>>> MASSACHUSETTS VOTERS WILL DECIDE, IN A NOVEMBER 3RD BALLOT
QUESTION IF THE STATE SHOULD EMBRACE A RANKED-CHOICE VOTING
SYSTEM FOR ALMOST ALL FEDERAL AND STATE RACES STARTING IN
2022. CRITICS SAY THE SYSTEM IS
CONFUSING AND COMPLICATED. CARRIE SALDO SPOKE WITH UMASS
AMHERST PROFESSOR JUSTIN GROSS, A RANKED-CHOICE SUPPORTER, FOR
HIS PERSPECTIVE. >> IT'S BEEN IN THE WORKS FOR A
WHILE, ESPECIALLY IN NEW ENGLAND, CERTAIN OTHER PARTS OF
THE COUNTRY, SOUTHWEST, BUT ACTUALLY IN MASSACHUSETTS
ITSELF, WE HAVE ONE OF THE EARLIEST EXAMPLES IN CAMBRIDGE
SINCE 1941 OF USING RANKED CHOICE VOTING IN CERTAIN LOCAL
ELECTIONS AND SO I THINK THIS IS SOME OPENNESS TO IT HERE SO I
WASN'T SHOCKED, BUT I THINK IT'S INTERESTING TO HAVE IT BEFORE
THE VOTING PUBLIC. >> AND IT HAS POPPED UP HERE AND
THERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WE'LL TALK ABOUT THAT.
IT'S USED OVERSEAS, SOME PLACES ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY.
BUT STILL A BIT OF A MYSTERY FOR FOLKS HERE, SO I WANT TO HAVE US
BREAK THAT DOWN, RANKED-CHOICE VOTING IS WHAT IT SEEMS LIKE,
PEOPLE ARE RANKING THEIR PREFERENCES IN ORDER.
WE'LL GO WITH COOKIES. CHOCOLATE CHIP, PEANUT BUTTER,
OATMEAL RAISIN, I'M ALL OVER THE CHOCOLATE CHIP, THAT'S WHERE I'M
HEADED BUT IF THAT DOESN'T COME OUT ON TOP, IF THERE ISN'T A
DEFINITIVE MAJORITY WINNER, WHAT THEN HAPPENS IN RANKED CHOICE
VOTING, WHETHER IT'S COOKIES OR ACTUAL CANDIDATES?
>> ONE OF THE PROBLEMS IS ESPECIALLY AS YOU HAVE MORE
OPTIONS AVAILABLE PERHAPS CHOCOLATE CHIP WILL BE POPULAR
ENOUGH THAT YOU'LL GET OVER 50% AND IF WE HAVE A GENERAL SENSE
IF THAT'S THE MAJORITY WINNER, THAT SHOULD BE THE WINNER.
THAT'S THE CASE HERE AS TO, IF ANY ONE NOMINEE GETS 50% OR MORE
IN THE FIRST ROUND, THAT'S MAJORITY, BUT THE MORE OPTIONS
THERE ARE. I'LL GIVE YOU AN EXAMPLE OF THE
CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL RECALL ELECTION THAT EVENTUALLY PULLED
OUT GOVERNOR DAVIS AND RESULTED INSCHWARZENEGGER'S ELECTION,
THERE WERE LIKE 200 OPTIONS. IF IT'S PLURALITY, PAST THE
POST, IT HE GOT ENOUGH SUPPORT THAT IT DIDN'T SEEM RIDICULOUS,
BUT YOU COULD HAVE SOMEONE GET 200 CANDIDATES, THE CHOICE
NOMINEE HAVING LIKE FOUR OR 5%. SO THAT GENERALLY WOULDN'T SIT
WELL, ESPECIALLY IF THEY WERE REALLY LOW ON MOST PEOPLE'S
CHOICE. SO THE WAY IT WORKS IS BASICALLY
IF NO ONE CANDIDATE, LET'S SAY CHOCOLATE CHIP COOKIES MAKES IT
PAST 50%, THERE'S A SORT OF INSTANT RUNOFF AND SOME PLACES
CALL IT A RUNOFF AND THE FIRST THING THAT HAPPENS IS WHICHEVER
CANDIDATE GOT THE LEAST FIRST PLACE VOTES WOULD BE ELIMINATED.
