>>> THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY IS THE FIRST IN THE NATION, AND A
POINT OF PRIDE HERE IN NEW ENGLAND.
BUT HOW DID IT BECOME THE FIRST PRIMARY, AND WHAT IS ITS
SIGNIFICANCE AND RELEVANCE IN THE NATIONAL RACE FOR PRESIDENT
IN THE 21st CENTURY?
I SAT DOWN WITH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND PROFESSOR OF HISTORY
JOHN BAICK TO DISCUSS THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY, AND THE
AFTERMATH OF THE DISASTROUS IOWA CAUCUS.
>> THE IRONY OF THIS IS FOR ALL OF THE CONCERNING CRITICISM OF
THE IOWA CAUCUSES AND ALL THE OTHER CONFUSION THE OTHER NIGHT
THE WHOLE POINT OF THE IOWA CAUCUS WAS TO BRING MORE
PARTICIPATION AND MORE TRANSPARENCY TO THE PROCESS.
THIS PHOSE BACK TO THE 1968 DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION
WHERE YOU HAD A CONVENTION IN CHAOS, INSIDE AND OUTSIDE AND
THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY, STATE BY STATE DECIDED LET'S CHANGE THIS.
IOWA WAS THE FIRST STATE TO DO THIS AND ACTUALLY NEW HAMPSHIRE
HAD BEEN CAMPING OUT DOING THIS SINCE THE 1950s.
IT WAS NEVER A CRUCIAL PART OF THE PROCESS, IT WAS MORE LIKE A
TESTING GROUND FOR CANDIDATES, BUT ONCE NEW HAMPSHIRE STAYED IN
PLACE AND IOWA BECAME THE NEW TRADITION, THEN THOSE TWO BECAME
THE 1-2 PUNCH.
BUT THIS IS REALLY ONLY A 50-YEAR-OLD TRADITION THAT
COALESCED IN THE 1980s AND '90s.
>> IN TERMS OF THAT THING THAT PUSHES THEM TO HELP THEM MAKE
THAT DECISION, SOMETIMES, IT MAY HAVE BEEN THAT BOSTON GLOBE
EDITORIAL WHERE THEY TYPICALLY WILL ENDORSE IN ADVANCE OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE, WHICH THIS YEAR WE KNOW THEY'RE NOT PLANNING TO DO,
THEY RELEASED AN EDITORIAL SAYING THEY THINK THE IOWA AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE DAYS OF GOING FIRST SHOULD STOP AND THEY MAKE
THE CASE USING DEMOGRAPHICS AND IF WE LOOK AT CENSUS DATA FOR
IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE, WE KNOW THAT THEY DON'T REALLY REFLECT
THE REST OF THE COUNTRY.
IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE ARE PREDOMINANTLY MADE UP OF WHITE
PEOPLE AND YOU DO HAVE SMALL PERCENTAGES OF HISPANIC,
AFRICAN-AMERICAN AND ASIAN AMERICAN VOTERS BUT THE
EDITORIAL IN THE GLOBE MAKES THE CASE THAT REALLY IT'S TIME TO
TAKE A LOOK AT THIS.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> THE GLOBE'S PIECE IS GOING TO BE PART OF A CHORUS I EXPECT OF
VOICES IN THE COMING MONTHS AND YEARS CALLING FOR A CHANGE.
BUT IT'S GOING TO DEPEND UPON THE TWO POLITICAL PARTIES AND
THEIR NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS.
THE TWO PARTIES ARE GOING TO HAVE TO KIND OF AGREE THAT THIS
MAKES SENSE BECAUSE IMAGINE THE CHAOS OF IOWA GOING FIRST FOR
DEMOCRATS AND NOT FOR REPUBLICANS OR VICE VERSA.
SO I EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME AT LEAST COSMETIC CHANGES GOING
FORWARD.
A LOT OF IT DEPENDS UPON HOW THIS ELECTION GOES.
