I have already touched on this briefly in other videos, but I think I could go into
more detail, as it's pretty major.
Now before you die of despair and think that 5 figure Tesla stock price wont be a thing
if Robotaxis aren't in the US, relax, this is good news.
For starters I want to be clear, I am referring
to the dedicated robotaxi.
I don't think that will ever be out in the US, at least if it ever is, it won't be for
a long time.
My theory is that for Tesla to make the most impact on their mission, then the Robotaxi
business must be designed to reduce as much CO2 emission as possible.
Therefore it would need to replace as much of the driving as possible, and as many cars
as possible.
I can only think of 2 ways of achieving this, one is to drive the Robotaxi that much faster,
which might be a possibility for Boring tunnels, resulting in more trips within the same space
of time.
The other, well it's very simple, you just use car pooling.
The more people in the taxi at once, the fewer vehicles are required on the road.
Vehicles in developing nations, well they
don't have as high emission standards as somewhere like Germany for instance.
They simply can't afford the vehicles, or the regulation costs involved.
Transport needs to happen anyway possible in these nations.
Even if it is significantly more expensive in the long term, and creates pollution, a
city still needs to move.
Poorer nations can't always make the huge investments required for updating infrastructure.
As a result, these vehicles emit much more pollution and CO2 than say a modern Mercedes,
or even a GM car.
Now why would Tesla want to replace modern Mercedes vehicles, or even hybrids, with EVs,
when they can be replacing decades old vehicles with black smoke coming out of their exhausts?
It's so obvious.
It's so obvious in fact, that if Tesla don't follow this path, it would actually concern
me as a shareholder, as Tesla are not fulfilling their mission like they stated.
It makes so much more sense then replacing
highly polluting vehicles with EVs, rather than modern highly regulated emissions vehicles.
Yea, sure, but that's the issue in the first place isn't it.
Consumers in these nations can't afford a new luxurious EV, or even a new low emissions
ICE vehicle.
However, in these nations, they care less about personal space, and are willing to pool,
or share a Robotaxi with other fellow commuters.
The Robotaxis would offer luxuries like comfortable seating, air con, a TV to watch, and obviously
much safer.
But all of this for less than cost of taking a smelly old, bus.
And it may actually pick you up and drop you off at your destination.
Perhaps as many as 10 commuters in such a taxi, each giving up their dirty old polluting
modes of transport, reducing emissions, and fewer vehicles on the road.
But eventually you hit a virtuous circle.
The more cars you remove from the road, replacing with Robotaxis, then the less congestion there
will be, which means that traffic can move faster, which means Robotaxis are able to
do even more work, replacing even more cars.
There are more similar tipping points within the EV industry.
Eventually we reach more abundance, as more economies of scale come into place.
This is really going to be the Robobus isn't it, and likely not too dissimilar to the one
we have seen before, ample seating available to cater as many people in as efficiently
as possible.
The entire length of the taxi can be used for seating, obviously no engine in the front,
but no frunk either.
The battery will be the structure, and the motors can like be under the seating.
In other words a large volume to area ratio, when compared to an ICE mini bus.
The less area the taxi takes up, the more positive effect it will have on congestion,
what with being a smaller vehicle, and the higher volume will allow for higher occupancy
per sq foot.
This may result in compromising drag coefficiency slightly.
As these are Robo buses, I think it would
make most sense keeping them within the city limits, and no long distance driving out of
the city, as it will then reduce the average number of passengers available in further
commutes, to less sought after destinations.
It would be much more efficient serving the denser population, and will have the most
impact there first.
The 80/20 rule.
With less long distance driving, and being stuck in traffic in the city for most of the
driving, then the taxis likely won't cover that many miles in a day of taxiing.
So the battery should easily last a full day before needing to charge.
We have mainly thought that Robotaxis would
most likely be using LFP cells, due to the additional lifetime of the cells.
But for those of you who recall, before battery day, the million mile battery was a big deal,
and was one of the main expectations from Battery Day.
It is still assumed by many that the 4680s will be capable of a million mile battery,
but we don't have confirmation, nor charging speeds.
