
and high defensive output. PSV’s Olivier Boscagli, who can also play as a defensive midfielder,
would bring excellent distribution with his left foot, but might need pairing with a tougher,
front foot defender. Jerome Onguene of RB Salzburg is a quick, physically dominant defender with good
passing, but is untested at the highest level – he has a huge amount of potential, though.
Our pick, though, is the towering Lille centre back Sven Botman.
Botman is aerially excellent, defensively dominant in ground duels,
and is most suited to playing in a fairly deep defence which suits Newcastle at the moment.
Playing for a Lille side that still has financial problems, and has struggled since Christophe
Gaultier left, Botman is both an immediate upgrade and probably an achievable target. Botman has been
on many clubs’ radar for a while, though, so if Newcastle wait they could face a fight.
As well as toughening up at the back, Newcastle need to improve further up their spine. The back
four needs shielding by a player who can not only win the ball back and press, but also
effectively begin transitions. An ideal pick is Lyon’s Bruno Guimares, but Alex was not allowed
to select him because he’s earmarked for another club. Rubin Kazan’s hardworking and technically
excellent Hwang In-beom excels at carrying the ball out of dangerous areas and is also a
ruthless ball-hunter. Another intriguing option is Hoffenheim’s Florian Grillitsch, currently
out of contract in the summer. Tifo have long admired his defensive work ethic and progressive
passing from deep, and a solid bid could tempt Hoffenheim under the current circumstances.
Our pick, though, is Monaco’s Aurelien Tchouameni. He’s defensively excellent, superb
at interceptions and tackling, adept at recovering loose balls, and always looking to get his team
back on the front foot. Although his defensive work stands out, he’s a very handy all-round
player, even weighing in with a surprising number of shots for a defensively-minded player.
At 21-years-old, Tchouameni still has many years ahead of him in topflight football
and he seems destined to play in the Premier League, so the benefit for him of shining at
Newcastle rather than waiting a year or two for someone bigger to come in could be advantageous.
Now while we’ve put attacking midfielder here,
a central midfielder who gets the ball into dangerous areas is equally helpful.
It’s worth saying that Newcastle are still a work in progress under Howe. So far,
he’s played Joelinton off Callum Wilson with flanking attacking wide players, so someone
who could play as a 10 might be an option. But with Joe Willock great at getting forwards,
a 4-1-4-1 is an option too, especially if Newcastle prioritise security in big games.
One intriguing option is Brighton’s Pascal Gross,
another who is out of contract in the summer and has plenty of Premier League experience.
He’s creative and an effective presser and would also be able to play wider if needed.
Another good presser with strong creative attributes is the much younger Enzo Lo Fee
of Lorient. Lo Fee’s goals and assists output is oddly meagre but he’s a very effective progressor
of the ball in a solid Lorient team and has a high ceiling, although probably not at the
highest level. Empoli attacking midfielder Nedim Bajrami is a more direct, ball carrying prospect
who has created a lot of shooting opportunities for others this season. And for a slightly deeper
midfielder, Lens’ Cheick Doucoure has built on his excellent promise in Ligue 2 two seasons ago
to become one of Ligue’s 1 more interesting central midfield prospects. He’s another with
super progression numbers both passing and carrying and adds some bite defensively too.
Our pick, though, is Bayern’s Corentin Tolisso. The France international simply
doesn’t get a look in at his current club because of the quality options in the squad,
but that’s not to say he’s not still a hugely effective, all-round midfielder.
Indeed, Tolisso would start at almost any other club in Europe,
but for some reason seems to be forgotten every time the transfer window rolls around.
He would be a massive coup for Newcastle, but would add immediate, international calibre
quality. He can play anywhere from six to ten in a lesser side, defends well, and is an exceptional
progressive passer. He might jump at the chance to resurrect his career, and Newcastle would
be getting a peak age player around whom the rest of the side could be constructed.