LET'S HAVE A FURTHER CONVERSATION ABOUT JAMES COMEY'S
LETTER AND HOW IT AFFECTS THE ELECTION.
I HAPPEN TO THINK, AS
WE TALKED ABOUT EARLIER, IT AFFECTS IT DRAMATICALLY.
I THINK
IF 538 IS RIGHT, AND I THINK THEY ARE, ROUGHLY -- AND BEFORE
THIS NEW STORY BROKE I READ A BUNCH OF ARTICLES FROM 538 AND
WAS CRITICAL OF THEM IN THE PRIMARIES, AND I THOUGHT IT WAS
BETTER IN THE GENERAL ELECTION, I THOUGHT THEY WERE BEING THE
MOST OBJECTIVE OF ALL THE SOURCES I'VE SEEN IN TRUMP'S
ACTUAL CHANCES OF WINNING, I AGREE THAT IT WAS ABOUT 50%.
>>IT WAS 17 OR 18 THIS MORNING BEFORE THE STORY.
>>AND THEIR ESTIMATE TYPICALLY IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
THAN A LOT OF OTHERS.
>>THEY ARE, BUT I THINK THEY ARE HANDLING IT THE MOST
OBJECTIVELY.
NOW THEY ARE SAYING IT MOVES, THE RANGE WAS 13 TO
17% FOR DONALD TRUMP'S CHANCES, BEFORE THE STORY BROKE IT WAS AT
17, NOW IT HAS ABOUT DOUBLED.
>>HE SAYING IF IT MOVES AS MUCH AS IT DID THE LAST TIME THE
EMAIL STORY WAS IN THE NEWS, IT COULD DOUBLE.
>>VERY IMPORTANT, IF IT MOVES AS MUCH AS IT DID THE LAST TIME
COMEY DID IN ANNOUNCEMENT ON HILLARY'S EMAILS.
BUT I THINK
THAT'S A REASONABLE ASSUMPTION BECAUSE PEOPLE PAY MORE
ATTENTION NOW THAN THEY DID THREE MONTHS AGO WHEN IT WAS
REVEALED.
I KNOW THAT WAS A GIANT NEWS EVENT, BUT YOU WOULD
BE SURPRISED HOW MANY PEOPLE DON'T PAY ATTENTION TO THE GIANT
NEWS EVENTS UNLESS IT IS RIGHT BEFORE AN ELECTION.
I THINK IF
IT DOUBLES HIS CHANCES, WHICH IS A REASONABLE CONCLUSION UNDER
THOSE ASSUMPTIONS, THEN YOU HAVE AFFECTED THIS RACE IN A
MONUMENTAL, MONSTROUS WAY.
>>I THINK THAT'S A HYPOTHETICAL, THOUGH.
I DON'T THINK IT'S GOING
TO HAVE THAT KIND OF EFFECT.
>>THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY WE WILL KNOW.
>>AND BEFORE MONDAY OR TUESDAY, SOME REPORTERS OR FBI SOURCES
HAVE SAID THAT COMEY WILL CLARIFY HIS REMARKS.
>>DON'T RUSH, WAIT A WEEK OR TWO.
>>I THINK HE IS POETICALLY TONE DEAF.
I DON'T KNOW, BUT HE SEEMS
LIKE THE KIND OF GUY WHO -- WHAT IS HAPPENING ON THE GRAPHIC?
>>IT'S CALL ME MAYBE.
CARLY RAE JEPSEN.
>>AND THAT IS JAMES COMEY MADE TO LOOK LIKE --
>>IT IS.
AND WHILE I DON'T THINK THIS IS GOING TO AFFECT THE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN ANY REMARKABLE WAY, I DO THINK THAT
THIS AFFECTS THE SENATE ELECTIONS AND I THINK
THAT'S VERY IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS.
>>WHY WOULD YOU THINK IT WOULD AFFECT THE SENATE AND NOT THE
PERSON ABOUT WHOM IT'S ABOUT?
>>IN A MACRO WAY THEY CAN GET AWAY FROM IT, BUT IN A MICROWAVE
THE SENATORS RUNNING IN SMALLER PLACES, NOT IN GLOBAL RACES,
THEY ARE IN THEIR STATES AND THEY CAN HAVE CONVERSATIONS
DIRECTLY WITH VOTERS TALKING ABOUT WE HAVE TO MAKE SURE WE
KEEP THIS SEAT REPUBLICAN OR WE ELECT A REPUBLICAN TO THE SEAT
SO WE CAN MAKE SURE THAT WHEN HILLARY CLINTON IS ELECTED WE
CAN GO AFTER.
THIS WEEK, TWO DIFFERENT ISSUES PLAYED INTO
SENATE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES WHO HAD NOTHING TO RUN ON OTHER THAN
DONALD TRUMP.
