Hey everybody, good morning it's first
born Storm team Chief meteorologist Brad
Panovich good news and bad news today.
For some folks, good news,
the severe weather risk is gone
down for a big chunk of the area.
Really, the entire area. Honestly,
in a few areas it's I will tell you,
it's probably not zero,
but it's really low.
But areas South and East that risk still
persist and I'll kind of talk about that,
so I'll lead initially here with the
updated severe weather outlook came
out at 2:00 o'clock in the morning.
If you watch my midnight update,
we kind of knew that we're going to see
some changes with this, and sure enough,
the areas to the North have been reduced.
To a low and medium risk in
the greater risk is really been
shoved off to the South and East.
Now this is the medium.
Risk is always something to keep an eye on,
but the lower risk typically
I would say we're OK.
The areas that I feel more confident
that probably won't see much of anything.
It's probably right in here.
Mountains and foothills.
Once you get East and South East of I-85,
which runs right here,
I really think all this area
here is the area we gotta watch.
But even up in here we're going to keep a
close eye and I'll tell you why in a minute,
but I'm going to show
you the overall setup so.
If you been outside this morning,
you know it's still pretty cool out there.
The warm front has not moved North yet.
The problem is it still has
plenty of time to move North,
and even though you see this
main line of storms here,
the main cold front is still back here,
so this is going to give time for storms
to redevelop as they push northeast
and the warm front comes North.
I'm going to turn on the temperatures
here real quickly just to show you that
pocket of cold air this stays in place.
This would help us.
It would save us from severe
weather completely.
But what I anticipate will happen is this
warm front will come North to some degree.
How far North?
Who knows?
Maybe I 40 so that's why area South
and East have the best chance to see
that recovery and get into that warm,
humid air as that pushes to these.
But you could see this morning.
I mean put the watch is on.
We still have tornado watch is
down in Georgia and several tornado
warnings this morning.
And while these are tracking this
direction more so than this direction,
so this is what we gotta watch going
into the afternoon. I will say two.
I think this is going to be slightly
slower because it's pivoting.
Back into the main low,
which is still back here or near
Saint Louis because they're kind
of moving in this direction.
They're getting here a lot
slower than you would think,
so let me show you the updated
tornado probabilities as well.
This is kind of giving a good idea on
where those stand as we look towards today.
So here's a change in the
tornado probabilities down
to 5% for most of the area,
but 10% still holding on for these
areas South and East of Charlotte
than 15% out towards the coast.
Here's the timing.
I kinda updated this slightly because
of what I'm expecting to happen today.
I really think right around
midday to mid afternoon,
so maybe a couple hours slower than even
last night and I'll explain why that is.
It admitted the probabilities overall.
Still got a tornado threat, but it's in
the medium risk and the wind threat.
Has come down to the medium risk as well,
so let me show you what I'm talking about.
As far as why this is slowing down,
I'm going to do a quick futurecast here.
This is actually a grab at 7:00
AM this morning,
but let me show you this closer.
It will actually use this map to
kind of show you how this unfolds,
so we'll start our future cast at
about 10:00 o'clock in the morning.
You can see this line developing
to the Southwest.
Looks a little aggressive here,
but you get an idea as it moves
into the middle of the day.
The first batch is kind of get
eaten up by the wedge.
Remember that cold air is going to be here,
but the.
A warm front is going to
be moving to the North,
so basically it's a race between
the cold front which is right
here and the warm air which is
trying to surge up ahead of it.
So This is why the timing
here is really crucial.
There's going to be a very narrow
window or corridor of time
where these two are lined up,
so this is right around noon.
You can see the storms entering the
mountains and foothills likely not
strong or severe there scattered here,
which is not always a good thing because
they could become more isolated,
independent and actually feed off
the environment a little better.
You see the storms down in South Carolina,
but watch what happens right here around.
Two to three.
We've got this little band of
storms moving across Interstate 77.
We've got a little cluster there,
one there,
one up here and bigger ones down here.
So anywhere in here this early
afternoon and remember this is the
peak heating at the day as well,
so this is actually would be more favorable,
especially if that warm front drifts North.
But you could see through the afternoon
that little mind pushes off to the East,
so I think that's the little
cluster we gotta watch really,
after lunchtime into mid afternoon.
Kind of pushing off to the East and.
In that same vein,
I want to show you the STP values with this,
which are called significant
tornado parameters.
Here in a minute.
But I'm going to back this up,
but what I'm going to do is
show you that instability,
which is basically the Cape we call it.
I'm going to plot this on here real
quickly as I'm talking to you just
to show you how this evolves today.
This is the fuel for storm,
so you see it kind of surging
up and let me back this up.
So you could see I could show you exactly
where the warm front is right there.
Here's the cold front.
This is the fuel for storms.
Watch what happens is we go to
about one or two this afternoon.
Let's stop it right there,
see how it surges up.
So look at that.
I'm up here, one 2:00 o'clock this
afternoon till about 3:00 o'clock,
right there to 4:00 o'clock.
So there's that there is a very narrow
corridor that stuff shoots up here
just ahead of that front and gives
us the potential to see those storms.
So let me show you the STP values.
I show this often,
which is the significant tornado parameter,
just to show you.
How this is changing?
Again, these are the ingredients
for tornadic storms.
Obviously nothing this morning.
Nothing, nothing, nothing, nothing.
And then same time right here.
This is around noon.
This is 1:00 o'clock this evening.
This is two o'clock, three o'clock,
four o'clock, 5:00 o'clock.
So you see that surge coming up
right there in mid afternoon.
So it's it's going to be quick.
It's going to come in all at once.
It could go from 50s and 60s
up to the 70s briefly,
and those Felicity tracks,
which are basically rotating storms.
Not all of these, which is good,
but there are a couple that
pop up you can see.
Right here, right across the Piedmont's.
That batch moves through.
There's one or two more down here.
Overall, there's very few of 'em.
That's a good sign overall,
and something I would be very happy with it.
It stays that way, but again, there's that.
There's that moisture that
instability coming in this afternoon,
so will keep an eye on it.
The good news, overall threat.
There's no doubt about it has gone down.
There is a look at the system where
it is now in comparison to us this
line right here is in Georgia,
taking its sweet time to get up here.
So still a risk for storms today.
But the good news is the risk has gone
down tremendously until later this
afternoon and shifted to the stay.
Weather aware.
Make sure you stab alerts,
got a little more time to prepare for this,
and keep an eye in the Sky as
we go into the afternoon.