THE SITUATION IN VENEZUELA CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE.
AND THE POLITICAL CONFLICT THERE HAS CAUSED MORE THAN THREE
MILLION PEOPLE TO FLEE.
THE MAN RECOGNIZED BY THE UNITED STATES AND 50 OTHER COUNTRIES AS
VENEZUELA'S INTERIM PRESIDENT JUAN GUAIDO FAILED TO BRING
ABOUT A MILITARY UPRISING EARLIER THIS WEEK TO OUST THE
EMBATTLED PRESIDENT MADURO.
THIS AS THEY DEAL WITH FOOD SHORTAGES, BLACK-OUTS, AND A
LACK OF MEDICINE AND CLEAN WATER.
>> CARRIE SALDO SAT DOWN WITH ANDY REITER TO LEARN MORE.
>> HIS HOPE WAS TO CONVINCE ENOUGH PEOPLE IN THE MILITARY TO
DEFECT TO HIS SIDE.
IT WAS A GAMBLE.
HE DID SOME KIND OF PRESENTATIONS ON MEDIA WITH SOME
MILITARY PEOPLE NEXT TO HIM TO TRY TO PORTRAY THAT HE HAD THEM
BEHIND THEM IN HOPES TO GET THE MILITARY TO SWING TO HIS SIDE.
IT DIDN'T WORK.
HE DIDN'T HAVE ENOUGH MILITARY PEOPLE WITH HIM AT THE BEGINNING
AND GAMBLED THAT HE WOULD HOPE THE REST OF THE MILITARY WOULD
DEFECT.
THEY DID NOT SO HE WAS SORT OF LEFT WITH JUST MORE PROTESTS AND
NO REAL CHANGE.
AND IN AN INTERVIEW AFTERWARDS HE SAID WE JUST DIDN'T HAVE
ENOUGH MILITARY GUYS.
THAT'S HIS BIG THING TO CONVINCE THE MILITARY TO COME TO HIS
SIDE.
SO FAR HE'S NOT BEEN ABLE TO DO THAT.
>> IF HE WAS ABLE TO DO THAT WOULD THAT TURN THE TIDE IN
VENEZUELA?
>> DEFINITELY THE MILITARY CONTROLS THE FATE.
IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO DO.
ONE THING MADURO DID IS HE PLACED THE MILITARY IN CHARGE OF
ALMOST ALL THE MINISTRIES AND THE STATE OWNED OIL COMPANY,
THEY CONTROL THE FOOD SUPPLY AND FOOD DISTRIBUTION NETWORK.
>> THEY HAVE NO REASON TO DEFECT?
>> NO REASON TO DEFECT.
>> IN THE MEANTIME YOU HAVE ALL OF THESE PEOPLE WHO ARE
SUFFERING, 3.5 MILLION VENEZUELANS HAVE LEFT.
>> YES.
>> WHICH IS A TRAGEDY.
>> YES.
IT'S TERRIBLE.
I MEAN, YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT 10% OF THE POPULATION HAS LEFT THE
COUNTRY.
ALSO, WHAT COMES ALONG WITH HYPER INFLATION, ALL THESE
ECONOMIC PROBLEMS.
YOU HAVE NO MEDICINE, NO HOSPITALS, FOOD SHORTAGES, AND
CRIME IS ON THE RISE.
LAST YEAR, VENEZUELA HAD THE HIGHEST MURDER RATE IN THE
WORLD.
IT'S BECOMING PRETTY DESPERATE.
THE U.N. SAYS IT'S A HUMANITARIAN CATASTROPHE.
BECAUSE OF POLITICS NOT A LOT OF AID IS GETTING INTO THE COUNTRY
TO HELP.
>> GADE HAS BEEN RECOGNIZED BY THE U.S. AND MANY, MANY OTHER
COUNTRIES.
>> OVER 50.
>> AS THE LEADER OF THE COUNTRY.
OF COURSE, MADURO IS RECOGNIZED BY RUSSIA AND CHINA, WHICH IS
NOT A SURPRISE.
>> YES.
>> DEFINITELY NOT A SURPRISE.
YOU'RE SEEING A GREAT POWER CONFLICT PLAY OUT TO SOME EXTENT
PLAY OUT IN VENEZUELA.
MADURO REFUSED TO TAKE U.S. HUMANITARIAN AID WHICH IS
SITTING IN BRAZIL, IN COLOMBIA, BUT HE WON'T LET IT OVER BUT
THEN CHINA AND RUSSIA HAVE SENT 5ID WHICH HE ACCEPTED.
RUSSIA HAS SENT A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILITARY ADVISERS TO
HELP KEEP MADURO ON HIS SIDE AND CRACK DOWN ON PROEMPTS.
