>> Stephen: WELCOME BACK, EVERYBODY.
WE'RE BACK WITH DONALD RUMSFELD.
OKAY, SECRETARY RUMSFELD, DONALD RUMSFELD, ARE YOU EVER UPSET
THAT NOW THERE IS ANOTHER DONALD OUT THERE WHO IS EVEN MORE
FAMOUS THAN YOU ABOUT NOT APOLOGIZING FOR ANYTHING?
BECAUSE HE WILL NOT BACK DOWN FROM ANYTHING HE'S EVER SAID.
DO YOU-- DOES HE STRIKE YOU AS A COMMANDER IN CHIEF?
>> I DON'T KNOW HIM.
I'VE NEVER MET HIM.
>> Stephen: REALLY?
>> WHAT STRIKES ME ABOUT HIM IS THAT HE'S-- I CAN'T IMAGINE HOW
BERNIE SANDERS AND DONALD TRUMP CAN PULL CROWDS OF 20,000 PEOPLE
TO AN EVENT TO HEAR THEM SPEAK.
PRESIDENTS DON'T DO THAT.
VICE PRESIDENTS DON'T DO THAT.
>> Stephen: I THINK THEY'RE APPEALING ON AN EMOTIONAL LEVEL.
PEOPLE ARE VERY FRUSTRATED WITH WHAT IS GOING ON IN WASHINGTON
AND WHETHER OR NOT YOU AGREE WITH WHAT EITHER MAN IS SAYING,
THEY'RE SAYING I AGREE WITH YOU.
WE HAVE TO CHANGE THE STATUS QUO IN SOME WAYS.
>> I THINK YOU ARE PROBABLY RIGHT.
THEY ARE TOUCHING A NERVE SOMEWHERE.
>> Stephen: DOES THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE AFFECT POLICY OR
IMPLEMENT POLICY?
>> THE PRESIDENT IS THE POLICY MAKER.
AND HE TAKES RECOMMENDATIONS FROM HIS CABINET AND FROM SENIOR
OFFICIALS IN THE WHITE HOUSE.
AND THEN HE MAKES A JUDGEMENT.
HE DECIDES WHAT OUGHT TO BE DONE.
AND THE AMERICAN PEOPLE BASICALLY DECIDE BECAUSE THEY
DECIDE WHO IS GOING TO BE PRESIDENT.
AND THAT'S THE WAY THE SYSTEM WORKS.
>> Stephen: WHEN THE DECISION WAS PLAYED TO GO INTO IRAQ IN
2003, THE SITUATION THAT WE HAVE NOW WHICH IS A CHAOTIC IRAQ AND
SYRIA WITH CONTROL OF ISIS AND OR THE CHAOS FOLLOWING THE ARAB
SPRING IN AREAS AS WELL, IS THE SITUATION WE HAVE NOW, WAS IT
EVER CONSIDERED TO BE AN OUTCOME?
WAS THIS A WORST-CASE SCENARIO OR A BEYOND WORST-CASE SCENARIO?
>> I THINK THE DISORDER IN THE ENTIRE REGON AND THE CONFLICT
BETWEEN THE SUNNIES AND THE SHIA IS SOMETHING THAT GENERALLY
PEOPLE HAD NOT ANTICIPATED.
ON THE OTHER HAND, IF YOU THINK WHAT EISENHOWER SAID, HE SAID
THE PLAN IS NOTHING, PLANNING IS EVERYTHING.
THE POINT BEING THAT ANYTHING CHANGES WITH FIRST CONTACT WITH
A PROBLEM.
THE ENEMY HAS A BRAIN.
THEY MAKE DECISIONS.
PEOPLE ASK ME WELL, WHY ARE THEY DOING WHAT THEY'RE DOING.
AND THE ANSWER IS THEY'RE DOING WHAT THEY ARE DOING BECAUSE THEY
CAN DO IT.
BECAUSE THEY DON'T HAVE BIG ARMIES, BIG NAVIES, BIG AIR
FORCES WHICH THEY CAN'T COMPETE WITH US.
SO THEY ARE ATTACKING FROM AN ASSYMETRICAL STANDPOINT AND
THEY'RE TRYING TO DESTROY THE NATION STATE CONCEPT IN THE
WORLD.
THE FIRST THING THEY DO IS TO ELIMINATE A BORDER, FOR EXAMPLE,
BETWEEN IRAQ AND SYRIA.
>> Stephen: THE TOP TWO REPUBLICANS AND THE TOP TWO
DEMOCRATS, NONE OF THEM THINK THAT GOING INTO IRAQ WAS THE
RIGHT CHOICE TO MAKE.
DO YOU HAVE ANY REFLECTION ON THE DECISION TO GO INTO IRAQ?
DO YOU STILL THINK IT WAS THE RIGHT THING TO DO 12 YEARS
LATER?
