So today's headline news, Redfin predicts the sharpest turn in
housing market since the 2008 crash.
That's gonna be our main event for today, but before we go there, what I
want to show you guys are go over the economic calendar to see what in the
economy, what in the markets are affecting housing, especially mortgage rates.
So we do is we go over to our economic calendar.
You could see there's really nothing for today.
We had an action pack week with inflation numbers, job reports, oil,
indexes, and everything else, but there's really nothing coming out today.
But so why is the stock market really crashing?
I don't know if you checked it out yet, but the stock market is crashing
again, and yields on everything.
All interest rates are driving up and up and up.
So let's get over to that section of the equation we have right now,
the two year treasury note, just top 3.9% highest and 15 years.
What's what's the reason behind all this?
Well, the reason behind all this is to cure inflation.
Okay. So.
The federal government or the fed is trying to really curtail inflation
because they have two mandates.
One mandate is to keep crazy price stability a.k.a. inflation.
The other piece of their puzzle is the jobs numbers.
Well, they're saying, and the government's saying, and a lot of
other people are saying, especially on CNBC, that we're not in a recession.
Well, how does some of the biggest companies in the world,
what are they saying about this?
Well, if you go over to here, FedEx, and then the number one reason the markets are
crashing right now is FedEx CEO just came out and says he expects the economy to
enter worldwide, not just a US recession, but a worldwide recession.
So what do you see in a recession?
Well, here's what normally happens.
Check out this video because I just did it the other day explaining to
you guys what happens in recession, wartime, and pandemic time.
It's kind of interesting.
So what normally happens is.
We see the economy robust.
So the, the fed comes in and steps in and drives up rates and drives up rates
and drives up rates until what the economy or inflation starts to cure.
Then what usually happens again, check out that video.
What normally happens is there's a downturn in the
economy and it downturns more.
Then what was expected.
So then what happens is we enter into a recession, the fed then looks
back and says, oh boy, we overreact.
Like they underacted for the last few years.
So then what do they have to do?
They have to then go in and start reducing interest rates.
So that's what we're looking at right now.
The federal reserves probably gonna look at these numbers and say, Hmm,
they're not affecting the economy.
Like we thought they would.
Well, do they realize it's gonna take at least six to 12 months for all the
actions that they're doing to really
rake effect.
So they're not giving it enough time.
So what they're gonna most likely do is overreact.
So in Q4 of this year, going into Q1 of next year, we're
gonna go into a recession.
Everybody's gonna announce that there's a recession, the federal
Reserve's gonna overdo it.
They're gonna have to go in then in Q1 or Q2 and start reducing rates.
At least at that time, they're gonna stagnate what they're
doing because I'm predicting.
Now rates might hit 7% on the trajectory that we're going right now.
But I have one article that I just started out the beginning.
Conversation with that's right here.
It says Redfin predicts the sharpest turn in the housing
market since the 2008 crash.
The article's pretty interesting.
And I'll go through just some key components with you here.
So what, what we go through this article and like, I always say
don't judge a book by its cover, but I wanna stay on this screen.
So you don't think I'm moving around to you to some different screens.
So the first piece of this puzzle I wanna go through is going down through
here, this article, and I'll put the post down below is we're gonna see a few.
It's saying right here, buyers just don't have the 40% extra toward their
housing payment that they had in the past.
So what they're saying is year over year, since last year, and since mortgage
rates have been going up, they've seen, or they've calculated
that mortgage payments have gone up 40%.
Why did about 400 calculations and I can't get 40%.
So first off that one is debunked.
The next piece of this puzzle is when, when you're looking
or talking about a 1.5 million.
I never talk about a five, 1.5 million house.
I don't even live in a 1.5 million house.
So why would I even discuss that?
So the next thing is maybe they worked on a 1.5 million house when the rate was
here and they're comparing adjustable.
I don't know what they're doing.
So I'm not looking at a 1.5 million house,
I don't think you should be either, especially if you're looking to
buy your first house. But as we go through this article, here's the one
big thing that, that just is odd.
So you go down through here and again, I'm just standing on this page.
So you guys don't think I'm switching around on you.
Let's look at this caption right here.
I'm gonna put on my glasses, cuz again, I'm an old fella. Redfin
also said now is still a good time to buy if you qualify for a mortgage,
because you can always refinance.
