The initial 747 carried two and a half times as many passengers as the manufacturer’s
first jet, the 707. Its size, range, and speed helped transform air travel and turned it
into something more accessible for a wider clientele.
But the era of the massive four-engine aircraft seems to be over. As reports are surfacing
that Boeing will most likely end production of the legendary plane due to insufficient
orders. Let’s examine why the newer 747-8 was not the commercial success Boeing hoped
it would be... The first 747-8I only took flight on March
20th, 2011, and today’s production is limited to the freighter version, the 747-8F.
Boeing predicted it would receive 300 orders for the 747-8. After all, the previous version
of the jumbo, the 747-400, landed at 442 for its regular passenger model, and 694 including
the extra range options and freighters. The -400 was operated by over 40 carriers worldwide.
However, the 747-8 only received 47 orders for the passenger variant and hasn’t sold
a single one since 2017. Lufthansa was the first carrier to order the 747-8i in 2006,
taking delivery of its first in May 2012. The freighter variant of the 747-8 did much
better, with orders tallying in at 103. Its largest customer is UPS, which has 28 - almost
single-handedly responsible for keeping production alive.
While production is still ongoing at Boeing’s Everett facility for the freighter variant,
the 747-8F, this will most likely also come to an end once the manufacturer completes
its backlog of 15 orders. The company believes it will need another two years to complete
the outstanding deliveries. First of all, the same factors that have seen
carrier after carrier send the 747 into retirement come into play. The rise of the much more
fuel-efficient long-range twin-engine aircraft has simply eliminated the need for quadjets.
Two engines are also much more economical than four. Twice the engines equal nearly
twice the maintenance cost, after all. In fact, the 777-9, the larger of the 777X
models, can carry as many as 407 passengers, which is nearly as many as the 747’s maximum
467. And it does so on two engines, rather than four. Airlines have already placed orders
for 309 of the 777X. The launch of the 787 was a factor in the
747’s decline. The 747-8 was introduced in 2005. The planemaker had debuted its Boeing
787 Dreamliner program only a year prior. Despite several hiccups along the way, the
Dreamliner has since proceeded to earn an impressive 1510 orders.
That is just under the total number of orders for all of the 747s combined.
The hub-and-spoke model that made the 747 such a success throughout the years has also
given way to customer-driven point-to-point operations. Passengers have also displayed
a preference for a wider selection of departure times. This makes the large capacity of the
jumbo, as well as the superjumbo, the A380, challenging to fill and thus unpopular with
airlines. As previously stated, Boeing only received
47 orders for the passenger variant of the 747-8. Only three commercial airlines opted
for this aircraft, with Lufthansa taking 19, Korean Air ten, and Air China seven.
As you may have noticed, those numbers combined do not really add up to 47. The missing eleven
orders are made up of eight Business Jet models going to VIP customers, one “unidentified
buyer,” and two 747-8Is previously belonging to now defunct Transaero.
These are to be refitted on request by the US Government to replace the Air Force One
fleet. While it is incredibly sad to be saying goodbye
to the 747, it is understandable that by the time the 747-8 hit the market, more attractive
options were already on the horizon.
Do you think anything could have been done to make the 747-8 more popular? Let us know
in the comments.