The Chinese aircraft carrier building programme symbolises the winds of change for the naval
superiority of the Western world.
Two carriers, Liaoning and Shandong, are in service of the People's Liberation Army Navy,
and the third one, Fujian, counts the days to join the fleet.
As the Weapon Detective, we are investigating the Chinese aircraft carriers and what they
mean.
When we made a video about Liaoning and Shandong three years ago, we defined them as just training
ships/demonstrators.
The design of the newly built Fujian seems to be confirming our assumption.
The current phase of the aircraft carrier programme of the People's Liberation Army
Navy, shortly PLAN, can be defined as preparing for the future, not a naval build-up.
To better understand what is going on today, we should briefly look at the historical background
of this adventure first.
When the First Cold War began, the situation on the seas was not good for the Eastern Bloc.
The U.S. Navy had an unchallenging position in terms of technological and overwhelming
numeric advantage.
Also, the U.S. sailors, who had inherited the Anglo-Saxon naval tradition, sharpened
their experience and skills during the war.
Besides, the United Kingdom and France, which had big fleets and experienced sailors, were
allies of the U.S.A.
Catching up Western navies in a few decades was an impossible goal for the U.S.S.R.
So, Moscow prioritized other military projects.
Besides, the oceans had secondary importance for the U.S.S.R., which was essentially a
land empire, anyways.
So, Moscow organized the surface fleet to protect some defined areas called bastions.
In a possible Third World War, numerous Soviet submarines and bombers would raid Western
sea lines and surface combatants in the oceans.
The Soviet Navy never considered the control of the high sea as the primary objective.
It was the most logical choice.
But also, the Soviet Navy gradually increased its surface fleet to balance its rival in
the long term.
It commissioned the Moskva-class helicopter carriers in the late 1960s.
Then, the U.S.S.R. built three Kiev and one Baku class aircraft carrying cruisers throughout
the 1970s and 1980s.
And just before the sundown of the First Cold War, The U.S.S.R launched the aircraft carrying
cruiser Leonid Brezhnev.
We know her as Admiral Flota Sovetskogo Soyuza Kuznetsov today.
These seven sisters could not match the Western fleet, but they were proper steps to achieve
this goal someday.
While the sun set on the Red Star in the 1980s, it began to rise on the Red Dragon.
Since then, its rising economy has increased the importance of sea lines for China.
So, the PLAN has rapidly transformed from a litoral navy to an open sea navy.
Actually, since the 1970s, China has been interested in aircraft carriers.
It bought the former Australian aircraft carrier HMAS Melbourne to scrap and acquired the former
Soviet aircraft carrying cruisers Minsk and Kiev to convert into tourist attractions.
With these so-called non-military purchases, China gained valuable know-how about aircraft
carrier technologies and designs.
Initially, Beijing had aimed to proceed with little steps, as Moscow did in First Cold
War.
China bought the Varyag from Ukraine in 1998.
Launched in 1988, she was the second Kuznetsov class carrier.
Her construction work was 68 per cent completed when the U.S.S.R collapsed.
Still, many Chinese naval planners were not enthusiastic about such a transformation.
So, Beijing progressed slowly.
But, the Kosovo War accelerated the process.
When a U.S. combat aircraft accidentally bombed the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade in 1999, the
Chinese naval planners realized that the country needed considerable force projection capability
to maintain its economic and political expansion.
Having a carrier was not an option but a necessity for the PLAN.
However, the 1936 Montreux Convention, which did not allow aircraft carriers to pass the
Turkish Straits, stood as a problem.
At that time, Varyag did not have an engine, so it was not accepted as an actual naval
ship.
Also, China guaranteed that it would use her as a tourist attraction.
Besides, Beijing promised Turkey more tourism and trading privileges as a little bribe.
Thus, Vargay passed the Turkish Straits.
As everybody expected, China did not keep its word and completed the construction of
the Varyag.
The PLAN commissioned the ship on September 25, 2012, as Liaoning.
Unlike her Russian sister, Admiral Flota Sovetskogo Soyuza Kuznetsov, Liaoning does not have a
12-tube P-700 surface-to-surface missile launcher.
So, the ship has more space for hangar or storage.
Also, China equipped the aircraft carrier with domestically developed sub-systems such
as the Type 381 3D active electronically scanned array radar.
Besides, she has the Chinese-made H/PJ14 and FL-3000N close-in weapon systems.
The PLAN operates the J-15s on the carrier.
This combat aircraft was developed based on the J-11, the Chinese reverse-engineering
version of the Su-27.
Liaoning also carries Z-18F anti-submarine warfare, Z-18J airborne early warning and
Z-9C rescue helicopters.