IF THE ELECTION IS CLOSE YOU MAY NOT CHANGE ANYTHING IF THERE IS
EITHER A BLOWOUT EITHER DIRECTION, WINNING OR LOSING,
YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE PERHAPS A NEW POLITICAL PARTY.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY BECOMES THE
PARTY OF BERNIE SANDERS, FOR EXAMPLE, IN THE WAY THAT THE
REPUBLICAN PARTY HAS REALLY BECOME THE PARTY OF DONALD
TRUMP.
AND WHEN YOU HAVE THAT KIND OF CHANGEOVER, THEN YOU CAN PERHAPS
HAVE SOME CHANGE.
>> IN TERMS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SPECIFICALLY, HISTORY AND WHY IT
IS WHERE IT IS IN THE FIRST IN THE NATION PRIMARY.
>> AT THE TIME THAT NEW HAMPSHIRE EMERGED IT WAS
BASICALLY JUST TRYING TO RAISE ITS OWN POLITICAL PARTICIPATION,
PERHAPS RAISE ITS PROFILE, BUT IT WASN'T THE KINGMAKER PRIMARY,
NOT UNTIL IOWA DID IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TOGETHER WORK THAT
WAY.
PACK IN THE 1940s AND 50s, THE NEW HAMPSHIRE POLITICAL
ESTABLISHMENT SAID WE NEED TO HAVE THESE PRIMARIES.
LET'S BRING CANDIDATES UP FROM PLACES LIKE NEW YORK, FOR
EXAMPLE.
SO AN EARLY EXAMPLE OF THIS IS SOMEONE LIKE DWIGHT EISENHOWER.
EVERYONE KNEW THAT HE WAS A WAR HERO AND HE WAS FAMOUS, BUT WAS
HE A POLITICIAN?
AND HE HAD TO GO TO NEW HAMPSHIRE, AND HE HAD TO GO HAVE
COFFEE WITH PEOPLE AND HE HAD TO GO TO THESE CONVENTION CENTERS
AND MIDDLE SCHOOL GYMS AND TALK TO PEOPLE, AND HE PROVED HIMSELF
THERE.
NEW HAMPSHIRE IS ALSO WHERE PRESIDENT TRUMAN WHO COULD HAVE
RUN FOR REELECTION IN 1952, PRESIDENT TRUMAN DIDN'T CONNECT
VERY WELL IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE WERE LOOKING TO TURN THE PAGE AND IT
BASICALLY CONVINCED HIM, IF I CAN'T DO WELL IN NEW HAMPSHIRE,
I CAN'T RUN FOR MY PARTY ANYMORE.
LET SOMEONE ELSE GO FOR THIS.
>> WE'RE IN A VERY OUTSPOKEN TIME WHERE PEOPLE STAND UP FOR
CLIMATE CHANGE, FOR GUN CONTROL, FOR OTHER MATTERS THAT THEY FEEL
ARE OF CONCERN TO THEM THAT ARE NEAR AND DEAR.
WHY DO YOU THINK THIS IS AN ISSUE THAT WE HAVEN'T HEARD MORE
PEOPLE STANDING UP AND BEING VOCAL ABOUT?
ARE PEOPLE JUST NOT THAT INTERESTED IN THIS SORT OF
NITTY-GRITTY LEVEL OF POLITICS?
IS.
>> WILL WITH SOCIAL MEDIA, YOUR MEGAPHONE IS YOUR FEED, AND IT'S
VERY LOUD TO SOME PEOPLE, AND IT'S LOUD IF YOU WANT TO LISTEN
IN.
BUT IT'S VERY EASY TO TUNE THAT OUT.
AND WHEN IT COMES TO POLITICS, POLITICS IS A VERY COMPLICATED
AND OFTEN VERY BORING PROCESS.
IF TODAY'S 20-YEAR-OLDS WHO ARE PASSIONATELY ENGAGED IN POLITICS
ON SOCIAL MEDIA, IF THEY RUN FOR COUNCIL, IF THEY BECOME
DELEGATES, THEN WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A GROUNDSWELLING OF CHANGE,
BUT IF THEY SIMPLY MOVE ON TO OTHER THINGS, THEN WE'RE GOING
TO SEE A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME STRUCTURE OF POLITICS THAT
WE HAVE.
