yes welcome back everybody to altcoin daily where you subscribe for one video
per day demystifying this cryptocurrency market my name's austin in today's video
we're going to look at five different charts the bitcoinmeir multiple the current premium on gbtc
the pool multiple meaning what the miners are doing as well as some technical analysis all to
determine is now a good time to buy bitcoin or if not now when so like always check the time stamps
down below in the video description and let's jump in starting with our first metric out of five
the bitcoin mayor multiple introduced by trace mayor as a way to gauge the current price of
bitcoin against its long-range historical price movements ie 200-day moving average
the mayor multiple highlights when bitcoin is overbought or oversold in the context of longer
time frames the mayor multiple is calculated by dividing the current bitcoin price by the 200-day
moving average of that price so we see the yellow is bitcoin's price through history and of course
we see big peaks and big valleys indicating is the current price of bitcoin overbought
or oversold and you can see the mere multiple is getting less volatile over time it is worth noting
as the market becomes larger and less volatile the peaks are becoming less exaggerated this is
because a 200-day moving average baseline is a statistic yardstick against an ever-growing more
stable bitcoin market so you as an individual always have to keep that calibration in mind
meaning this metric probably is never gonna get back to those highs ultra highs and ultra lows
of those peaks and valleys so let's get to it what is the current metric telling us right now with
the bitcoin price around forty one thousand dollars the current mayor multiple is 0.86
and historically anything under a 2.4 has been an historically good buy
why 2.4 well simulations performed by trace mayor determine that in the past the best
long-term results were achieved by accumulating bitcoin whenever the mere multiple was below 2.4
since these simulations were based on historical data they are purely educational and should
not be the basis of any financial decision so here is the chart this line represents
2.4 and anything historically whenever the bitcoin price has been under a 2.4 percent mere multiple
that was historically a great time to buy and what do you notice you notice that most times
in bitcoin's history was a great time to buy in fact the average mayor multiple since the creation
of bitcoin was 1.42 the mayor multiple has also historically been higher than today's value 0.86
78 of the time so this is telling us that bitcoin's a great value right now it's saying the
market is oversold for bitcoin so i encourage you to give me your thoughts on this metric down below
do you like it do you put a lot of credence into it or do you want to see other metrics
this is just one a five today so let's keep moving next up what about the miners well to answer that
let's look at the pool multiple or 12 multiple however you pronounce it the pool multiple graph
is showing the relation between the btc mined in a day expressed in us dollars and the 365-day simple
moving average now if that still doesn't make sense let's dig into it puel multiple explained
the powell multiple is a market metric for estimating the level of cell pressure in the
market coming from miners historically mining revenue primarily consisted of block subsidies
awarded to a miner for finding a block so as you know the last bitcoin won't be mined for
over a hundred years and about every 10 minutes a block gets mined and those miners get a little
bit of bitcoin as a reward the usd value of that reward of that subsidy changes on a daily basis
as the price of bitcoin changes traders found it useful to consider the value of the block subsidy
to determine what sorts of pressures miners faced to sell these rewards to continue operations
since four sellers in the market tend to bring down price so obviously the miners are running
a business eventually after they get that mining reward they do plan to sell and to better gauge
that potential cell pressure enter analyst david puel the issue with only looking at
daily minor revenue is that it does not tell you how healthy that revenue is over a period of time
so powell developed the 12 multiple right because miners don't usually sell that day
bitcoin miners are actually pretty in tune with the market and historically they have
shown to wait till bull markets wait until bullish price action so how is it calculated
well it's calculated by taking the miner's revenue meaning that the daily coin issuance they get plus
the fees because miners also take fees divided by the previous year's daily moving average of
the miner's revenue and it just tells us are the miners more incentivized to sell or are they more
incentivized to hodl so what is this telling us first off the puel multiple ranges anywhere from
0 all the way to 20. there is no magic number to tell us oh after it gets past this certain number
that's when they have the ultimate cell pressure it's always just a range for example back in 2016
and 2017 that run up from 1k to 20k it's not like the coin issuance per block changed at all same
