-10 states show a 50% rise in cases since last week.
-Arizona is in its first wave.
There's no talk of a second wave.
-You could get an uptick. I won't call it a "second wave,"
because that would imply that a first wave has come and gone.
We're not there yet.
-As coronavirus cases continue to trend upwards across the U.
S.
, the phrase "second wave,"
and the question of whether we're in the midst
or about to face one, is dominating headlines.
But what exactly does a second wave entail,
when it comes to a pandemic?
According to experts, including top
infectious disease expert Anthony S.
Fauci, the U.
S, is still not through the first wave.
-120,000 deaths in the United States,
and over 2 million infections.
That's a pretty robust wave.
I'd like to see that come down to practically nothing
before we start discussing a second wave.
We are still in the first wave.
Let's focus on getting ourselves out of this one.
-Many other health experts are on the same page as Fauci.
-The goal was to flatten that curve.
If that curve decreased, and the virus went away,
then that wave would be over.
But that hasn't actually happened.
Coronavirus is still with us in the United States.
It's not in every community,
but it's in a lot of communities.
It's in every state.
And there's still community transmission
going on in every state.
So, the reality is, to the extent that this disease
will have waves, we're still in the wave.
We're still in the first wave.
-If we totally relax lockdown, and all other control measures,
then disease resurgence is inevitable.
And it will... .
If the behavior of people were to go back
to how it was earlier in the year --
in January, February -- then, the disease progression
will look much like it did back in January or February.
-The peaks and valleys of a pandemic aren't new.
Outbreaks like the flu epidemic of 1918
consisted of three major waves in a two-year span.
More recent examples include the 2009 outbreak of H1N1,
or swine flu, as well as the H5N1 avian flu of 2003 --
which still continued to flare up almost 10 years later,
according to the World Health Organization.
-Historically, with the infamous 1918 pandemic,
where so many tens and millions of people died --
50 million to 100 million people throughout the world --
had this second wave.
It started off in the spring of 1918,
and then, when it came back in the fall and winter,
what you had was a second wave.
It is not inevitable that we will have it.
We can do something to prevent it.
-In lieu of a vaccine, preventative measures
like masks, social distancing, and shutdowns
remain the best way to contain a pandemic.
And as states continue to ease restrictions,
and people flock to crowded areas and political events,
Fauci says these practices remain the best safeguard.
-One of the issues, when you talk about political rallies,
it becomes a political flash point for sound bites.
When you have a congregation of people, you increase the risk.
It doesn't matter why they're congregating,
or where they're congregating.
When you have a congregation of people in a setting
in which there's active virus circulating in the community,
you are at risk.
You need to wear a mask.
The best possible thing is to avoid crowds
no matter what the venue is.
If for one reason or other, you've made up your mind that,
no matter what I say,
or what any other public health officials say,
you're gonna congregate anyway, then wear a mask.
And please resist the temptation,
when you're at whatever it is you're at --
a demonstration, a rally, whatever you do --
that when you get animated,
and want to express yourself, don't take your mask off.
Those are the things you need to do.
This will end, and it will be within our power to end it,
both from a public health standpoint,
and hopefully within a reasonable time,
with the scientific advances that bring us interventions
in the form or vaccines and therapy.
But we are all in this together.