I'M JIM SCIUTTO LIVE FROM THE ASPEN SECURITY FORUM IN
COLORADO, A GATHERINOF SOME OF THE WORLD'S MOST SENIOR NATIONAL
SECURITY OFFICIALS. AMONG THEM, THE CIA DIRECTOR WHO
MADE NEWS HERE WHEN HE WAS ASKED ABOUT RUMORS THAT THE RUSSIAN
PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN, THAT HIS HEALTH IS FAILING.
>> THERE ARE LOTS OF RUMORS ABOUT PRESIDENT PUTIN'S HEALTH
AND AS FAR AS WE CAN TELL HE'S ENTIRELY TOO HEALTHY.
NOT A FORMAL INTELLIGENCE JUDGMENT.
>> DAVID SANGER IS THE CNN POLITICAL NATIONAL SECURITY
ANALYST, NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT FOR "THE NEW YORK
TIMES." DAVID, ALSO HERE IN ASPEN WITH
ME. I WONDER, THERE HAS BEEN SO MUCH
SPECULATION ABOUT PUTIN'S HEALTH, SOME BASED ON
PHOTOGRAPHS SHOWING A PUFFY FACE, LOTS OF JUDGMENT FROM THE
OUTSIDE, NOT NECESSARILY BASED ON HARD DATA.
I WONDER IN YOUR VIEW AS THE CIA DIRECTOR PUT THE HEALTH RUMORS
TO BED? >> WELL, CERTAINLY THERE HAS
BEEN A BIG EFFORT, JIM, BY MANY IN THE DIFFERENT INTELLIGENCE
AGENCIES TO DO EXACTLY THAT. THE CONCLUSION YOU HEARD THERE
FROM THE CIA DIRECTOR, WHO, OF COURSE, USED TO BE AN AMBASSADOR
TO RUSSIA AND KNOWS PUTIN WELL, BILL BYRNES, IS COMPLETELY
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WE'RE HEARING FROM THE BRITISH, FROM
EUROPEAN INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES, THEY DON'T BELIEVE THE RUMORS
THAT PUTIN HAS CANCER, THEY DON'T BELIEVE THAT THE PUFFINESS
THAT THEY HAVE SEEN IS CAUSED BY STEROIDS.
AND IN FACT ALL THEIR CONCLUSIONS ARE THAT FOR 69,
NEARLY 70-YEAR-OLD RUSSIAN MALE HE'S DOING A LOT BETTER THAN
AVERAGE. >> ANOTHER HEADLINE FROM THE CIA
DIRECTOR'S COMMENTS YESTERDAY WAS HIS ASSESSMENT OF WHAT
PUTIN'S CALCULATION SEEMS TO BE, THAT PUTIN AND BYRNES IS NOT THE
ONLY ONE WHO SAID THIS, BUT PUTIN BELIEVES HE CAN WAIT NOT
JUST JAUKRAINE OUT, BUT WAIT TH WEST OUT, HE CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE
OF, AS BYRNES DESCRIBED IT, AMERICA'S ATTENTION DEFICIT
DISORDER, THAT IT WILL LOSE INTEREST EVENTUALLY AND LOSE
POLITICAL SUPPORT. I WONDER IS THAT SOMETHING YOU
HEAR FREQUENTLY AND IS THAT SOMETHING THAT FOLKS IN THE UK
AND EUROPE AND THE U.S. FEAR AS WELL?
>> IT CERTAINLY IS, JIM. I THINK THE FACT THAT HE RAISED
IT SO CLEARLY WAS AN EFFORT BY THE ADMINISTRATION TO WARN THAT
THIS IS PUTIN'S STRATEGY. HE ALSO WENT ON TO SAY THAT HE
DOESN'T THINK IT WILL WORK, HE THINKS THAT PUTIN MISCALCULATED
ABOUT UKRAINIAN AND NATO RESOLVE EARLY ON WHEN HE DID THE ATTACK
AND HE WAS WRONG THEN, AND HE'S WRONG NOW.
BUT THERE ARE SOME PIECES OF EVIDENCE ALONG THE WAY, FIRST OF
ALL, THE WAR HAS TURNED INTO THAT GRINDING PHASE THAT I THINK
AMERICANS HAVE LOST SOME ATTENTION.
SECONDLY, EUROPEANS KNOW THAT WINTER IS COMING, AND THAT
SUDDENLY THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO THINK ABOUT RATIONING NATURAL
GAS, AND PERHAPS OIL, THAT IS GOING TO TAKE A TOLL.
AMERICANS THOUGHT THAT THIS WAS PRETTY COST FREE FOR THEM UNTIL
GAS MOVED UP TO $5, $6 A GALLON AND WHILE IT IS COMING DOWN NOW,
IT MAY NOT COME DOWN FAST ENOUGH.
AND, OF COURSE, THE PRESIDENT HIMSELF HAS BLAMED THAT ON
PUTIN, EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE OTHER FACTORS INVOLVED.
SO ALL THOSE THINGS COULD CONTRIBUTE, AND, LOOK, OUR OWN
HISTORY WITH AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ SUGGESTS AMERICANS DO HAVE
AN ATTENTION DEFICIT DISORDER WHEN IT COMES TO FARAWAY
CONFLICTS. >> YOU DO MAKE A GOOD POINT
THERE, THOUGH, THAT DESPITE HIM OFTEN BEING DESCRIBED AS TEN
FEET TALL, PUTIN IN HIS GREAT WISDOM, HE'S BEEN WRONG MULTIPLE
TIMES IN THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS, UKRAINE'S ABILITY TO
REPEL RUSSIAN FORCES. THE CIA DIRECTOR SAID THAT THE
U.S. ESTIMATE NOW OF RUSSIAN LOSSES, 15,000 KILLED, SOME
45,000 INJURED, THAT'S 60,000 AND IN MY EXPERIENCE, THE U.S.
ESTIMATE IS SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW END OF THE SCALE COMPARED TO
OTHER WESTERN INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES.
HOW LONG CAN RUSSIA WITHSTAND THOSE LOSSES?
THOSE ARE THE PERSONNEL LOSSES. WE ALSO KNOW THEY HAD ENORMOUS
LOSSES IN TERMS OF MILITARY HARDWARE.
>> YOU KNOW, THIS IS THE HUGE QUESTION.
PUTIN HAS RESISTED DOING A GENERAL CONSCRIPTION.
AND THE SOLDIERS WHO ARE BEING KILLED, AND THAT'S A REMARKABLE
NUMBER, MORE THAN THREE TIMES WHAT THE UNITED STATES LOST IN
IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN OVER, YOU KNOW, 15, 20 YEARS, RIGHT, THE
PEOPLE WHO ARE BEING KILLED ARE LARGELY FROM POORER SECTIONS AND
OUTLYING SECTIONS OF RUSSIA, THEY'RE NOT THE MIDDLE CLASS
KIDS FROM ST. PETERSBURG WHO, YOU KNOW, HAVE SIGNED UP.
THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG SUPPLY PROBLEM FOR PUTIN.
AND THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO BELIEVE THAT PUTIN IS GOING
TO RUN OUT OF GAS HERE IN THE ABILITY TO HOLD THE DONBAS IN
JUST THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE.
>> YEAH. YEAH, AND, LISTEN, YOU MENTIONED
HOW FAR THE LOSSES, THE WAR ARGUABLY HELPED BRING DOWN THE
SOVIET UNION. DAVID SANGER, ALWAYS GREAT TO
HAVE YOU ON. >> THEY GOT OUT.