amount of bitcoin got awarded with every block but as the network became more popular not only did
the fees per transaction go up but as the value of each bitcoin just generally went up as more people
bought putting that into context comparison over the last 365 days for miners that was
cell pressure that was clear cell pressure back in 2019 as well as back in march of 2021 we saw
cell pressure as well it got up to i would say three 3.5 maybe back in 2019 got right up past
over two right now the pool multiple is seeing lower lows and lower lows it is sitting under one
meaning that right now bitcoin miners are incentivized to huddle the cell pressure that
we may have seen six 12 months ago we are not seeing today that's telling us that's a bullish
signal for the market the 12 multiple could always get lower anything could always get lower but
again you are never going to get the exact bottoms best thing to do is dollar cost average in on the
way down and then sell dollar cost average out on the way up that's my move and next up we just went
over two relatively bullish metrics now let's move on to a metric that's unfortunately still flashing
bearish the grayscale bitcoin trust gbtc this is a trust that buys the bitcoin it's a ticker in
the stock market and then institutional investors or just wall street investors can then buy shares
in that trust they buy the bitcoin they'll custody it for you they'll do all the hard stuff all you
have to do is buy shares in that trust now when there's huge demand for gbtc we see a premium on
its value and when we're seeing a lack of demand we see a discount on that gbtc looking at the
average over the last five years there's usually a premium there's an average of about a 24 premium
on the ticker so what are we seeing today well right now the gbtc premium is at a negative 26
meaning that's a huge discount for wall street investors if you buy bitcoin through grayscale
actually that means if you buy at least four bitcoin you would essentially receive the
fifth one free if you got a 26 discount on each of those bitcoin outrageous discount
so this is obviously bearish if investors aren't willing to buy at this huge discount what makes
you think they'd be willing to buy at spot price now again not the end-all be-all metric we want
to take all of these into consideration and more importantly come back to these come back in two
weeks come back in four weeks check back in and see how the market is trending so let's keep these
metrics on our radar and i will say that if you're looking for the cheapest place to buy bitcoin
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10 worth of crypto you receive a free coin link down below take advantage let's go over our final
chart for bitcoin looking at basic ta bitcoin's simple moving average over the last 1 400 days
or four years so the four year moving average which we don't have a lot of data but historically
even in the most bearish of times this has acted as strong support for the bitcoin price
so just to clue everybody in what is this metric you would take the daily price of
an asset bitcoins price on day one day two day three whatever over the total amount of days
you're averaging so let's say we want to calculate the sma price for bitcoin for three days you take
the closing price of bitcoin over those days and divide it by three i.e the number of days
pretty self-explanatory but next question why are we taking the simple moving average of 1458 days
why four years well the period of four years is important with bitcoin because this is the period
between two halvings a block is mined every 10 minutes and a halving happens every 210 000
blocks which equals about 1458 days and of course havings have a huge impact on price because if you
cut in half the supply faucet of the amount of coins coming into the market
that's a huge supply shock it obviously affects the price the history of the simple moving
average 1458 day indicator has proven to show a very reliable support for the bitcoin price
okay so what is this telling us well first off just know that this is more applicable not day
to day or even week to week but they say when in doubt zoom out and this is that this is a
longer term time frame metric right now the four year moving average is sitting around a 20 000
bitcoin so even though the price of bitcoin is sitting at around 41 000 if the work should
happen if we go into a recession if markets tank throughout the rest of this year it's nice to know
that this isn't 5k it's not 1k the simple moving average over the last four years 20 000 bucks
not that much farther down and just looking historically we've rarely touched this moving
average but it was a nice indicator of support of a bottom where we bounced back up where we
touched bounced back up touched bounced back up and that's twenty thousand dollars for us so
give me your thoughts on this down below but let's keep moving that is the video my name's
austin like always see you tomorrow and be sure to join us at bitcoinmiami 2022 the largest
bitcoin conference in existence coming up from april 6th through 9th i will be there hopefully
you will be there and if you want 10 off your tickets use code altcoin daily link down below