The complement of Liaoning is 2,626 people.
Its fully-loaded displacement is 67,500 tons.
The ship has a length of 306.4 metres, a beam of 74.4 metres, and a draught of 8,97 metres.
The top speed of the carrier is 32 knots, and with this speed, she can reach the 3,850
nautical miles range without replenishment.
In general mission, Liaoning carries 24 J-15 fighters, six Z-18F, four Z-18J, and two Z-9C
helicopters.
The PLAN commissioned the second Chinese aircraft carrier, Shandong, on December 17, 2019.
The ship has design improvements, like a larger hangar and storage facility.
Thus, she can carry more aircraft, ammunition and jet fuel.
Shandong also has a smaller island, which provides more space for aircraft on deck.
The fleet command and flight control towers are on separate floors, which provides more
efficiency.
The fully-loaded displacement of Shandong is 70,000 tons.
The ship has a length of 305 metres and a beam of 75 metres.
The top speed of the carrier is 31 knots.
In general mission, Shandong carries 32 fighters and 12 helicopters.
The third carrier, Fujian, was launched on June 17, 2022.
She is the first Chinese carrier with a fully indigenous design and has many different features
from her predecessors.
Unlike Liaoning and Shandong, which have short take-off but arrested recovery systems, Fujian
has a catapult-assisted take-off but arrested recovery system.
She is also fitted with electromagnetic catapults.
The carrier will operate the new B variant of the J-15, which features modern fifth-generation
avionics, active electronically scanned array radar, new airframes, stealth coatings, and
new engines with possible thrust-vectoring capability.
Also, the KJ-600 aircraft will replace the helicopters in airborne early-warning missions.
So, we can easily see that Fujian has an entirely different design philosophy.
You can find these pieces of information from many internet sources.
Let's focus on what they tell us.
First, we should check on Chinese overseas interests.
Today, China is the factory of the world.
This factory needs raw materials, energy, and markets.
The Middle East and Africa are the primary sources of raw materials and energy.
These two parts of the world are linked with China by sea lines.
So, Beijing has to secure these sea lines by any means.
Could three Chinese aircraft carriers secure these routes?
The answer depends on which sea power would disturb them.
Let's analyse the countries where these sealines.
India, which has many problems with China, is in the middle of these sealines.
Three carriers will not be enough to control the Indian Ocean since the Indian Navy will
fight at home.
Yes, a possible Sino-Indian War may be the only war scenario in which the world would
not join.
At least in the short term.
To join the war, The Western world will probably wait until these two giants wear each other
out.
So, even though Liaoning, Shandong and Fujian will manage to destroy the Indian Navy, all
might of the Western navies will intervene in this not-so-possible victory.
If China declares war on other countries throughout these important sea lines, the Western navies
would almost immediately join the war.
So, we may say that the current carrier fleet of the PLAN cannot secure the lines in a great
war.
Still, three aircraft carriers are a high deterrent factor for a possible attacker.
They might have little impact in an offensive war scenario, yet, Liaoning, Shandong and
Fujian are enough to force enemies of China to think twice.
The piracy and terrorist groups on these sea lines also threaten the interests of China.
But, the other surface combatants, like destroyers and frigates, are enough to deal with them.
The carriers do not provide a meaningful tactical advantage against these threats.
The disputes over Paracel and Spratly Islands are the third important topic.
Three aircraft carriers provide significant leverage to China.
Still, China has a different political culture from the Western world.
It is passive-aggressive.
Beijing can wait for long.
China increases its economic, military and diplomatic power year by year.
So, the time is currently the ally of the Red Dragon.
In the end, Beijing could reach enough diplomatic power and solve these problems to its benefit
without a single shot.
What is the actual value of these three carriers?
If you have money and technical capability, you can build aircraft carriers.
Yes, China has them.
But the real problems are to have effective tactics and skilled staff.
These problems can only be solved by getting experience, in other words, by time.
In this respect, Liaoning and Shandong were only training ships and demonstrators.
They have provided valuable experience and a baseline to build up.
Fujian symbolizes that the PLAN staff grasps Liaoning and Shandong's experience and takes
the next step.
But, she has no real value other than being a training ship/demonstrator.
Even though it took the second step, China is still at the bottom of the ladder.
The PLAN staff knows catching Western naval tradition requires long and challenging work.
Building new ships cannot solve the problem alone.
But new ships provide the opportunity to start achieving this goal over time.
If China continues its work dedicatedly, probably after a few decades, the world will say everything
began with Liaoning and Shandong.
And the sun may rise from the East again.
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