There are many, possibly infinite, potential actions that you can take at any moment.
And at every moment, one action has to be singled out as the best possible action that
you can take.
And your confidence is the degree of certainty you have that the action you took is truly
the best possible one.
To put it simply, your confidence is a measure of how correct you think you are.
For example, let’s assume that you’re a waiter, and you’re trying to remember
what drink one of your customers ordered.
Let’s say they ordered an iced tea, but you think they ordered a coke.
So the best possible action to take is to get them iced tea, but you think it’s to
get them a coke.
And if you’re highly certain that they ordered a coke, we would say you’re highly confident,
even though that confidence is misguided.
And confidence, even if its misguided, leads to action.
Lack of confidence, on the other hand, leads to hesitation.
See, if you’re not confident that your customer ordered a coke, you would hesitate to get
it for them.
You’d probably go back and ask them what they ordered.
You would do more research and refine your hypothesis.
They tell you that they ordered an iced tea.
So you refine your hypothesis, and your confidence in this hypothesis goes up.
And with increased confidence, comes an increased desire to take action.
A life without confidence is a life unlived, because a life without confidence is a life
full of hesitation.
It’s a life full of plans that were never acted on.
It’s a life full of dreams that were never realized.
It’s a life spent in study and research, without any action.
It’s a life full of wasted potential and regret.
On the other hand, a life of overconfidence is reckless and short-sighted.
It’s a life full of failures and poorly executed plans.
It’s a life spent acting impulsively, never reflecting on how to act better.
And so similar to a life without confidence, overconfidence leads to a life of wasted potential.
Achieving your greatest potential starts with true confidence.
The truly confident are neither unconfident or overconfident.
True confidence is when how correct you think you are overlaps with how correct you actually
are.
In other words, you are correct about how correct you think you are.
Your confidence is an exact measure of your expertise.
You have an accurate view of your own knowlege.
You have self-awareness.
For example, a brain surgeon with true confidence knows the limits of his own knowledge and
that makes him a great surgeon.
When he comes across problems that are outside of his domain of expertise, he passes the
problem on to someone more qualified.
He’s not reckless.
And when he comes across problems that are within his domain of expertise, he handles
them without fear or hesitation.
He’s neither overconfident or unconfident, but truly confident.
The best way, then, to achieve your greatest potential is to focus on your expertise, not
your confidence.
True confidence will always walk hand-in-hand with your expertise.
Most people, for example, would be confident in getting a glass of water in their house,
because they’ve done it a hundred times before.
They’re certain that they could do it.
And the more times you’ve solved a problem in the past, the more certain you are that
you can solve it in the future.
Expertise is what leads to true confidence, and expertise comes from solving a problem
so many times that you can’t help but believe in your ability to solve it.
And expertise is natural and inevitable when you consistently overcome the tests that life
gives you.
A man who has to grow his business in difficult times—through recessions, times of cultural
and technological transition, and changing consumer demands—will have to become an
expert in order
to succeed.