YOU'RE HAVING BIG TENSION BETWEEN THE TWO.
IT'S KIND OF PUTIN POKING TRUMP A LITTLE BIT BY CREATING A
DISTURBANCE IN HIS OWN BACKYARD.
>> THE U.S. HAS IMPOSED SANCTIONS BUT THEY HAVE ALSO
SAID, SOME TOP LEADERS HAVE SAID ALL OPTIONS ARE ON THE TABLE
WHICH MAKES YOU WONDER ABOUT MILITARY OPTIONS.
>> I DON'T THINK IT WOULD BE A MILITARY INVASION.
VENEZUELA IS TWICE AS BIG AS IRAQ AND THE TERRAIN IS
TERRIBLE.
THE MILITARY IS FAIRLY LARGE.
AND IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO LAUNCH AN INVASION WHERE U.S.
PEOPLE WOULD DIE.
U.S. SERVICE PEOPLE WOULD DIE.
I DON'T THINK THAT WOULD WORK BUT THE THREAT OF THE INVASION
IS THERE TO TRY TO MAKE THE MILITARY IN VENEZUELA THINK IT
MIGHT HAPPEN AND THEN DEFECT TO GUAIDO.
THAT'S THE WHOLE IDEA AND TO MAKE THE RUSSIANS AND CHINESE
THINK THE U.S. WOULD DO SOMETHING.
I DON'T THINK THE U.S. WOULD INVADE.
THAT BEING SAID, PART OF THE REASON IS IT'S NOT A DIRECT
SECURITY THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES RIGHT NOW.
IT WOULD BE HARD TO CONVINCE THE U.S. POPULATION TO SUPPORT
SOMETHING LIKE THAT BUT JUST YESTERDAY, VICE PRESIDENT MIKE
PENCE HAS COME OUT AND SAID THAT VENEZUELA IS NOW HARBORING
HEZBOLLAH.
A TERRORIST GROUP SUPPORTED BY IRAN SO THEN IT STARTS TO BECOME
A SECURITY THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES.
HE SAID IT'S A FAILED STATE AND WE KNOW WHAT HAPPENS IN FAILED
STATES.
TERRORISTS GO THERE.
SO WE MIGHT START SEEING THE ADMINISTRATION TALK ABOUT MORE
JUSTIFICATION FOR INTERVENTION IF IT'S A DIRECT THREAT TO THE
UNITED STATES SECURITY.
>> WHEN YOU GO BACK AND LOOK AT VENEZUELA'S HISTORY, IT WAS AT
ONE TIME THE RICHEST COUNTRY IN LATIN AMERICA.
>> YES. >> AND NOW YOU HAVE ROLLING
BLACK-OUTS AND FOOD SHORTAGES.
YOU HAVE JUST COMPLETE CHAOS, AND YOU LOOK AT CHAVEZ AND NOW
MADURO AND YOU LOOK AT A SOCIALIST REGIME REALLY WITH A
DICTATOR IN CHARGE.
PEOPLE WILL SAY, THAT IS JUST A RECIPE FOR DISASTER.
>> YES.
ONE OF THE PROBLEMS, WHICH CHAVEZ PROMISED, ALL THESE
SOCIAL SERVICES TO HIS SUPPORTERS AND HE PROVIDED THEM
BUT HE COULDN'T PAY FOR THEM SO HE TOOK OUT A LOT OF DEBT IN
ORDER TO PAY FOR THESE GOODS THAT HE GAVE TO THESE PEOPLE TO
SUPPORT HIM AND GET ELECTED BUT THAT WAS SOMETHING THAT WAS NOT
SUSTAINABLE.
THE GOVERNMENT WENT INTO HUGE DEBT TO DO THIS AND AT THE SAME
TIME, WE SAW OIL PRICES D CONSIDERABLY DROP.
BEFORE ELECTIONS HE WOULD GIVE OUT BENEFITS BUT IT WASN'T
SOMETHING HE COULD AFFORD AND THEN IT CAME TO LIGHT AND WE'RE
SEEING THE ECONOMIC CRISIS.
>> I KNOW YOU'RE A PROFESSOR.
DOES THIS COMING UP IN CONVERSATION.
I KNOW MANY MILLENNIALS FAVOR SOCIALISM AND WILL SAY, MEDICARE
FOR ALL OR FREE COLLEGE TUITION.
DOES VENEZUELA EVER COMING UP IN CONVERSATION IN THE CONTEXT OF
YOUR CLASSROOM?
>> TO SOME EXTENT.
THERE ARE SOME VENEZUELAN STUDENTS AT HOLYOKE.