THEY HAD PREMIUMS GOING UP ON OBAMACARE, AND THEY
HAVE THIS.
THAT MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN RACES WHERE THERE
IS A LITTLE BIT OF DOUBT ON THE HILLARY CLINTON CANDIDACY, THEY
ARE ABLE TO SAY YOU DON'T HAVE TO VOTE FOR DONALD TRUMP
BUT MAKE SURE I'M THERE TO COVER YOUR ASS WHEN HILLARY
CLINTON IS PRESIDENT.
>>I THINK THAT'S A GOOD POINT, I THINK IT'S HALF WRONG -- I DON'T
SEE HOW IT CAN'T AFFECT HILLARY CLINTON AS WELL.
>>I THINK IT COULD UNELECT DEMOCRATIC CHALLENGERS, I
THINK HILLARY CLINTON WILL STILL WIN BY A LOT.
>>MICHAEL'S POSITION WAS HILLARY CLINTON WOULD WIN RIGHT AFTER
THE NEW YORK PRIMARY, MAYBE EVEN EARLIER, SUPER TUESDAY, SHE
WAS GOING TO WIN THE WHOLE RACE, THAT HAS NEVER BEEN CLOSE.
>>MINE IS AS OF A WEEK AND A HALF AGO.
>>YOUR POSITION IS THAT THIS NEWS EVENT IS NOT THAT
IMPORTANT?
>>I AGREE WITH WHAT YOU SAID ABOUT PEOPLE PAYING MORE
ATTENTION, BUT THE CLOSER YOU GET TO THE ELECTION THE HIGHER
AND HIGHER A BAR THERE HAS TO BE FOR SOMETHING TO SWING THE
ELECTION.
LOTS OF PEOPLE HAVE ALREADY VOTED, LOTS OF PEOPLE
HAVE MADE THEIR MIND UP.
BUT WHAT IS MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN IS
IF SHE LOSES TWO POINTS -- IT DOUBLES HIS CHANCES, THAT IS
TRUE -- I THINK IT LOWERS THE ODDS THAT SHE HAS A VERY
NECESSARY GIGANTIC WIN THAT WOULD CHANGE THE NARRATIVE GOING
INTO HER PRESIDENCY.
>>AND CHANGE THE NARRATIVE ON NOVEMBER 9 ABOUT HOW MANY PEOPLE
ACCEPT IT.
>>THAT IS INCREDIBLE IMPORTANT.
>>THE WHOLE THING IS.
THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT POLITICAL
MOMENT OF MY LIFETIME, THERE HAVE BEEN A BUNCH OF THEM, BUT
IT IS.
IN ELECTING A RACE BAITING NARCISSISTIC THEM AGOG
WITH SOME FASCIST TENDENCIES IS THE THING THAT EVERY THINKING
AMERICAN SHOULD BE DEDICATED TO STOPPING AT WHAT.
THEN TURN ON
HILLARY CLINTON COMPLETELY, I DON'T CARE.
I GRANT YOU
PERMISSION, BECAUSE I KNOW PEOPLE HAVE BEEN LOOKING TO ME
TO GRANT THEM PERMISSION.
BUT WE ARE MISSING THE STORY HERE,
ANYTHING THAT JEOPARDIZES THAT IS A BIG DEAL AND THE PEOPLE WHO
PANIC ABOUT IT ALL RIGHT TO PANIC.
HOPEFULLY MICHAEL IS
RIGHT AND IT WON'T MAKE A DIFFERENCE, I FEAR -- IF SHE
WINS, WE WILL NEVER KNOW.
BUT GOING FROM A SIXTH TO A THIRD IS
GIGANTIC, BECAUSE A THIRD IS A THIRD.
>>THAT SIDE OF THE TABLE THINKS IT WON'T MAKE AS MUCH OF A
DIFFERENCE, THIS SIDE OF THE TABLE THINKS IT MAKES A
GIANT DIFFERENCE.
BUT I THINK IT COULD.
>>BUT COULD HIS ALREADY HUGE.
>>I THINK YOU MISCHARACTERIZED EVERYONE BUT ME, I DON'T THINK
HE THINKS IT WILL MAKE AN ENORMOUS DIFFERENCE --
>>IT DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS THIS WEEKEND.
IF JAMES COMEY
GOES, HILLARY CLINTON IS NOT AN ISSUE HERE, SHE HAS CLEARED,
THERE WAS NO CASE --
>>BUT THEN IT'S CONSPIRACY ON TOP OF CONSPIRACY.
