- Hey thanks for joining me.
Today I'm gonna take a look at some Model 3 data
and figure out how much are people willing to pay
for all the different parts of the world.
So stay tuned for that coming up.
Hey thanks for joining me,
I'm Ben Sullins and this is Teslanomics,
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Let's dive into the data now about the Model 3 budgets.
Model3tracker.info is a great place
to enter your data and get estimates
about your Model 3 reservation.
It also helps people like me,
who then use that data to do analysis and look at
the market in a broader context.
I'll show you how Model 3 tracker works
so you can see where I'm getting my data,
then I'm gonna dive in and show you some analysis I did.
Here we are on model3tracker.info,
and if you don't have a login
you can go register one right there.
For me, if you already have one,
after you do that, you go ahead and log in.
You get to the dashboard here,
and there's a lot going on on this page.
But basically, what you get is essentially some stats
about the tracker itself.
You can see that we're almost at 8,000 records
and 10,000 different people have actually created accounts.
And down below you have some interesting stats
and you have stuff about overall what the community
has put in in terms of the upgrades
and nearly bare bones and autopilot and self-driving
and all these different features that you can choose,
as well as the Model 3 reservation tally down below.
All of this data here is collected
by you entering a record.
When you go, you can click add new record,
or if you already have one and maybe you need to update
or change your mind about something,
you can go do so by clicking on your record
and then the vehicle.
Here is where you enter your information,
and it talks about the region you're in,
the country, the city, et cetera,
as well as, are you an existing owner
and how did you make a reservation.
But the most interesting stuff, I feel,
is down when you go to your configuration,
so you can see what the options are.
The guys that built this website have a pricing model
that they've developed,
and it's based on Model S pricing with some other stuff
that's using historical averages and those things.
But you go through and you choose all the options
that you want.
You can see I actually prefer mine fairly straight forward
with the exception of a couple upgrades.
And then down at the bottom you get to enter your budget.
Now this is the data we're gonna be looking at today.
Your budget versus your estimate.
Now, not all of the data has it in USD
so I had to do some conversions
but I'll explain that when we get there.
Once you have your entry
and you have your data in model3tracker.info,
I, and other folks as well,
can go in and do an export of that data.
So once you export that data, you get it in Excel,
and then from there I use Tableau software,
which is a data analysis tool I've been using for years,
to actually dig in and explore the data.
It's kind of a fun way to look at the data
and see what it's trying to say.
Let's switch over here to Tableau
where I have my Model 3 budgets estimate dashboard.
On this dashboard I have a lot going on.
There's several different charts here,
and in the top left to start what I have
are the median budget by country.
When you look at this dashboard
you have the color coded countries here,
which have the median budgets.
I use median because it filters out any kind of
noise in the data, any kind of really high
or really low estimates or anything like that.
Then on the right you have a histogram.
I like to think of this as a distribution.
What you see, each bar in this bar chart
are the number of people that have their budget,
and I've converted all of these to USD.
What I did is, let's say you were in South Africa,
I looked up the currency for South Africa
and then I got, as of last week,
the conversion rate to USD.
That way when I color code this, it's all commensurate.
We're all using the same kind of metric and it's USD.
That's how I got actually those numbers
to do the coloring of the map.
Now on the histogram, what you see are bins.
Each bin, you can kind of tell by the bottom here,
are about $5,000 bins or ranges.
When you see a USD budget of 40k or that bin,
and you see 100 people that have put in
that's basically where their budget falls in,
what you're getting is 40 to 45,000.
These are $5,000 bins.
And you can see the overall, for all of Earth
or all the entries that we have,
everybody is really between $45,000 and $55,000.
I'm guessing that most people are gonna come in
closer to the $55,000 range, but that's just my speculation
so don't take my word for that.
This histogram just shows you, this is your distribution.
It's a typical thing we do in statistical analysis
where you see the normal distribution of things,
the normal bell curve.
So then down below I thought, okay,
we're looking at the median budget by country
and the overall distribution so we can get an idea
about maybe what people are going to pay,
but what about the estimate.
When you fill out your data,
what you have is all of the features that you're choosing.
And what I wanted to see is,
how does your budget compare to the pricing model,
essentially for model3tracker.info,
and is there a big gap there.
You can see down here if you look at Sweden, for example,
they have a healthy, about $4,000 difference,
which means that on median, they are estimating
that they're gonna pay around $56,000 USD.
The median estimate for Sweden is only at $52,000.
Most likely they'll be pleasantly surprised.
They probably won't go too far over that, if at all.
Then, as you go down this list,
what you can see is all the way at the bottom,
folks in Portugal, and granted
there's only four entries here
so it's not a really robust population or sample.
There are $45,000 for the median estimate,
but only 24,000 for the median budget.
So that means that a lot of people are gonna be upset,
because there's about a $20,000 gap there.
Who knows, again, if we had much more data
I'm sure a lot of these numbers wouldn't be so dramatic.
But because we don't have a ton,
and that's part of why I'm doing this video
is to get you, if you're in Portugal
or any of these other places.
And I've only listed ones here where I have entries.
So I don't have a lot of them.
When you go there you can enter those things
and they'll pop up here.
And then we'll update this data as we go.
I wanted to show you how to make it
a bit more interactive too.
Let's say that I'm in Europe
and I get maybe about 15 to 20% of the people
watching these videos are from Europe.
I can go to my map and I can click on the little icon there
and start typing Europe.
I can then click on that
and it automatically zooms in for me.
So then I'm zoomed in.
Now I can get a much better sense of
wherever you are at in the world,
whatever region you are in, or you can search for
a specific country as well,
then I can actually click on these things.
Let's say I click on Norway.
And you can see that the histogram to the right,
the distribution updated, as well as the chart down below.
When I uncheck that it removes the filter.
I wanted to make this interactive and a bit more interesting
than just looking at a couple different charts,
especially since, when you go back to the worldview
of the map, it's really hard to see like,
what is this one, that's New Zealand,
this is Virgin Islands.
You also can directly click on any of these.
Let's say I wanted to click on the United States.
It'll also filter and update the vis as well.
So the last piece, there's two more things for interactive
and ways to use this.
One is to go up to the regions in the top right,
and you can actually filter that out.
If I wanted to go down to just North America
I can click on that.
And this one is interesting
because when you filter using this, the color changes.
If you recall when I had all here,
Canada was blue because they had a low estimate, 39,000.
But when I remove everything except North America,
there's only three countries to compare here.
They're actually much closer to the United States
and Mexico than the rest of the world.
A couple different ways to interact with your data there.
And then down below you can do the same.
If I wanna click on United States down here
you'll se it'll update the map instantly
as well as the histogram.
So there you have it.
My budget analysis of the Model 3 data.
My guess, most people are gonna pay around $55,000 USD.
If you disagree or you don't have your data in there
and you wanna help us do this analysis,
please go to model3tracker.info,
enter your options, your budgets, your location,
and then we'll come back and revisit this.
I have a few more takes on this data
that I want to present to you coming up soon.
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Thanks again for watching
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