Two long years, we are now in the position where Covid has reached our shores
in a widespread way. Our 7 day average for cases is 1667
and we are predicting cases will continue to double every 3 to 4 days.
It's likely then, that very soon, we will all know people who have Covid or we will
potentially get it ourselves. There was a time where that was a scary prospect,
but it doesn't have to be now and that's for three reasons.
Firstly, we are highly vaccinated and that happened before Omicron set in. Secondly,
our high vaccination coverage means Covid will be a mild to moderate
illness for most people and if you're boosted you're 10 times less likely to end up in hospital.
Thirdly, even though for some people Covid will still be more severe,
we're using public health measures like masks, gathering limits and vaccine passes to slow
down the spread to ensure there is a hospital bed for everyone who needs it.
So far, that plan is working. We have 46 cases per 100,000 people compared to 367
in New South Wales and 664 in Victoria at the same point in the outbreak. Our
hospitalisations too are well below Australian states at a similar time.
That all means that our healthcare system can continue to kepe people safe
so if someone has a heart attack tonight, the ambulance will arrive
and take them to a hospital with a free bed and that is thanks to everyone who
has stayed the course despite it being so incredibly hard at times.
But what comes next? Our primary goal is to manage Covid with as few restrictions on our daily lives
as possible, to keep people feeling confident and safe, and to accelerate our economic recovery.
As always, what that means in terms of changing restrictions
isn't an easy question to answer in an often unpredictable pandemic. But look
at what is happening overseas, we can begin to look to the future.
Firstly, we know our wave of cases is likely to hit a peak in roughly
mid- to late-March, only 3 to 6 weeks away. At that point, if we follow the pattern of other
countries, we'll likely see a rapid decline followed by cases stablising at a lower level.
That is the point where we can start to do things differently. First the traffic light
system will change. The Covid Protection Framework is build to keep our hospitals
and wider healthcare system running. Once we come out the other side of the peak, it will be clearer
that we've reached our high point and that we have managed it, that our hospitals have managd, and we
can begin to ease the public health measures that did their job in slowing the wave down.
And so we'll be able to look at moving through the traffic lights,
easing off the gathering limits for instance. But we also employed extra tools like vaccine
passes in the face of Delta and Omicron. As we have always said, these were necessary.
If we hadn't had vaccine passes as we managed Delta, we would have had to instead use more
general restrictions across the whole population. They have always been the least bad option.
But while they have been necessary, as I've always said, they've also been temporary.
Vaccine passes were a way of ensuring within the relatively free system of the traffic lights,
that people who were in high-risk places had some layer of protection. But once we come through a
wave and a peak of Omicron, that equation changes because many unvaccinated people, at that point,
will have been exposed to COvid-19.
Put simply, the reason we will be able to move away from vaccine passes and many mandates
is because more people will have had Covid. So in the same way that coming out the other
side of the peak will give us the chance to step down through the traffic light system
and ease things like gathering limits, it will also enable us to move on from vaccine passes
and ease mandates in places where they are least likely to impact on vulnerable people.
They will remain important in some areas though for some time.
There can be no specific date given at this point, but what I can tell you is that we'll
be looking to make sure that we are well beyond the peak and that the pressure on our health
system is manageable. Some might ask, why not do away with the traffic light system entirely?
The first answer is new variants and potential future waves for which we must remain prepared.
And the second is that we will go through our first winter with Covid at the same
time that flu returns following two winters of very low rates, so as our borders open,
we approach winter with the potential of more illness.
We need to ensure our health system can manage a heavier burden as well.
To summarise then, the coming weeks. Covid will increase and rapidly, there will be disruption
and pressure from Omicron. We must brace through the next 6 weeks but we can do so knowing a future
with fewer restrictions is near becasue that has always been the course we have chartered.
We've stopped using lockdowns, our borders reopen to Australia in a week, we'll progressively
keep on opening, our use of MIQ, which has helped us so much, will change dramatically,
and as we reach that peak and start to come down, we can start to move towards
a life that feels a little more like a new normal that we can all live with.
2022 is about moving forward, New Zealand is in demand internationally and again
our primary goal is to manage Covid with as few restrictions
and accelerate our economic recovery, and continue to ensure that livelihoods are protected.
While everything I have said today has been directed to every New Zealander who is anxious
about the future either because they're afraid or because they just want Covid to be over,
I'll leave this final message for those occupying the lawns at Parliament.
Everyone is over Covid. No-one wants to live with rules or restrictions,
but had we not all been willing to work together to protect one another, then we
all would have been worse off as individuals, including losing people we love. That hasn't
happened here for the most part, and that is a fact worth celerbating rather than protesting.
We all want to go back to the way that life was, and we will, I suspect sooner than you think.
But when that happens it will be because easing restrictions won't compromise
the lives of thousands of people, not because you demanded it.
Now is not the time to dismantle our hard work and preparation,
to remove our armour just as the battle begins.