>>BUT THE CONSPIRACY --
>>BUT EVEN IF WE HAD THE LOWEST IMPACT, THE ONE BEN JUST
DESCRIBED -- LATER TONIGHT, SATURDAY, SUNDAY, COMEY SAYS WE
READ THE EMAILS AND IT TURNS OUT IT'S NO BIG DEAL, NUMBER ONE YOU
AFFECTED THE PEOPLE DOING EARLY VOTING IN ALL THE STATES.
NUMBER
TWO YOU LET REPUBLICANS FOR THREE OR FOUR DAYS, HOWEVER
LONG, SAY WE DO IT, CROOKED HILLARY, CORRUPT HILLARY.
NUMBER
FOUR, YOU UNLEASHED CONSPIRACY THEORIES THAT WILL NEVER END,
AND WILL AFFECT THIS PARTICULAR ELECTION, AND THAT IS THE
LOWEST IMPACT.
>>I AGREE.
BUT I DON'T THINK ANY NEW PERSON WHO WAS AVAILABLE AS
A HILLARY VOTER BUYS THIS CONSPIRACY THEORY, BECAUSE THEN
THEY BOUGHT A TON OF OTHER ONES AND THERE IS NO WAY THEY
ARE VOTING FOR HER.
>>THAT'S IMPORTANT, WHAT YOU JUST SAID.
>>ON THE CONSPIRACY THEORY PART.
SOME OF THE OTHER STUFF MIGHT
LAND.
I KNOW WE HAVE TO MOVE ON, BUT IN ONE SENSE REPUBLICANS GOT
THIS RIGHT AND DEMOCRATS GOT THIS WRONG.
NOT THIS STORY, BUT
REPUBLICANS TROTTED 16 PEOPLE -- BOZOS, NEARLY ALL OF THEM, NOT
ALL -- AND THEY HAD THIS PROCESS AND ENDED UP WITH A CATASTROPHE.
DEMOCRATS, THERE WERE ALWAYS QUALIFIED PEOPLE TO RUN, MANY OF
THEM ESTABLISHMENT PEOPLE WHO WOULD DRAW THE SAME CRITICISM AS
HILLARY, BUT THEY DID NOT CARRY HER BAGGAGE.
PRESIDENT OBAMA AND
HIS MACHINE AND THE MACHINE LOCKED IT DOWN, AND ONLY A WEIRD
DUDE FROM VERMONT THINKING, I DON'T CARE -- THAT THE ONLY
REASON HE RAN, I DON'T CARE, I DON'T CARE IF I RAISE ANY MONEY,
I JUST WANT TO TALK ABOUT THESE THINGS -- HE HAD A CHANCE TO
WIN.
WHETHER THE SCANDALS ABOUT HER RIGHT OR WRONG, AND MOST OF
THEM ARE WRONG, OUR NONSENSE -- SOME OF THEM HAVE SEEDS OF TRUTH
TO THEM -- SHE IS AN INCREDIBLE DAMAGED POLITICAL FIGURE.
AND
THE FACT THAT MAINSTREAM DEMOCRAT AFTER MAINSTREAM
DEMOCRAT NEVER AT ANY POINT RECOGNIZED THIS IN A SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH WAY, OR A GROUP OR BLOCK OF THEM STAND UP AND THINK YOU
DON'T GET TO BE PRESIDENT, EVEN IF YOU'VE BEEN WRONGED, BECAUSE
MOST OF THESE SCANDALS ARE NONSENSE, YOU DON'T JUST GET TO
BE THE NOMINEE IF YOU ARE POLITICALLY DAMAGED.
AND IF FIVE
PEOPLE HAD RUN FOR PRESIDENT ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE, AND I GET
THAT THERE WERE ACTUALLY FIVE --
>>A REAL RACE.
>>IF WE HAD A REAL RACE I THINK SHE WOULD HAVE BEEN DEFEATED.
MAYBE NOT BY BERNIE.
>>YOU HAD AS REAL A RACE AS YOU COULD HAVE HAD.
>>BULLSHIT.
YOU COULD HAVE HAD BIDEN AND WARREN IN THEIR.
>>BUT THEY DIDN'T, BECAUSE THE PRESIDENT DIDN'T WANT THOSE
PEOPLE TO RUN.
>>FIRST OF ALL, THE PRESIDENT WOULD HAVE BEEN FINE WITH
JOE BIDEN RUNNING.
>>I DON'T THINK SO, HE TURNED THE MACHINE OVER TO HILLARY.
>>AT A CERTAIN POINT HE DID.
>>THE PARTY MADE A HUGE MISTAKE.
>>BUT THIS WAS A VERY SPIRITED, INVOLVED, DIVISIVE AND
ULTIMATELY --
>>BECAUSE OF THE CRANK FROM VERMONT, GOD BLESS HIM.
>>THERE IS A CRANK FROM NEW YORK RUNNING IN THE REPUBLICAN
RACE AND HE WON.
I WOULDN'T QUALIFY BERNIE AS A CRANK.
