♪.
SEAN: HOW WILL THE MIDTERMS
SHAPE UP IN NOVEMBER?
A TRAFALGAR POLL SHOWS
REPUBLICANS TAKING BACK CONTROL
OF THE HOUSE DESPITE CONFLICTING
REPORTS IN MEDIA.
TO SET US STRAIGHT, ROBERT
CAHALI, TRAFALGAR GROUP PEEL
SISTER.
WHAT IS YOUR TAKE?
HOW MANY SEATS WILL THE
REPUBLICANS WIN THE HOUSE BY IN
NOVEMBER AND DO REPUBLICANS
STILL HAVE A SHOT AT TAKING THE
SENATE?
>> THANKS FOR HAVING ME.
YES, RIGHT NOW WHAT YOU’RE
SEEING IS, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE ALL
THESE POLLS THAT COME OUT AND
EVERYBODY STARTS BELIEVING THEM,
LOOK AT THEIR RECORDS ARE THE
LAST FEW YEARS.
A LOT OF THESE UNIVERSITY MEDIA
POLLS, THEY CLEARLY HAVE A
INTENT THERE.
SO WHAT YOU NEED TO DO IS LOOK
FOR THE POLLS THAT ARE A LITTLE
MORE HONEST WITH REPUTATION.
THEY’RE STILL IS AN ADVANTAGE.
EVEN JUST A FEW POINTS, THESE
THINGS ARE BY DISTRICT.
THIS IS NOT A NATIONAL POPULAR
VOTE FOR THE HOUSE.
SO I STILL THINK THE, WHAT WE’RE
LOOKING AT PROBABLY A HOUSE
PICKUP OF WELL OVER 10 SEATS.
AND NOW THE SENATE IS A LITTLE
MORE COMPETITIVE BUT I WOULDN’T
BE SO QUICK TO POO-POO THE
CHANCES IN THE SENATE.
I SEE A LOT OF THAT HAPPENING.
WE’RE NOT EVEN TO LABOR DAY YET.
THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS IN D.C.
THERE IS ALL THE PARLOR GAMES
AND PEOPLE PUTTING OUT POLLS BUT
WE TEND TO SEE THINGS KIND OF
STRAIGHTEN BACK OUT WHEN PEOPLE
ARE PAYING ATTENTION.
FIRST EXAMPLE, YOU LOOK IN
PENNSYLVANIA, FOR ALL INTENTS
AND PURPOSES FETTERMAN WITH HIS
SICKNESS WAS KIND OF A COCOON,
NOBODY WAS ALLOWED TO HIT HIM.
IT WAS DISTASTEFUL WHILE HITTING
ALL OVER OZ.
THE FACT OZ IS ONLY BACK A FEW
POINTS TELLS ME THAT NOW THAT
WHEN IT STARTS BEING A FAIR
FIGHT, THAT THAT IS A VERY
COMPETITIVE RACE.
I KNOW THAT OZ HAS APPEAL WAY
BEYOND JUST REPUBLICANS.
HE BUILT QUITE AN AUDIENCE FROM
THE TV SHOW.
I THINK THAT WAS MORE
COMPETITIVE THAN PEOPLE THINK.
I THINK WHAT WE’VE SEEN IN OHIO
THERE IS COUPLE POLLS MORE
CREDIBLE THAT HAVE JD VANCE
LEADING IN OHIO.
I DON’T, I DON’T REALLY THINK
OHIO IS EVEN A SWING STATE
ANYMORE.
I THINK THEY HAVE PROVEN THAT A
FEW CYCLES IN A ROW.
AND WE LOOK AT, AT NEVADA,
NEVADA LOOKS LIKE A PICKUP AT
THIS POINT.
AND ARIZONA, WE JUST PUT OUT
ARIZONA TODAY AND ARIZONA HE IS
A FEW POINTS BACK BUT ARIZONA,
THERE IS A LOT TO HAPPEN BETWEEN
NOW AND THE ELECTION AND, THERE
IS A LOT OF FUNDING ISSUES.
THERE IS A LOT MORE PEOPLE
COMING ACROSS THE BORDER.
AND THERE ARE MAJOR ISSUES WILL
AFFECT ALL THESE RACES BUT ONE
THING MOST DETERMINATIVE, THIS
IS AN ELECTION ABOUT BIDEN.
THEY CHAN HIDE IT, ACT LIKE IT
IS NOT THERE.
I COMPARED IT TO A HOUSE FULL OF
TERMITES.
EVERYTHING LOOKS FINE, MAYBE
NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT IT,
BEFORE IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE
IT WILL BE THE ONLY THING THAT
MATTERS.
