Was this a unanimous decision? Well, of course,
as expected and the percentage of the government wanted lower rates, so it's
not surprising. But other than that, it's unanimous.
OK. How much more do you think you'll have
to go? Well, we keep saying is that dependent?
But the likelihood of zero in the next two meetings perforce
extremely low. So I limited my round five and a half
percent and inflation's at at 8 percent. The other central banks this week,
Governor, have told at least have told the markets and the press that there
might be a need in terms of being restrictive to take actually the policy
rate above their own inflation rate. Do you see the need to do that in the
Philippines? Take your policy rate above where
inflation is. No, because the reason we're way above
the inflation target are supply chefs that we expect to win.
And. Our own forecast is that inflation will
be back to 2 to 4 percent by the third or fourth quarter of next year.
So. So in other words, what we have to do is
do more to make sure that that happens, we we've done.
In that sense, we have done enough. But we have not done enough because.
We really do not expect, for instance, the Fed to Lucy it all right.
And then in addition to that, I think inflation expectations as shown by our
survey of private forecasters. Is higher than our own forecasts.
So we have to do. So maybe you have to do some more to
win. Yes.
They should replace it. That's what I.
Right. The race about the governor.
Historically, they've historically. They do that.
They did. They do.
Eventually the IBEX. Therefore, at best.
And they see that that's quite the anaesthetic.
And hopefully we have to leave. We have a winner.
Yes. Yeah.
And that's all I was about to ask you then.
Yes. Well, what what what do you think is
your neutral? Is there a neutral rate that you're
looking at right now? Beyond which, of course, things become
restrictive and hopefully people that put these surveys in.
Start listening because it doesn't seem, Governor, the inflate the inflation data
is listening. Well, the reason, of course, is the
month on month inflation so far is not consistent with if you want to play it
by twelve a then nine. That consistent with the four.
So I think what will convince them is the moment they see that the month by
month inflation on returned to five point four in three point four percent
for a month. And our forecast is that will happen
because the Fed initially we said year on year will
peak in October. Then
it turned out November was hired in October.
And now we expect December to be higher than in November.
So. So we have actually revised our forecast
of when the inflation will peak. But that's largely because of weather
showed the use of fruits and vegetables. So
on the other end of the week, peso is no longer the
problem. And we are also seeing fuel prices, fuel
prices go down. So that's why we're confident that
relative to our forecast of what inflation will be
three to four quarters from now. Our policy rates and policy rates will
already clearly positive.
But then maybe we have to do more to convince markets that how serious you
are about bringing down, making sure that
inflation will be back to normal by the second
half of this year. And that doesn't have any equipment.
That's very, very important to us, right?
As you mentioned, Governor, you mentioned the currency, which you're
correct. I mean, it's strengthened recently.
So it hasn't been as much of a complication compared to much.
What I want to ask you then is David Yvonne Man.
He's an active. You're no longer on the currency market.
We we're still there, but that. We sometimes by example, we're selling.
And like The Bachelor, naturally, me or selling.
OK, so now we we that now it can go both ways.
Which is what we like. OK, now let's let's look at next year.
These things can change month to month, as you point out.
It doesn't seem like inflation from October to November to November to
December, maybe January. That's short term.
It's very hard to gauge because things are fluid.
If inflation, if you're correct and inflation falls back to range around
this time next year, would you be prepared to cut rates as soon as you
possibly can? Well, it depends and it depends on how
the global economy is going, because one scenario is that
global financial markets will remain very tight.
Because what he says, I think that that is the forecast of Larry Summers, he
says. So if you take that scenario, then maybe
it will be premature to say that. We'll be cutting, say, in the in the
third or fourth quarter of next year. So this is these are highly uncertain
times. Normally.
And that's why it's very hard to say what we will do.
Yes. Just six months away.
It's nuts. It's not that easy to say what we'll do.