Well, if they're, if they're saying in the headlines, it's going to
crash and crash as bad as 2008, then in the next context, they're like,
okay, now's a good time to buy.
I'm not even saying now's a good time to buy.
So let's keep reading.
If you can find a house that meets all your needs and you're gonna
stay in in at least five years, it's still a good time to buy.
That's what I've been preaching for years and years and years and
years, but not when I tell a client, well, the market's gonna crash.
But go ahead and buy anyways, because over the years you're gonna be okay.
No, I'm on the side right now.
Now I even said in my last few videos, would I be putting my
toe in the water right now?
No, I'm holding back because I'm waiting for that more inventory to come in as
more and more inventory comes in and, mortgage rates go from six, maybe 7% now.
The market's gonna cool.
Okay.
I never predicted 7%.
I thought our highs was gonna be five and a half percent.
Now we're getting the six,
six and a half seven, my tunes changing a little bit, but I'm not
still expecting a crash wouldn't normally happen in the crash or what
happened in the crash in 2008 S shotty underwriting and a whole ball of wax.
You know what the goal is there and, you know, my analog is there.
So at the end of this video, I'm gonna show you two or one or two
videos to click on, to learn more and more about the 2008 housing crash.
But here's the one thing that just jerks my chain.
Here it is.
This is puts it all in caption.
When ask, if we could enter another housing, financial
crisis, Redfin says it's unlikely.
So what the hell are they talking about up here?
Redfin predicts turns in the housing market.
The worst turn in the housing market since 2008 crash.
I don't get it.
So that's why you need to not always judge a book by its cover.
So why are you here?
Well, the main reason you're probably here is what the heck's going on.
The mortgage rates let's get over to that right now.
So there's really no economic news, like I said today, but the
markets are still getting hammered.
We have MBS is down 17.
What does that mean, guys?
Your call.
If MBS are down, what happens to the rates?
Yes, mortgage rates go up.
So what we see right here on the board is this is what's happening
to the mortgage-backed security.
It's a bond that trades on wall street that its yield is the biggest
component of your mortgage rate.
So when we see the price, this is what you're seeing on the screen.
When you see the price of the bond going down, there's an
inverse relationship, a flip flop relationship with interest rates.
When the price goes down, rates go up.
We love when the price goes up because it drives down.
Look at the chart down here.
Do you see any ups and still in, other than that like five days right there
that we saw about a month or two ago?
No.
So it's been catastrophic for the last few months and almost
coming on a year right now.
Well, based on this, what's going on with mortgage rates?
Well, we're now seeing the highest mortgage rates that
we've seen in 15 years.
Yes.
It just peaked to the highest.
You can see that right down through here, the 52-week high and low.
We basically I'm I hope we don't actually triple, uh, with our low
was, but here's where the here's the six top products people use when
they're buying their first house.
So these are mortgage rates published by mortgages news daily.
It's not my rate sheets.
It's not a lender's rate sheet.
It's basically the national average.
Here's what Mortgages News Daily does they survey mortgages, lenders all over
the country saying if you had a client
$500,000 purchase.
It was looking to buy their primary home first home and they
have a 740 credit score.
They were looking to put 20% down.
It was gonna be their primary home and a single-family home
say that for legal reasons is this is what the rates would be.
You can see right now where at 6.33.
So we're getting close to six and a half.
We haven't seen those since the, maybe the nineties.
Um, but you can see right down through here between the 52-week high and low.
It's nuts.
So here's rates all over the board.
My name is Dan Frio.
If I can help you in any way with a mortgage, I don't care
where you're in the country.
We are federally chartered, meaning we can do your loan if you're anywhere in
the country, as well as Puerto Rico.
If you wanna find out more about me and my team, all you need to
do is go to TheRateUpdate.com.
You can find information about me and my team.
The last thing I want you to tell you is we post all this information on podcasts
and we also have parts of my radio show that I used to do on podcasts as well.
So if you wanna check out those, go to any one of your favorite podcast
stations, Google search or not Google search, search me in there.
Search Dan Frio.
And you're gonna come up with the mortgage update with Dan Frio.
That's me check out the podcast.
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Take care, guys, have a great weekend.
I'll see you next.
Bye-bye.