We just want to hear what Madame Lagarde has to say, are there 'nuages sombres' out there?
Dark clouds? Let's listen in to her speech at Hong Kong University.
Be a little bit more sensitive to changes and Hong Kong girls are keenly aware
that economic history never actually moves in a linear way, but moves in cycles
and they know that when the economy is moving, whether it's moving up or down
and I'm not here talking just about the stock market.
Policy makers cannot afford to stand still,
and that is also the story of the global economy.
The world at the moment is going through a really strong upswing.
Now I heard professor Chen that say that we were not in the spotlight,
which doesn't mean to say that we don't have much to do and I'll try to demonstrate that,
but that upswing actually holds the promise of higher income,
better living standards and delivering on that promise is actually critical not just here
in Asia but around the world particularly after what people have gone through
in terms of financial crisis back ten years ago.
Now, we at the IMF have been calling on all governments
to use the current growth momentum for much needed policy actions
and reforms, particularly in the labor markets and in the service market.
Now, this is what I have borrowed from John Fitzgerald Kennedy, when he said
it's when the sun is shining that you actually want to fix the roof.
And we very much believe that this is time to do so.
These reforms that I've just mentioned are politically difficult,
but they are much easier to conduct and implement, when there is growth momentum.
Some governments have taken action, but much more needs to be done
and in many corners of the world.
We believe that the window of opportunity is opened
But we also believe that there is new urgency
because uncertainties have significantly increased.
From trade tensions, frictions, to rising financial and fiscal risks to more uncertain geopolitics
So how we can actually sustain that upswing in the face of these rising risks?
And how we can foster longer-term growth that benefits all,
are the two key questions that I believe about 160 or so
finance ministers and about as many central bank governors will be asking
themselves and asking each other next week,
when they all gather in Washington D.C. for the spring meetings.
And those are the issues that I would like to discuss with you today.
So, what I will do is very quickly broad-brush the state of the global economy
as we see it and as we forecast it and then identify the three
priorities which I believe can actually help with sustaining that upswing
and creating a more solid longer-term growth.
So, as I said at the moment, the sun is shining.
We are clearly seeing a momentum that is driven by stronger investment
a rebound in trade and favourable financial conditions,
and all of that converging actually drives companies
and households to actually increase their spending.
And that's the reason, you know, this nice momentum that we're seeing at the moment,
which brings us almost back to the average that we had pre-financial crisis,
That's the reason why back in January at the IMF we forecasted growth in 2018 and 2019 at 3.9 %.
We will be publishing our latest forecast in April
and you will see that we continue to be optimistic
Now where does that growth come from?
Advanced economies are expected to grow above the medium-term potential this year and next
If you look at Europe, for instance, the upswing is now more widely spread
across the whole region.
The United States is already at full employment
and growth will likely accelerate further due to expansionary fiscal policy.
Here in Asia, the outlook remains bright
And if we look at only emerging Asia, we are forecasting growth at about 6.5 percent
And that is good, not just for Asia or emerging Asia
which is the number that I just gave you, it's good for the entire world,
because Asia is actually fueling almost two-thirds of that 3.9% growth.
Japan's economy continued to grow strongly, we see that at about 1.2%,
and Asian emerging markets, led by China, 6.6%
India - 7.4%, are driven by higher domestic consumption and also rising exports.
This is the bright side of things, we have countries with challenges,
particularly in emerging and low income countries.
Especially in sub-saharan Africa, they benefit from commodity...
So that's Christine Lagarde we're listening to her coming from
the University of Hong Kong, that she's made a number of comments, she talked about
being optimistic on global growth even as darker clouds are looming.