WHEN YOU RUNNING WITH BIDEN THE
VOTERS ARE LOOKING AT A BIG RED
BUTTON SAYS STOP THE BIDEN
AGENDA AND A BLUE BUTTON THAT
SAYS CONTINUE IT.
I THINK VOTERS WILL PRESS THE
RED BUTTON.
SEAN: ROBERT, WE’RE IN AUGUST, A
LOT OF PEOPLE ARE JUST GETTING
KIDS BACK TO SCHOOL.
THEY’RE JUST COMING OFF
VACATION.
PEOPLE ARE NOT FOCUSED ON
ELECTIONS QUITE YET.
THEY’RE FOCUSED ON GAS PRICES
AND FOOD PRICES, YOU ARE SAYING
WHEN PEOPLE GET INTO SEPTEMBER,
OCTOBER, AND START FOCUSING ON
ISSUES THAT MATTER TO THEM, THEY
CAN’T VOTE AGAINST JOE BIDEN IN
NOVEMBER BUT CAN VOTE AGAINST
THE PARTY OF JOE BIDEN YOU WILL
SEE THESE POLLS ACTUALLY TREND A
LITTLE MORE REPUBLICAN?
>> YEAH I THINK THEY WILL BE
SENDING A MESSAGE.
WE’LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH FOOD
PRICES.
WE’LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH FUEL
PRICES.
GOSH FORBID WE HAVE EARLY FREEZE
AND PEOPLE START FILLING UP THE
HEATING OIL TANKS BECAUSE THEY
WILL REALLY GET A SHOCK.
IT IS NOT GOING TO BE THIS
PANACEA THAT EVERYBODY THINKS IT
IS GOING TO BE, THINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK THEIR
DIRECTION.
I THINK THE COST OF WHAT THEY
HAVE DONE WITH BIDEN
ADMINISTRATION WILL CATCH UP
WITH THEM.
THIS COLLEGE TUITION THING IS
UNIQUELY UNPOPULAR.
NOT TO MENTION THE IRS.
WHEN PEOPLE HEAR THAT HEY,
THEY’RE HIRING 87,000 MORE
GOVERNMENT AGENTS, EVERYBODY
THINKS HEY, THEY’RE SENDING IN
HEROES, MORE BORDER PATROL
AGENTS, MORE POLICEMEN.
NO THEY HIRED A BUNCH MORE
VAMPIRES.
SEAN: ROBERT, I’M GOING BACK
FOUR MONTHS IN THE GENERIC
POLLING.
"FOX NEWS" POLLING HAD
REPUBLICANS UP BY SEVEN ON
GENERIC BALLOT.
NO NAME ON BALLOT, REPUBLICAN OR
DEMOCRAT.
MOST RECENT POLLING HAS IT EVEN
50-50.
I WONDER IF THAT HAS TO DO WITH
THE DOBBS DECISION ON ABORTION
RIGHTS?
IS THAT THE DECISION THAT IS
IMPACTING VOTERS?
WHAT’S DRIVING THIS SHIFT FROM
REPUBLICAN NOW TO DEMOCRAT?
>> WELL, THERE IS A COUPLE
THINGS THAT CERTAINLY IMPACTED
IT.
CERTAINLY THE SUPREME COURT
RULING IMPACTED BUT WHAT
IMPACTED IT MORE THAN THE
SUPREME COURT RULING ON THE
ABORTION ISSUE WAS SOME OF THE
IMMEDIATE REACTION OF SOME OF
THE REPUBLICAN STATES TO GO MUCH
FURTHER.
YOU KNOW, WE POLLED THIS
NATIONALLY IN MANY, MANY STATES.
WHEN YOU’RE TALKING ABOUT FEET
TALL PAIN, HEARTBEAT OR
SOMETHING LIKE THAT, AND RAPE,
INCEST, LIFE OF THE MOTHER,
YOU’RE AT 50, 60% OF THE VOTERS.
WHEN YOU START TIGHTENING UP
BEYOND THAT, YOU START LOSING
THAT WORKING MAJORITY AND YOU
KNOW, WINNING ELECTIONS IS
IMPORTANT AND PEOPLE NEED TO
KEEP THAT IN MIND.
THIS IS PROBABLY NOT THE TIME TO
BE FOCUSED ON DOING THAT.
SEAN: ROBERT, I THINK DEMOCRATS
ARE RUNNING ADS AGAINST
REPUBLICANS RIGHT NOW.
REPUBLICANS HAVE TO PUSH BACK,
HIT BACK, TALK ABOUT THE