The release of James Cameron's Avatar 2 is right around the corner, and with it's big marketing
campaign also not too far away, I thought I'd discuss the question that many people have
been debating online for quite some time. And that is, how much could the film make come its
release and will it be a huge success like the original. There's been some earlier projections
and indicators towardS how well this film might do, and in this video, I'm going to be weighing
all that out in giving an estimate towards Avatar The Way Of Water's global box office.
Before I get into it though, if you want to keep up to date on any of my future content surrounding
the Avatar sequels and other sci-fi series such as Denis Villeneuve's Dune, then don't
forget to support this upload by giving it a like rating, subscribing to the channel, turning on
your notifications and following me on social media via the links in the description. But
without further a do, lets dive into my breakdown for the potential box office of Avatar 2.
So I've had multiple viewers ask and debate how much money Avatar 2 might make come it's big
release and I've also noticed a few people online, mention that no one cares about Avatar all
these years later. Now I can understand the perspective that this film is releasing 13
years after the wild success of the original, and that the technology involved at the time was a
big reason for those massive numbers. The cultural relevance of the original Avatar has continuously
been brought into question, but I think recent indicators have really suggested that
that cultural impact is still in tact. The box office from the re-release may be the first big
indicator, as it make over $70 milion with a 13 year remaster, showing that people do still
watch that original film and enjoy it all these years later. Now sure, I don't currently think
Avatar will make the $2.9 billion dollars that the first film made, but if the film does
turn out to be a great one or even better than that first instalment,
showcassing its groundbreaking new technology,
then I think there is a possibility for the numbers to be really high.
The reason I say this is because recent box office projections in an article from Variety have
indicated how much Avatar 2 is looking to make at the domestic box office. It predicts that
the follow up will make around $650 million at the US box office alone combined with VOD and
physical sales in the years to come. Now while this number is currently below the $784 million
gross that the first film made in the U.S. and Canada, to make around 86% of what that made
13 years later and without a big marketing push as of yet, is quite crazy. Now another thing
to keep in mind is that the highest grossing film of the year in Top Gun: Maverick, a sequel that
came nearly 30 years after the original, has since grossed more than $700 million
domestically and nearly $1.5 billion worldwide since its release. No one predicted that a
nostalgic movie like this would go on to do such figures at the box office 30 years after
a original film that many thought was just ok. Now it's easy to compare Maverick to Avatar
2 when it comes to a long awaited sequel all these years later. But what Avatar 2 has to do
if it's going to ride a similar level of success is of course be a great film. Still,
if it's currently tracking to make nearly 90% of the original film's run, a number that doesn't
consider the added marketing boost that's going to be arriving in the next few weeks, then I
think it's safe to say that these numbers have the potential of being really huge. And while
I've only spoken about domestic figures, what could this also mean for international numbers.
Well if we're going to look at comparisons in using these already established domestic
predictions, the first Avatar made around $2 billion from international markets alone, without
any re-releases added on top of this number. That's over 70% of it's total coming from
regions from outside of america. And the re-release itself made a similar percentage of
around 67%. So it's clear that countries outside of the US are going to bring in much of Avatar
2's audience, and I think we could be looking at a similar 70-80% of what that original film made
internationally. Based on those figures I'm going to guess that Avatar 2 has the early
potential to make 1-1.4 billion dollars just in international markets alone. And to stress,
I think it will only make this if the film gets a big release in China. The reason I say that
is because the original film made huge bank in China back in 2009,
and if it gets that release,it'll essentially have a clear path to becoming
the highest grossing film of the year. Top Gun Maverick didn't have a China release, nor
do a lot of Hollywood movies more recently, and I think with the first Avatar making $265 million in
China, it would only boost the prospects of the sequel.
So with all those details now underlined, what is the total figure that I think Avatar 2 can
reach worldwide. Well, say it isn't rereleased in china, I think there's a potential for it
take $1 billion internationally and then add on that $650 million domestic figure that
was projected before. That would mean my minimum prediction would be around $1.5 billion dollars
without a china release. But just say it did eventually get a China debut, I think that figure
could extend up to around $1.8 billion worldwide, meaning that it could very well match the
total of Spider-Man No Way Home from last year, which currently has the
record in the post-pandemic era. Like I said before, these figures
are without considering that final marketing push with a second full length trailer or even
what the quality of the film will be. That may only raise in the next few months, and when we
consider that the original teaser trailer was high up the list for the most trailer views
on its debut, a bigger marketing push over the next 2 months will only raise the anticipation.
These factors will be important to show how Avatar 2 really builds momentum going into the
back part of this year, and I think just based on these early figures and projections, were
looking at some potential huge numbers for James Cameron's highly anticipated sequel. So right now,
I'm predicting that the film has the potential to make around $1.5-2 billion dollars in it's
final run if it does release in China. And even if it does fall short of the $2.9 billion
that the first Avatar brought in, we have to remember that there are going to be 3 more Avatar
films, every 2 years following the release of The Way Of Water. So if this sequel is
loved by its audience and ends up making $1.5-2 billion worldwide, then just imagine how much the
sequels might make, if again they are great films. Now the reverse could happen for a lot
of these points I've mentioned, and for all we know, Avatar 2 might just be an average sequel
that ends up making just north of a billion. But with James Cameron's track record at not
just making good films, but highly successful ones which break records 10 years apart, I'm honestly
willing to predict that this sequel to the biggest film of all time, can do again all
these years later. At the end of the day, we'll have to see, and there's still around 2 months
until the release of the film, so many things can change between now and then. But Avatar 2
is in a great position with less competition, and I think recent signs have suggested that for one,
the cultural impact of the first film is still in tact, and two, the sequel is going
to make a hell of a lot of money at the box office come its release this December.
But that was my video discussing the potantial box office of Avatar 2. We'll have to see how
the film is recieved when it releases, and you all know that I'm personally excited to return
to Pandora and see what James Cameron has been working on for all these years. Like I said,
I think it's going to do well and if it's a great film, that will only raise the figures it
does pull in. I still think a lot of people are underestimating Cameron and how he continuously
raises the bar with his projects in different ways, and also, how he continuously grabs
the imagination of large audiences worldwide deacdes apart. He did that with Titanic,
he did that with first Avatar over 10 years later, and he could potentially do that again 13 years
after that film. It'll be interesting to see what happens and I want you to know that I'm
definitely going to be covering Avatar The Way Of Water extensivelly on the channel over the
next few months, which includes uploads on my road to Avatar 2 series and breakdowns on the
new film when it releases this December. My Road to Avatar 2 series continues later this week
with a video essay on the original Terminator movie that Cameron directed all those years ago.
So stay tuned for much more content on the film in the months ahead and don't forget to let
me know down below in the comments section what your predictions
are towards how much Avatar 2 could make at the worldwide box office.
For much more videos and news on James Cameron's Avatar films and upcoming sci-fi projects,
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But anyway, I hope you guys enjoyed it, I've been Cortex and as always make some noise.