BERNIE WAS A SENATOR WHO CAME INTO THE PARTY FROM OUTSIDE THE
PARTY WITH IDEAS THAT NOBODY HAD REALLY TAKEN SERIOUSLY IN
THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY BEFORE, AND HAD GREAT SUCCESS.
>>DEMOCRATS THOUGHT SHE WAS A PERFECT CANDIDATE, AND SHE'S ONE
OF THE LEAST PERFECT CANDIDATES TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT.
MICHAEL, SHE MIGHT BE A GREAT PRESIDENT.
>>I DON'T THINK ANY DEMOCRATS THOUGHT SHE WAS A PERFECT
CANDIDATE.
I KNOW A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO LOVE HER, NOT ONE OF
THEM DO I KNOW WHO THINKS SHE IS A PERFECT CANDIDATE.
>>THEN WE SHOULD HAVE TRIED TO GET MORE PEOPLE RUNNING.
>>YOU KNOW HOW POLITICS WORKS.
>>THEY WERE AFRAID TO RUN AGAINST THE GIANT MACHINE.
>>NOT JUST AFRAID, IT'S IMPOSSIBLE.
>>THAT'S THE PROBLEM.
I AGREE.
>>THAT'S MONEY IN POLITICS.
THAT'S NOT THE DEMOCRATS, THAT'S
REPUBLICANS HISTORICALLY -- HOW DID GEORGE W. BUSH RUN?
SO MANY
PEOPLE FROM LAMAR ALEXANDER TO DAN QUAYLE IN 2000
DROPPED OUT OF THE RACE BECAUSE THEY COULDN'T AFFORD TO RUN.
>>IT'S PARTIALLY THE MONEY, BUT PARTIALLY THE FOUNDATIONAL,
INSTITUTIONAL SUPPORT SHE HAD TWO YEARS BEFORE SHE
ANNOUNCED, WHICH SHE KNEW WOULD BE THERE.
>>THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY ESTABLISHMENT,
NO ONE CAN ARGUE, WAS COMPLETELY BEHIND HILLARY CLINTON.
>>THE PARTY WAS 1000% BEHIND HER.
LOOK AT THE DNC, THE WAY THEY WORKED AT.
>>AND BEN IS RIGHT, THEY WERE WRONG.
THE CORE OF THE MISTAKE
IS THINKING, WHICH DEMOCRATS DO FOR SELFISH REASONS, PRIMARIES
ARE BAD.
THE PRIMARY WILL HURT THE PARTY, WHATEVER YOU DO,
DON'T DO THE PRIMARY.
SAID THE GUYS ALREADY IN POWER.
>>WAIT A SECOND, CENK, THEY'VE HAD SUCCESSFUL PRIMARIES THAT
GOT THEM BILL CLINTON, BARACK OBAMA.
>>THAT WAS A LONG TIME AGO, MICHAEL.
EVEN UNDER OBAMA, THEY DIDN'T WANT HIM TO RUN.
>>YOU HAD JOHN EDWARDS, BARACK OBAMA, HILLARY CLINTON.
THAT WAS
ONE CYCLE AGO.
>>YOU ARE TELLING ME THAT THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY WANTED A
PRIMARY IN THIS ELECTION?
HELL NO.
>>WE ARE TALKING ABOUT IS, MICHAEL IS RIGHT IN THE PAST,
THEY SCREWED IT UP HERE.
THEIR ASSESSMENT OF THIS CANDIDATE AS
A CANDIDATE WHO COULD WIN WAS THE ONLY REPUBLICANS THINK.
IT
IS BOB DOLE'S TURN -- THAT WAS WRONG BECAUSE THEY MISJUDGED HER
POLITICAL POTENCY, SHE IS A DAMAGED CANDIDATE WHO HOPEFULLY
WILL WIN BECAUSE SHE'S RUNNING AGAINST A MADMAN AND HOPEFULLY
ENOUGH PEOPLE RECOGNIZE YOU HAVE TO STOP EVERYTHING YOU ARE
DOING AND VOTE FOR HILLARY CLINTON TO STOP DONALD TRUMP.
>>LAST THING, IS THIS GOING TO AFFECT THE ELECTION?
IF IT IS
TWO POINTS, AS JOHN IS POSITING --
>>I'M JUST RELAYING 538.
>>YOU ARE RELAYING THEIR POSSIBILITY, I UNDERSTAND.
YOU
KNOW WHAT THAT GETS YOU?
FLORIDA, NORTH CAROLINA, NEVADA.
THAT IS GIGANTIC.
AND HOPE IT DOESN'T GET YOU PENNSYLVANIA,
BECAUSE IF IT DOES, DONALD TRUMP IS THE MOST POWERFUL MAN ON