SO SAY OATMEAL COOKIES, SORRY GRANDMA, OATMEAL RAISIN COOKIES
HAD THE LEAST FIRST PLACE VOTES. THOSE VOTES WOULD BE ELIMINATED
AND ANYONE WHO HAD OATMEAL COOKIES, OR ANYONE HAD THE
ELIMINATED CANDIDATE FIRST, YOU WOULD LOOK AT THEIR SECOND
CHOICE AND THEIR VOTES WOULD BE MOVED ACCORDINGLY AND THIS WOULD
BE REPEATED UNTIL ONE CANDIDATE GETS ABOUT 50%.
>> NOW, OPPONENTS SAY THAT IT'S A VERY COMPLICATED SYSTEM AND
WHAT YOU JUST DESCRIBED, WHILE CAN BE VERY STREAMLINED AND
OBVIOUSLY, CAN END UP WITH SOMEONE COMING OUT ON TOP,
OPPONENTS SAY IT'S TOO COMPLICATED.
IS THAT PART OF WHAT HAS KEPT THIS OUT OF WIDER USE OUTSIDE OF
CAMBRIDGE, THE EXAMPLE YOU GAVE? >> I THINK SOMETIMES THE FEARS
OF COMPLICATION, SOMETIMES, IT'S DISCOMFORT WITH WHAT'S NEW.
I THINK THAT PEOPLE ARE USED TO JUST SEEING -- THEY HAVE THIS
SENSE OF LIKE THIS IS THE WAY VOTING WORKS, AND IT'S ACTUALLY
NOT, IN FACT, THIS KIND OF PLURALITY VOTE WHERE WHOEVER
GETS THE MOST PART, WHETHER IT'S ABOVE 50% IS NOT VERY POPULAR
AMONG THOSE WHO STUDY SOCIAL CHOICE OR HOW WE ACTUALLY --
IT'S NOT A STRAIGHTFORWARD MATTER TO SAY WHO'S THE CHOICE
OF THE CROWD? AND ACTUALLY RANKED CHOICE DOES
BRING IN MORE NUANCED IDEAS OF HOW INDIVIDUALS CAN EXPRESS
THEIR CHOICE. ANOTHER OPTION THAT SOME PLACES
USE IS JUST HAVING A RUNOFF. AND THAT'S MORE EXPENSIVE.
AND ALSO DOESN'T ALLOW FOR AS MUCH NUANCE AND SOME OF THE SAME
PROBLEMS THAT HAPPEN WITH JUST PLURALITY CAN HAPPEN WITH
INSTANT RUNOFF, AS WELL. JUST AS A I QUICK EXAMPLE.
IN PERU, THEIR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE HAD FIVE OR SIX
CANDIDATES AND TWO OF THEM THAT WOUND UP IN THE RUNOFF WERE A
FAR LEFT CANDIDATE AND ON THE RIGHT.
WHEN YOU ASKED ALL OF THE VOTERS AT THAT TIME LIKE WHO WERE THEIR
LEAST FAVORITE CANDIDATES, THOSE TWO WERE THE LEAST FAVORITE.
SO BASICALLY, THE MIDDLE, THE CENTER RIGHT AND CENTER LEFT WHO
WOULD HAVE PREFERRED SOMEONE ELSE TO THEIR CANDIDATES WERE
SPLITTING THEIR VOTE AND THAT'S ONE OF THE THINGS THAT RANKED
CHOICE TRIES TO AVOID IS VOTE SPLITTING, WASTED VOTES AND
OFF-NUMBER OF SITUATIONS IF YOU HAVE RANKED CHOICE VOTE, SAYING
NADER NOT AFFECTING THE VOTE IN FLORIDA IN THE PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION IN 2000 AND ACTUALLY MAINE WHERE THERE HAS BEEN
ADOPTED RANKED-CHOICE VOTING. ONE OF THE REASONS THAT
PREDOMINANT THAT WAS THE GOVERNOR'S VICTORY.
HE HAD SOMETHING LIKE 37.6% IN HIS FIRST ELECTION IN 2010.
AND MORE MODERATE CANDIDATES THAN HIM WOULD EASILY HAVE
BEATEN HIM IT'S BELIEVED BASED ON POLLING IN AN INSTANT RUNOFF.
>> YOU MENTIONED SOME OF THE SNAGS THAT HAVE PROMPTED THIS
PROCESS AND MICHAEL MEHAN OF VOTER CHOICE FOR MASSACHUSETTS,
WHICH IS THE CAMPAIGN THAT PUSHED TO GET THIS ITEM ON THE
BALLOT BEFORE VOTERS HERE IN MASSACHUSETTS IN NOVEMBER SAID
THIS. VOTE THIS IS A SIMPLE, FAIR AND
EFFECTIVE WAY TO ADDRESS SO MANY OF THE POLITICAL ILLS THAT WE
ALL COMPLAIN ABOUT AT THE DINNER TABLE.