BUT IT MAINLY COMES UP AS A WAY TO NOT GIVE THOSE BENEFITS OUT.
YOU HAVE AN AUTHORITARIAN LEADER WHO DOES IT ON HIS OWN WE.
THERE IS TONS OF CORRUPTION SO IT'S NOT LIKE A LEGISLATURE,
IT'S NOT LIKE VOTING FOR SOME SORT OF POLICY.
IT WAS REALLY UNILATERAL STUFF TO BUY VOTES AND MOST WOULD
AGREE THAT'S NOT THE WAY TO PROVIDE BIG THINGS LIKE
HEALTHCARE AND EDUCATION.
>> ALL OF THE COUNTRIES IN SOUTH AMERICA WILL BE NERVOUS ABOUT
THIS GOING ON.
>> YES.
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE PRETTY DESTABILIZING.
WE MENTIONED EARLIER THE NUMBER OF MINORITY LEAVING VENEZUELA.
OVER A MILLION ARE IN COLOMBIA AND WE'VE SEEN ELSEWHERE IN THE
WORLD IT'S VERY DIFFICULT.
IT'S EXPENSIVE.
IT'S PROBLEMATIC TO HOST THOSE PEOPLE, PROVIDE GOODS FOR THOSE
PEOPLE.
AND IT COULD DEFINITELY BE DESTABILIZING FOR THE REGION IN
OTHER COUNTRIES.
>> WHAT DO YOU THINK THE WAY OUT IS?
I DON'T KNOW THAT EUROPEAN COUNTRIES -- THERE ARE GROUPS
THAT WOULD LIKE TO HAVE FREE ELECTIONS SOON.
BUT COULD YOU REALLY HOLD ELECTIONS IN A SITUATION LIKE
THIS?
>> I WISH I HAD A CRYSTAL BALL TO TELL US THE WAY OUT.
I THINK GOING BACK TO YOUR EARLIER POINT OF THE MILITARY.
THAT'S THE KEY.
IF THE MILL DEFECTS AND DECIDES TO ARREST MADURO AND SEND HIM
OFF TO CUBA YOU COULD SEE ELECTIONS FAIRLY QUICKLY.
VENEZUELA WAS A DEMOCRACY THROUGH MOST OF THE COLD WAR AND
WAS ONE OF THE COUNTRIES IN THE REGION THAT WAS SEEN AS A BEACON
OF HOPE AND IT WASN'T A MILITARY DICTATORSHIP SO THEY DO HAVE A
STRONG HISTORY OF ELECTIONS AND VOTING.
IF SOMEHOW THERE WAS A TRANSITION FACILITATED BY THE
MILITARY, THERE COULD BE ELECTIONS AND IT COULD TURN INTO
A STRONGER DEMOCRACY.
>> HOW WOULD THEY -- GUAIDO WAS NOT ABLE TO GET TO THE MILITARY,
HE HAS OTHER PEOPLE MAYBE TRYING TO REROUTE THAT BUT DOES HE MAKE
A SECOND ATTEMPT?
>> I THINK THERE WILL BE LOTS OF ATTEMPTS.
THERE ARE BACK ATTEMPTS RIGHT NOW.
THEY ARE MEETING WITH MEMBERS OF THE MILITARY TO TRY TO GET
PEOPLE TO DEFECT.
THE UNITED STATES IS HELPING IN THIS.
ONE OF THE KEY MEMBERS OF THE MILITARY CAME OUT IN SUPPORT OF
GUAIDO AND THEN THE U.S. REMOVED THE SANCTIONS ON HIM AS A REWARD
FOR DOING SO.
THERE WILL BE ALL THIS STUFF GOING ON TO CONVINCE ENOUGH OF
THE MILITARY AND ONCE WE GET TO A TIPPING POINT IT WILL HAPPEN
VERY QUICKLY BUT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE, I THINK, TO CONVINCE THE
MILITARY TO MOVE.
>> IN THE MEANTIME YOU HAVE A LOT OF PEOPLE SUFFERING.
>> YES.
>> PEOPLE DON'T HAVE FOOD, DON'T HAVE MEDICINE.
>> THAT COULD BE ONE OF THE THINGS, IF IT GETS SO BAD THAT
THE POPULATION HAS AN UPRISING MORE THAN NOW AND IF IT GETS TO
BE SO BIG WE COULD SEE THE MILITARY REALIZE THAT MADURO
WILL BE OVERTHROWN ANYWAY AND BE THE ONE WHO DOES IT ANYWAY, WHAT
RECENTLY HAPPENED IN SUDAN.
WE SAW THE MILITARY REMOVE THE DICTATOR TO STOP THE UPRISING
FROM TAKING THEM OUT, TOO.