>> I THINK WHEN THE PRESIDENT MADE THE DECISION, THERE
WERE-- THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT HAD OPPOSED SOMETHING LIKE 15 OR 16
U.S. RESOLUTIONS.
THEY WERE REPROSSIVE.
THEY HAD USED CHEMICAL WEAPONS ON THEIR NEIGHBORS, THE
IRANIANS.
THEY USED CHEMICAL WEAPONS ON THEIR OWN POPULATION, THE KURDS.
AND THERE WAS A LOT OF EVIDENCE THAT THEY-- THEY ALREADY USED
CHEMICAL WEAPONS.
AND IT SEEMS TO ME THE PRESIDENT GIVEN THE FACTS HE HAD FROM THE
INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY MADE THE RIGHT DECISION.
IN RETROSPECT, THEY DIDN'T FIND LARGE CASHES-- CACHES OF
CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS.
ALTHOUGH THE U.N. INSPECTOR DID SAY THEY HAD THE FACILITIES
STILL THERE, THE PEOPLE WERE STILL THERE, THEY HAD THE
CAPABILITY AND THE PRECURSORS TO THESE WEAPONS WERE STILL THERE.
AND THEY COULD HAVE RECONSTITUTED THEM IN A MATTER
OF WEEKS.
>> Stephen: THERE IS ONE QUESTION THAT GETS ASKED OF YOU
AND OTHER PEOPLE WHO WERE IN FAVOR OF THE INVASION OF 2003 IN
IRAQ THAT I JUST QUESTION I DON'T THINK IS FAIR.
WHICH IS.
>> THEN WHY ASK AN UNFAIR QUESTION.
>> Stephen: NO, NO, NO I WILL TELL YOU WHY I THINK IT'S
UNFAIR, I WILL ASK A DIFFERENT QUESTION.
I THINK THIS QUESTION IS UNFAIR, WHICH IS IF YOU KNEW NOW-- IF
YOU KNEW THEN WHAT YOU KNEW NOW, WOULD YOU MAKED SAME DECISION.
YOU ONLY THEN WHAT YOU KNOW THEN.
>> THAT'S RIGHT.
>> Stephen: YOU ONLY NOW NOW WHAT YOU KNOW NOW.
AND OUR NOW IS TOMORROW'S THEN.
SO THEY'LL BE SAYING THE SAME THINGS TO THE DECISIONS GETS
MADE TODAY, 15 YEARS FROM NOW.
>> IT'S TRUE.
>> Stephen: BUT THAT LEADS ME TO YOUR MOST FAMOUS SAYING WHICH
IS TALKING ABOUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE WORLD.
THAT THERE ARE NO KNOWNS, THINGS WE KNOW WE KNOW, AND TELL ME IF
I GET THIS WRONG.
CUZ I KNOW THIS IS YOUR BABY.
THERE ARE KNOWN UNKNOWNS.
THINGS WE KNOW THAT WE DON'T KNOW.
AND THERE ARE ALSO UNKNOWNS UNKNOWNS.
>> BUT IN THIS CASE, ISN'T THE ONE THAT GOT US SOMETHING THAT
IS-- THERE'S A FOURTH OPTION THAT NO ONE EVER TALKS ABOUT.
WHICH IS THE UNKNOWN KNOWNS.
WHICH IS THE THING THAT WE KNOW, AND THEN WE CHOOSE NOT TO KNOW
THEM OR NOT LET OTHER PEOPLE KNOW WE KNOW.
THAT THERE ARE SOME THINGS-- (APPLAUSE).
>> Stephen: RECENTLY A 2002 MEMO FROM THE JOINT CHIEFS OF
STAFF SAYS THAT 90% OF THE.
>> I'M GOING TO SAVE YOU EMBARRASSMENT.
>> Stephen: I CAN'T BE EMBARRASSED, I'M A COMEDIAN.
THIS THING CAME OUT, IT SAYS OUR KNOWLEDGE OF THE IRAQI NEW CLEAR
WEAPONS PROGRAM IS BASED LARGELY PERHAPS 90% ON ANALYSIS OF
IMPRECISE INTELLIGENCE.
SO THERE IS ANALYSIS OF INTELLIGENCE THAT YOU BELIEVE
THAT THERE ARE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION IN IRAQ, AND I
BELIEVE THAT SIN CERTIFICATELY.
I DON'T THINK ANYBODY MADE UP THE BELIEF THAT THERE WERE
WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION.
THAT IS CYNICISM BEYOND I WOULD EVER WANT TO THINK OF MY
GOVERNMENT.
I BELIEVE THAT EVERYBODY BELIEVED THAT THEY WERE THERE.
BUT THERE WAS NO HARD PROOF THAT THEY WERE THERE.
>> UH-HUH.
>> Stephen: AND YET IT WAS PRESENTED TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE
AS IF THERE WAS.
SO THERE WAS AN UNKNOWN KNOWN FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.