SOME OTHER POLITICAL ILLS THAT YOU SEE THAT THIS MIGHT REMEDY?
>> ONE OF THE COMPLAINTS YOU OFTEN HEAR FROM FOLKS IS THE
LACK OF CHOICE AND AMONG POLITICAL SCIENTISTS THERE'S A
WELL KNOWN PROPERTY PRINCIPLE THAT BASICALLY SAYS WHEN YOU
HAVE THIS KIND OF PLURALITY VOTING, NONPROPORTIONAL,
NONRANKED CHOICE VOTING IT NECESSARILY OR ALMOST
NECESSARILY LEADS TO TWO DOMINANT PARTIES, AND SO FOR
ANYONE WHO WANTS MORE VARIETY, THERE'S A REASON THAT
LIBERTARIAN PARTY OF MASSACHUSETTS ALSO SUPPORTS THIS
AS WELL AS THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF MASSACHUSETTS.
ONE OF THE WAYS, IT ALLOWS THOSE WHO JUST CAN'T BRING THEMSELVES
TO VOTE FOR THE LESSER OF TWO EVILS IN THEIR MIND AND WANT TO
CAST A VOTE FOR SAY LIBERTARIAN OR GREEN PARTY OR SOME NEW PARTY
THAT EMERGES, THEY CAN DO THAT AND IF THAT CANDIDATE TURNS OUT
TO BE LAST, THEY STILL GET TO CAST ANOTHER VOTE.
THEY DON'T HAVE TO WASTE A SYMBOLIC VOTE.
THEY CAN DO BOTH THINGS AND THAT CAN HELP THINGS BECAUSE A
FLEDGLING PARTY THAT MIGHT ONLY GET 15% BUT IS STILL GETTING
ATTENTION CAN BUILD AND YOU HAVE MORE OF A CHANCE THAT THERE'S
MORE OF A MULTIPARTY SYSTEM IN THE LONG RUN.
>> WELL, WERE THIS TO BE ENACTED, WHAT OTHER CHANGES?
TO ME INITIALLY, A DEBATE POPS IN MIND.
WE'VE HAD VERY, VERY CROWDED DEBATE STAGES, ESPECIALLY AT THE
PRESIDENTIAL LEVEL AS OF LATE IN THE PRIMARY PROCESS.
DOES THIS THEN MAKE THAT EVEN MORE COMPLICATED AND BROADER?
>> SO NO, I'M GLAD YOU BROUGHT THAT UP.
AND INTERESTINGLY I THINK UNFORTUNATELY FROM A PERSPECTIVE
OF SOMEONE WHO SUPPORTS RANKED-CHOICE VOTING, THE
CURRENT BALLOT -- IT WOULD BE FOR MOST OFFICES, CERTAINLY
STATE OFFICES, LOCAL OFFICES FOR THE MOST PART AND FEDERAL
CONGRESSIONAL OFFICES BUT NOT FOR THE PRESIDENT AS IT STANDS
AND NOT FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY.
I ACTUALLY THINK THE PRIMARY IS ONE OF THE PLACES WHERE THIS IS
BEST USED AND IT WAS ATTEMPTED FOR THE FIRST TIME RECENTLY BY
THE DEMOCRATIC PARTIES IN ALASKA, HAWAII, KANSAS AND
WYOMING. IT DIDN'T -- IT WAS LATE IN THE
GAME SO THERE WAS MORE THAN 50%, WENT TO BIDEN.
IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT, WHEN YOU HAD, IN FACT, IN THE 2016
ELECTION, 17 REPUBLICAN NOMINEES, WHEN INDIVIDUALS WERE
ASKED EARLY ON LIKE WHO THEY APPROVED AND DISAPPROVED OF, THE
EVENTUAL PRESIDENT NOMINEE AND PRESIDENT TRUMP HAD SOME OF THE
HIGHEST DISAPPROVAL RATINGS, BUT WHEN YOU HAVE 17 CANDIDATES,
THIS IS A SITUATION IN WHICH A STRONG GROUP THAT SUPPORTS HIM,
SO EARLY ON, YOU KNOW, IT WAS MID-TEENS, 25%.
