we're obsessed with the future this
reveals a fundamental capability of
human beings that we can perceive the
flow of time we know we're coming from
the past and heading into the future and
we really want to know what's waiting
for us there who better to ask about
that then
futurists right but when you ask them
about our future with artificial
intelligence
something frustrating happens those
futurists disagree not by little but by
as much as they possibly could
one group predicts AI creating a utopia
curing everything from disease and
cancer to ageing and death another says
that AI could wipe us out you know it
seems to me that if your job is to
predict the future you ought to be in a
little more agreement on something as
fundamental as I don't know what the
survival of the entire human race
they literally couldn't be further apart
only other experts I know that of that
far apart on anything of one's you right
the investment newsletters I should
probably stop reading why our futurists
in such disagreement over stakes so
important as a threat to our very
existence because this is different from
other existential threats like say an
asteroid coming towards the earth unless
you're one of the people I've worked
with at NASA or a billionaire with your
own rocket company you're not
participating in the solution to that
problem but because AI has the potential
to rival or surpass us at decision
making now a future where that depends
very much on what we all do
and that is something the futurists have
not predicted so what do we do about it
I've worked with many people around the
world on that question from schools to
boardrooms and their reactions range
from anticipation to terror but mostly
also overwhelm where do we start we
start by shifting our thinking the first
shift is to stop seeing futurists as
this small group of authors in
turtleneck sweaters on talk shows but
instead to own that we are all futurists
because we're all continually predicting
and creating the future it's just that
most of us are doing that unconsciously
but we can no longer afford to remain
unconscious not when technology is
expanding exponentially and that's about
to become a big problem you see it
always used to be that technology was
the slower one in our partnership like
we were dragging a three-year-old
through an airport trying to make our
flight come on hurry up stole my files
faster send my emails faster don't help
my calls faster but now the tables are
turned technology has caught up now we
are the three-year-olds
the faster it goes the faster we go
alarm rings you get up microwave beeps
you eat Siri says time for work you
leave the car says turn left here
you do it the phone rings you answer it
email arrives you read it studies show
that the more technologically advanced a
country is the faster the pace of life
that we're walking 10% faster than we
did 10 years ago that the median time to
respond to an email is now under two
hours because we checked our email and
messages on average every six minutes 81
percent of US employees check their work
email outside of business hours over 40%
of our day is spent multitasking so if
you make it all the way through my talk
without looking at your phone
congratulations you're bucking the trend
who said it had to be like this we did
we collectively made up those rules
unconsciously for the most part to be
sure but that's what unconscious
futurists do right we did that and while
the human brain isn't getting any bigger
there's no limit to how fast computers
could get when AI is a million times
faster what could it be doing automation
isn't only for mundane repetitive tasks
AI is already performing solid
white-collar professional jobs you need
a sharp analytical mind for like
radiologists and paralegal as AI evolves
its power will go into making
increasingly sophisticated decisions how
might that turn out imagine for an
example not far in the future the CEO of
a major company let's call her Jill
sitting in her office when a device on
her desk somewhat like a high-tech
hockey puck sounds a chime hmm
it is the enterprise AI calling with a
question
ma'am there is nothing if not polite
ma'am real-time marketing survey show
increasing interest among the 37 to 49
demographic in the southeast to an
extension of our secondary product line
shall I begin the design and marketing
phases
well Jill thanks for a minute and says
well let me see I'm going to need some
more information
but the puck cuts her off sorry it's a
Canadian hey yeah sorry
but there were signs our competition was
going to move into this area so I did it
anyway
pre-sales are already up 2.7 percent if
that smug little puck
is right even most of the time what's
still going to do particularly if her
competitions CEO just went to the golf
course left his puck on full automatic
so it didn't even have to wait for his
approval
well sure that sounds great for him now
that how long until his board of
directors or hers decides they're no
longer worth as much as they're being
paid if that's the future waiting for
CEOs what are we creating for the
million use as technology gets
incomprehensibly faster what will become
of our pace of work what will become of
our place at work
we've been running faster and faster on
our hamster wheels so long we've not
noticed that now technology is the ones
spinning the wheels if you're running
that rat race so your company can defeat
the competition with superior technology
then what is the prize
how might technology spin those wheels
faster we're now implanting computers
the size of a rice grain in everyday
things
spoons fill bottles keys so we can
connect them to the network and make
them smart within a few years everything
our phones need to do will fit in an
equally small space but then there would
be rather easy to lose in the kitchen
drawer yes don't worry we'll solve that
by keeping them in here we'll all be
able to hear voices in our heads by then
we'd better have this relationship with
artificial intelligence worked out well
the way in which technology sets the
pace of life will take on a whole new
meaning this isn't just about work/life
balance when a I get so fast outstrips
our ability to adapt it will trigger an
existential crisis despite what I just
said we're not in a deal with AI because
it really can create utopia it's a
partnership and in any partnership both
sides need to adjust but when they get
it right the whole is greater than the
sum of the parts
we've begun to experience the effects of
this as AI holds up a mirror to us it
requires us to decide what it means to
be human who do you want to be in that
future to avoid the crisis we need to
become conscious futurists start with a
personal vision where you draw the lines
between what you want technology to do
for you and what you want for yourself
for instance getting AI to answer the
phone when telemarketers call yes
getting it to talk to your spouse no
keeping track of your workouts yes
keeping you at a desk instead of going
to the gym no printing paychecks yes
breaking the news to someone that
they're laid off extend this thinking to
the workplace to make conscious futurism
an integral function of your business
don't assume that disruption won't
affect you educate yourself on
technology trends within your industry
maybe you create a department of
futuring or appoint a chief feature as
an officer their job and yours will be
to decide what you will automate and
what fulfills your people give those
people your fellow futurists the time to
do conscious futuring we've been using
more and more technology in the belief
that it would give us more and more time
and instead it's left us with less and
less if you don't think technology is
yet giving you the freedom to allow
people time to see the big picture then
when is it supposed to remember
neither employees nor managers I'm going
to be able to keep up with those pucks
so if you don't start asking those
questions and making those decisions now
they'll get exponentially harder we're
all in this together so reach across
organizational hierarchies and ask each
other how do you see us thriving in a
future of smart AI and how can we get
off those hamster wheels to do that
we fooled ourselves that the rules of
this world were made by a few
politicians captains of industry and
thought leaders but they didn't decide
by themselves how we would use
technology we all made those rules
together consciously we can change them
won't be easy but utopia has to be
earned when a handful of futurists
predict the future they disagree when
all of us are futurists we won't predict
the future we'll create it and then we
really will know what's waiting for us
thank you
you