>> IN A FEW WAYS THE GLOBE ENVISIONED THIS CHANGE MIGHT
TAKE SHAPE I WANT TO HAVE US DIVE INTO A LITTLE BIT.
SO OBVIOUSLY, THERE WOULD PERHAPS BE MORE CHANGE.
THEY SAID QUOTE SOMETIMES, IT'S MORE IMPORTANT TO STAND UP FOR
WHAT'S RIGHT THAN WHAT'S IN ONE'S OWN INTEREST.
THEY SAID THEY USUALLY HAVE BEEN A KING OR QUEEN MAKER, THEY GET
TO HAVE THIS POSITION OF ROLLING OUT THIS EDITORIAL IN ADVANCE OF
NEW HAMPSHIRE.
BUT THEY PROPOSED THIS IDEA OF WE HAVE SUPER TUESDAY, I WOULD
CALL IT MAYBE MIGHTY MONDAY OR MINI MONDAY, SOMETHING LIKE
THAT, WHERE YOU WOULD HAVE TWO OTHER STATES THAT HAVE THE
DEMOGRAPHICS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE REST OF
THE COUNTRY STEP UP INSTEAD OF IOWA OR NEW HAMPSHIRE.
WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT SOMETHING LIKE THAT?
>> THE POSSIBILITY OF A TEST RUN OF BRINGING AN ILLINOIS ERA NEW
HAMPSHIRE FORWARD PUSHING THEM FORWARD AFTER IOWA AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE, BUT STILL EARLY ENOUGH IN THE PROCESS THAT IT
FORCES THE CANDIDATES TO PROVE THEMSELVES IN DIFFERENT
SETTINGS, I CAN SEE THAT HAPPENING.
BUT I CAN'T SEE A HUGE SHIFT.
AND THE PARTY REALLY CAN BE -- BOTH PARTIES CAN BE VERY
CONSERVATIVE IN THE SENSE THAT THEY DON'T WANT CHANGE.
IT'S VERY HARD TO PREDICT.
IT'S NOT JUST A QUESTION OF VESTED INTEREST.
IT'S A QUESTION OF DOING WHAT PEOPLE KNOW AND THEY UNDERSTAND.
PEOPLE HANDLE THINGS IN A WAY THAT THEY'VE HANDLED FOR A
GENERATION AND IT'S HARD TO THINK OF ANYTHING ELSE, BUT THEN
AGAIN, WE COULD BE SITTING HERE IN A FEW YEARS AND WONDERING WHY
WE HAD IOWA IN THE FIRST PLACE.
IT JUST DOESN'T MAKE SENSE ANYMORE.
>> WHY DOESN'T EVERYONE JUST GO AT THE SAME TIME AND WE WOULDN'T
HAVE ANY OF THIS JOCKEYING AND THE CONFUSION THAT SOMETIMES
TAKES PLACE?
>> I THINK BOTH PARTIES MIGHT BE WORRIED ABOUT THAT BECAUSE THEN
THAT BECOMES A QUESTION OF MONEY.
YOU CAN SEE SOMEONE LIKE STEYER AND SOMEONE LIKE BLOOMBERG, YOU
CAN BUY ATTENTION.
I DON'T THINK YOU CAN TRULY BUY NOMINATION AT THIS STAGE, BUT
YOU CAN GET YOUR FOOT IN THE DOOR.
YOU CAN BE SOMEONE WITH FIVE OR 10% RECOGNITION SIMPLY ON THE
BASIS OF YOUR COMMERCIALS AND THERE'S ENOUGH BILLIONAIRES OUT
THERE WHO WOULD SAY IF WE JUST HAD HAD ONE DAY, THEN A
BILLIONAIRE COULD DISRUPT EVERYTHING.
MICHAEL BLOOMBERG IS GOING TO DO VERY WELL ON SUPER TUESDAY,
REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF PRIMARIES
BECAUSE HE HAS SPENT THAT KIND OF MONEY.
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