EVEN IF EVERYONE ELSE PUT HIM LAST AND I'M NOT SAYING THAT WAS
THE CASE, BUT SOMEONE WITH NAME RECOGNITION CAN REALLY MAKE A
SPLASH AND SO I THINK ACTUALLY WITH MANY CANDIDATES, THAT'S
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WHERE YOU WANT RANKED CHOICE AND I SHOULD
POINT OUT IT DOESN'T MEAN YOU HAVE TO RANK ALL OF THEM AND IN
THIS BALLOT INITIATIVE IT DOESN'T APPLY TO PRESIDENTIAL OR
PRIMARIES, BUT IF YOU HAD MULTIPLE CANDIDATES, YOU COULD
JUST PUT YOUR FIRST VOTE IN AND SAY AFTER THAT I DON'T CARE.
IT WOULD BE THE EQUIVALENT IF THERE'S A RUNOFF NOT INCLUDING
MY FAVORITE, I'M NOT GOING. YOU COULD RANK YOUR FIRST THREE,
FOUR, FIVE OR ALL OF THEM. AND, YOU KNOW, ESSENTIALLY THAT
AMOUNTS TO ANYONE I LEAVE OFF, I DON'T KNOW MUCH ABOUT THEM.
I WILL SAY ONE THING AS A POINT THAT THE MASS FISCAL ALLIANCE
WHO'S OPPOSING THIS BALLOT BRINGS UP THAT'S A REASONABLE
OBJECTION I THINK IS THAT IN THE CASE -- THEY SAY LOOK IF YOU
WANT TO DO BETTER THAN PLURALITY, LET'S JUST HAVE A
RUNOFF. THAT COULD BE EXPENSIVE, BUT THE
REASON THEY BRING UP THAT THEY LIKE IS IS IT'S JUST -- THE WAYS
IN, WHICH IT'S CONFUSING IS NOT SIMPLY ON THE BALLOT I THINK
THERE WOULD NEED TO BE AN EDUCATION CAMPAIGN TO PREPARE
PEOPLE TO VOTE, BUT ALSO IN TERMS OF THINK ABOUT WHO I
PREFER AMONG ALL OF THESE AND SOMETHING ABOUT A RUNOFF BETWEEN
TWO LEADERS WOULD FORCE VOTERS TO SAY OKAY, I HAD MY PICK, AND
NOW, THEY'RE NOT IN THE FINAL TWO, LET ME THINK CAREFULLY
ABOUT THESE TWO HEAD TO HEAD INSTEAD OF TRYING TO ORDER ALL
AT ONCE SO THERE ARE DEFINITELY TRADE-OFFS AND I GUESS WE'LL SEE
WHAT THE VOTERS THINK. >> AND ANOTHER OBJECTION THAT
MIGHT BE COMING IF THIS WERE TO BE PASSED AND APPROVED, THERE'S
GOING TO NEED TO BE MONEY ATTACHED TO IT BECAUSE AS
SOMEONE WHO'S COVERED ELECTIONS FOR A LONG TIME IN SMALL
COMMUNITIES, CITY CLERKS AND VOLUNTEERS MAKE ELECTION NIGHT
HAPPEN. SO IF THIS IS A MORE DETAILED
PROCESS, YOU'RE GOING TO NEED MORE BRAINS AND MORE BODIESNK OE
SEEN PLACES WHERE LOT MORE VOTER TURNOUT, A LOT
MORE INTEREST. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE -- I THINK
ALONG WITH THE ADDED WORK, I THINK SOME MONEY NEEDS TO BE
ATTACHED, AS I SAID, TO JUST EDUCATING VOTERS AND FINDING A
BALLOT THAT ACTUALLY -- THERE ARE WAYS TO DO THIS ON A BALLOT
THAT ARE CONFUSING AND WAYS THAT ARE LESS CONFUSING AND SO
FIGURING OUT MAYBE TEST RUNNING SOME OPTIONS OUT THERE.
I THINK, YOU KNOW, IT'S GOING TO BE -- IT'S GOING TO BE IMPORTANT
THAT IF THIS GETS PASSED THAT THEY COMMIT TO IT.
CERTAINLY IN SOME PLACES, MOST PLACES THAT HAVE ADOPTED IT HAVE
KEPT IT. THERE ARE CERTAINLY PLACES THAT
HAVE ACTUALLY ADOPTED IT, AND THEN GONE BACK.
SOMETIMES, THERE'S BUYER'S REMORSE.
I'LL GIVE YOU AN EXAMPLE OF BURLINGTON, VERMONT, USED IT FOR
ITS MAYORAL ELECTION IN 2005, 2009.
WOUND UP HAPPENING, AND IT WAS REPEALED BY A SMALL MARGIN, AND
NOW FOLKS ARE PUSHING TO HAVE IT BACK.
