The future is unknown.
Not just for you,
but for society.
When we look at how technology unfolds we can be pretty accurate about
tomorrow or next week.
And as the writer William Gibson said, "The future is already here -
it's just not very evenly distributed."
So based on small patches of current innovation we might be able to
accurately guess at aspects of the next five, or ten,
or even twenty years.
But beyond that,
as we get further and further from today, the more the possibilities
begin to multiply.
A simple projection diverges to become a tree of possibility...
A possibili-tree!
Ah, hmm, no, sorry.
The best way we can see long-term forecasting at work
is to cheat.
Let's wind the clock back to last century.
Lots of smart people made well thought out predictions
of where we'd be beyond 2000.
Flying cars and jet packs for all,
autonomous humanoid robots,
cities on the moon,
and lots and lots
of free time.
They were dead wrong.
At the same time other smart people made even crazier technology predictions,
which don't seem quite so crazy now.
Small, orbiting, rocket-propelled space stations
that would be the basis of a worldwide communications network.
People wouldn't just need a computer -
they would hold them in their hands.
And the people with the computers would use the communications network
to share information.
And so with a little hindsight, we can see that foresight is not an easy
business.
Futurist Jim Dator said,
"Any useful idea about the future should appear to be ridiculous."
It doesn't mean that the future is a laugh a minute. He's actually saying that
unless your idea is so challenging and out there,
compared to the way things are today,
it simply isn't futuristic enough.
So let's test this out and imagine a ridiculous but actually possible future proposed by
Computer Scientist John Storrs-Hall.
"It's a chair
it's a car,
it's a prehensile monkey tail!
New from Drextek, it's utility fog!
Powered by a swarm of tiny remote control robots -
create, levitate, manipulate, teleport and
shape shift.
Just like magic only it's one hundred percent nanotechnology.
Utility fog has no self replicating human harming or world-leading capabilities."
As a rule we're not very good at thinking about the impacts of new technologies.
We imagine a technology will nicely and neatly
solve problem A,
but conveniently forget it may worsen situation B,
produce new opportunity C,
and create an entirely new problem, D.
So rather than just think about a future with utility fog as a big
indigestible lump -
let's instead look at it through a series of filters.
And in so doing, hopefully see new opportunities and new impacts we might
otherwise have missed.
If there is 'tech' this
sophisticated,
it's a pretty good chance it would mean no limits on resources or supply.
Which could remove industries like agriculture, mining,
processing and traditional manufacturing.
This would dramatically effect employment,
education, retailing and services.
Nano-computing will also further increase options for communication and
surveillance.
Impacting relationships,
safety and security.
Utility fog could well offer cleaner technologies and reduce waste.
It could rehabilitate huge areas of the environment previously turned over to industry.
But would you then value the wonders of nature
if utility fog could do just as well,
if not better.
And what becomes of artists or craftspeople when we can all make such things?
But just because you can make unicorns may not mean everyone can.
What if utility fog is a little expensive and it divides the world into rich
nano-tech wizards
and poor, ordinary-tech muggles?
And does that imply that all the people, rich or poor, are then at the mercy
of the owners and programmers
of utility fog?
But let's not forget You the individual.
Would utility fog change who you are and what you do?
What if it could change your clothes,
improve your health, reshape your body,
or your face?
And what if nano-computing could allow all the possibilities of utility fog
to be controlled with just a thought?
Would change how you think
and what you believe?
Would you think that you were playing god?
Would it affect your self image?
Would you even know who you were
and what was real?
Well utility fog is just one person's idea of what might be possible.
But the future is not laid out in front of us, it's created as we go.
By you, me
and them.
Do you want that future?
If you think through the possibilities of a new technology, you can better
appreciate the consequences of using it.