IT WAS KNOWN THAT THERE WAS NOT HARD EVIDENCE, BUT WE WERE
PRESENTED A PARTIAL PICTURE.
AND THAT'S THE UNKNOWN KNOWN THAT WE WERE DENIED.
DO YOU THINK THAT WAS THE RIGHT THING TO DO?
>> WELL, FIRST OF ALL, THAT MEMO WAS SENT BY THE JOINT CHIEFS OF
STAFF.
>> Stephen: YES.
>> AND WE PUT IT ON MY WEBSITE.
>> Stephen: UH-HUH.
>> AND MADE IT PUBLIC YEARS AGO.
>> Stephen: I KNOW IT'S DECLASSIFIED.
>> WELL, YEAH, BUT-- I DON'T PUT CLASSIFIED THINGS ON MY WEBSITE.
(LAUGHTER) I WANT YOU TO KNOW THAT.
>> Stephen: ALL RIGHT.
YOU CAN GET IN TROUBLE FOR THAT.
>> YEAH.
>> Stephen: I'M NOT TRYING TO YOU AN UNFAIR QUESTION, I'M
TRYING TO ASK YOU WHAT I THINK IS A FAIR THING.
WERE THERE THINGS THAT THE ADMINISTRATION, OR YOU KNEW THAT
WE DIDN'T LEARN ABOUT OUT OF THE BEST POSSIBLE INTENTIONS WHICH
IS THERE WERE THINGS THAT WOULD UNDERMINE THE CASE FOR A WAR YOU
THOUGHT WAS NECESSARY TO SAVE THE UNITED STATES.
>> THE PRESIDENT HAD A AVAILABLE TO HIM INTELLIGENCE FROM ALL
ELEMENTS OF THE GOVERNMENT.
AND THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL MEMBERS HAD THAT
INFORMATION.
IT WAS ALL SHARED.
IT WAS ALL SUPPLIED.
AND IT'S NEVER CERTAIN, IF IT WERE-- IF IT WERE A FACT, IT
WOULDN'T BE CALLED INTELLIGENCE.
>> Stephen: WOW.
I THINK YOU ANSWERED MY QUESTION.
(LAUGHTER) I MEAN-- IS INTELLIGENCE IS
TOUGH TO DO.
AND WHAT YOU DO IS YOU LOOK AT ALL OF THAT AND IF YOU'VE GOT A
CERTAIN SET OF FACTS THAT YOU CAN NEVER FIE 100 PERCENT, AND
THEN THERE IS INFORMATION THAT IS NOT CAPABLE OF BEING VERIFIED
100 PERCENT, AND IT'S OUT OF THAT AGGREGATION OF INFORMATION
THAT PRESIDENTS MAKE DECISIONS ALL THE TIME.
>> Stephen: I GUESS THE ULTIMATE QUESTION IS, IS THAT
BECAUSE THERE TURNED OUT TO BE NO WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION
AND BECAUSE THE AMERICAN PEOPLE NOW FEEL A MAJORITY THAT IT WAS
THE WRONG WAR, DO YOU THINK IT UNDERMINES OUR TRUST OF THE
GOVERNMENT, THAT IS NECESSARY FOR YOUR INTELLIGENCE APPARATUS
THAT YOU ARE DESCRIBING TO DO THEIR JOB.
BECAUSE IF YOU SAY TRUST US, WE'VE GOT THIS, AND YOU GET IT
SO WRONG, ISN'T ANOTHER LEVEL OF DAMAGE THAT WE WON'T TRUST THEM
NEXT TIME.
>> I THINK THERE'S ALWAYS A RISK THAT PEOPLE LOOKING AT
GOVERNMENT WILL COME TO THE CONCLUSION THAT THEY MAY NOT BE
RIGHT.
THAT IS WHY WE HAVE A DEMOCRACY.
I MEAN THAT'S WHY PEOPLE VOTE AND THEY MAKE JUDGEMENTS.
AND WE-- I THINK MOST PEOPLE IN THE UNITED STATES UNDERSTAND
THAT GOVERNMENT IS NOT PERFECT.
I MEAN LOOK HOW LONG IT TAKES TO GET SNOW REMOVED.
BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, I THINK WHAT'S REALLY IMPORTANT ARE THE
INTENTIONS AND THE CAPABILITY OF THE PEOPLE AND FOR THE MOST
PART, I THINK IT WAS CHURCHILL WHO SAID THAT DEMOCRACY IS THE
WORSE FORM OF GOVERNMENT EXCEPT FOR ANY OTHER THAT'S EVER BEEN
TRIED.
AND-- .
>> Stephen: YOU NO HE WHAT ELSE HE SAID?
TRY MY SOLITAIRE GAME.
CHURCHILL SOLITAIRE.
DONALD RUMSFELD, EVERYBODY.
THANK YOU, SIR.
>> THANK YOU.
>> Stephen: IT IS AN HONOR TO TALK WITH YOU.