WHAT HAPPENED ESSENTIALLY IS YOU HAD FOUR MAIN CANDIDATES FOR
MAYOR. THERE WAS A PROGRESSIVE WHO WAS
THE INCUMBENT SORT OF FURTHER TO THE LEFT THAN THE DEMOCRATS.
A PROGRESSIVE, A DEMOCRAT, A REPUBLICAN AND AN INDEPENDENT
AND THE REPUBLICAN IN THE FIRST-ROUND GOT 32.9%.
THE PROGRESSIVE HAD 28.8%, JUST A FEW BEHIND.
AND SO THERE'S ANOTHER ROUND. THE REPUBLICAN STAYED AHEAD.
THE THIRD ROUND, BASICALLY ALL THE DEMOCRATS ONCE THE DEMOCRAT
WAS OUT, MANY OF THEM VOTED FOR THE PROGRESSIVE AND SO THE
PROGRESSIVE EKED OUT A WIN. AND SO THAT SORT OF SITUATION
SOMETIMES SETS UP COMPLAINTS OF NO FAIR, FEELING LIKE SO CLOSE
TO WINNING AND THEN ALL OF A SUDDEN IN A LATER ROUND SOMEONE
ELSE WON SO IT TAKES PSYCHOLOGICALLY AN UNDERSTANDING
AND AN ADAPTATION TO A RICHER IDEA OF WHAT PUBLIC CHOICE IS
THAN JUST SORT OF I CAST MY ONE VOTE, AND THEN THAT'S.
AND ACTUALLY WINDS UP INVOLVING PEOPLE MORE IN THE FULL PROCESS
SO IF THEY CAST IT FOR SOMEONE WHO'S NOT EVEN CREDIBLE, THEY
DON'T HAVE TO MAKE THAT CHOICE STRATEGICALLY.
SO IT WILL CERTAINLY TAKE MONEY TO DO.
>> AS THE BALLOT QUESTION ROODS THAT PEOPLE WILL BE LOOKING AT
INCH NOVEMBER TO MAKE THIS DECISION, IF THEY SUPPORT RANKED
CHOICE VOTING THIS WOULD BE ROLLED OUT BY 2022, THAT SEEMS
PRETTY BRISK, NO? >> YES, ALTHOUGH THAT'S
CONSISTENT WITH HOW IT'S BEEN DONE ELSEWHERE.
AT THE STATE LEVEL IT'S A BIGGER STATE.
I THINK IT WILL BE A CHALLENGE. THERE HAVEN'T BEEN A LOT OF
STATES AND MAINE IS OBVIOUSLY SMALLER.
THAT'S BASICALLY THE PACE TWO LOCALITIES ADOPTED IT FOR THEIR
LOCAL ELECTIONS. EASTHAMPTON AND AMHERST.
THEY HAD A TWO-YEAR SCHEDULE, IT'S A BIT EASIER BUT IN SOME
CASES IT'S ACTUALLY MORE COMPLICATED.
AT LEAST IN THIS CASE I BELIEVE ALL THE ELECTIONS WE'RE DEALING
WITH HERE ARE SINGLE WINNER. SOME PLACES LIKE CAMBRIDGE, AS I
MENTIONED, AND AMHERST WITH TOWN COUNCIL WILL BE MULTIPLE, AND
IT'S SORT OF A GENERALIZATION, AN EXTENSION OF THE NOTION OF
RANKED CHOICE VOTING WHERE YOU'RE ACTUALLY GETTING MULTIPLE
WINNERS OUT OF IT. SO I IMAGINE THAT IF THIS GETS
PASSED, THEY'LL BE MOVING QUICKLY TO WORK ON ENACTING IT
AND, YOU KNOW, I THINK IF THE VOTERS ARE BEHIND IT.
AND IT CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKE IT'S NOT GOING TO GET A HUGE AMOUNT
OF PUSHBACK BY INSTITUTIONAL POWERS OF THE STATE.
I THINK THAT ACTUALLY IMPLEMENTING IT WILL BE LESS
CHALLENGING THAN AGAIN, HAVING IT GO SMOOTHLY SO THAT PEOPLE
AREN'T EXPECTING AND AREN'T EDUCATED ABOUT WHAT IT MEANS AND
HOW TO HANDLE IT, THEN THE LAST THING YOU WANT IF YOU'RE A
SUPPORTER OF THIS BALLOT INITIATIVE IS TO HAVE IT BE A
CLUNKY, CONFUSING ROLL-OUT AND THEN AGAIN MAYBE IF THAT
HAPPENS, A COUPLE OF YEARS LATER, PEOPLE ARE CALLING FOR A
REPEAL. ♪
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