But anyway, if Tesla are setting up in Indonesia, for the nickel, then these Robotaxis will
likely be 4680 cells.
This would mean that Tesla are able to get more range from their taxis compared to LFP.
Now I have been a strong advocate of LFP, as I think it is an essential cell type for
the transition of renewable, and many of you know that I have been talking about it for
a long time.
But I think it is getting blown of proportion somewhat.
Tesla can produce 4680 cells, faster and cheaper than LFP for example.
And nickel cells are more profitable, as consumers really do see value in a longer range vehicle,
and willing to pay extra for it.
Having said that, if Robotaxis do become as
big as we are speculating here, then it may very well make sense to set up a recycling
facility here too, perhaps Redwood Materials.
Now with about 25 million people commuting
around the city each day, well that's a lot of potential fares.
About half of these people are driving scooters, and about 1/3 of the others are likely driving
old polluting cars.
And about 1/3 use the current public transport.
Therefore there should be plenty of demand from people in scooters, or riding around
in non-air con transport in the tropics, that would be willing to pay more for Tesla Robotaxi
luxury.
Except that's how amazing Tesla is, you get a lot more, for less.
Robotaxis will cost less than buses.
Just like how when you buy a Tesla car, it costs less than the equivalent BMW or Mercedes,
yet has better performance, and more features as standard.
Of course it has a significantly lower running cost too.
All these nations tend to have bad congestion
and bad pollution.
They are all crying out for Tesla Robotaxis.
Is this really such an issue in the US?
Alright sure, some cities are pretty bad, but I don't think on the same scale.
But I am not sure Americans will be so willing to pool in taxis to rectify the situation
anyway.
Perhaps the robotaxi will be more like a bus, so less personal, but not sure.
I know, this may be jumping the gun a little,
perhaps a bit too early to think about, self driving cars in developing nations with poor
roads and bad adherence to traffic laws.
But we are talking about trillions of dollars of potential here, more profit than any company
may have ever seen, and possibly just from Indonesia alone.
So when you point out potential issues, remember to think, what if a trillion dollars was thrown
at it.
Yea, things become a lot more possible then.
For instance, perhaps it will be hard for various edge cases for Robotaxis in Indonesia
to begin with.
But what if to start with, each Robotaxi had a person in the taxi as a controller, or perhaps
from anywhere in the world.
If a taxi gets into a situation where it needs some help, then if there is a controller inside
the Robotaxi, they can perhaps use an app, that can direct the Robotaxi out of the way,
with a summon like feature.
Given the lower cost of labor in such nations, this would still be feasible.
But like I said, this possibly can be done remotely, from a control center, and whenever
a taxi gets in trouble, the control center is alerted, and they can manually control
and direct the Robotaxi.
Of course we would hope over time, that the Robotaxi can work by itself and needs less
assistance.
The point is, that there are ways around getting earlier adoption.
But what about the US, Tesla has so much data
about drivers about there, it's likely Robotaxis may not have much trouble being approved in
many states.
Surely it just makes more sense to start Robotaxis there.
Remember, I have never said there will not be Robotaxis in the US, I am saying that I
don't think the dedicated Robotaxi is for the US market, at least not to start with.
Due to the fact that 80% of fares will be single passenger, and the ones with multiple
passengers, are likely all in the same party.
Pooling won't work as well.
So it's wasteful sending out a robo bus for one person.
Therefore I think developed nations will stay the path we initially thought.
Tesla owners adding their Tesla's into the Robotaxi fleet, which may happen as early
as next year too.
Alright I know there is a big divide between
Robotaxi believers and non-believers.
Some people think they are being realistic and saying not until next decade.
Others simply refuse the entire possibility.
However, of these opinions, none of them ever seem to be AI neuralnet specialists.
These people just try to sound pragmatic, yet still clueless about the tech.
I think actions speak louder than words, and Tesla appears to be taking the action very
much so, that they believe Robotaxis will be achieved within the next couple of years.
It just may not be to the level that some people expected, yet to a level high enough
that many nations still realize it has massive benefits to their nations, that far outweigh
any potential downsides, like a Robotaxi hitting a road cone.