Good afternoon everyone, this is your captain speaking
Many people in the rich world are wondering…
…when they’ll next be able to go on a foreign holiday…
And while the answer to that remains unclear…
…what is more certain…
…is that travel in the post-pandemic world will be different
So what will the key changes look like?
And what do they mean for holiday-makers…
…business travellers and those working in the industry?
Monday afternoon on the beach
Sonia came to the Canary Islands for a short break last year…
…and decided to stay
The pandemic has changed…
…how many people think about travel…
…and its relationship with their working lives
And Sonia is one of a growing number of travellers…
…who are now mixing business and pleasure…
…thanks to the growing acceptability of remote working
Before, I was Head of Sales
I was basically all the time very busy
And when I first arrived, it was like for me, perfect
Sonia is combining a prolonged holiday…
…with working from La Palma…
…one of the smallest Canary Islands
So we try to find the balance…
…between working and also having a good time…
…and enough time to breathe, travel…
…and see more about the nature
According to travel firm Expedia…
…three-quarters of Americans…
…would like to combine work and a holiday
And some in the travel industry…
…think working holidays offer opportunities both now…
…and in the future
Nacho Rodriguez runs the house Sonia is staying in…
…and says business is booming
We’ve seen a humongous increase in demand
A lot of knowledge workers that were based in Dublin…
…in London, they decided to relocate and visit warmer places…
…like the Canary Islands
The outlook is bleaker…
…for those offering more traditional accommodation…
…such as hotels and resorts
Tourism accounts for 40% of jobs on the islands
But the number of visitors in December…
…was 81% lower than the year before
In the past few months…
…Nacho has helped hotel owners fill their empty rooms…
…with remote workers
And even the regional government…
…is coming to him for advice…
…on how to get more people to the islands
Certainly the interest of the regional government has increased…
…because traditional tourists weren’t coming
Therefore they had the urge to understand…
…what other alternatives they could promote
But it remains to be seen…
…whether the numbers of people combining work and a holiday…
…will rise in the post-pandemic world
And for now this is only an option…
…open to a privileged minority…
So it will take much more than an influx of digital nomads…
…to restore visitors to pre-pandemic levels
The reason for this…
…is that the devastation to international travel…
…caused by covid-19 is like nothing seen before
Prior to the pandemic…
…the number of international tourists…
…had been rising fairly steadily for the past 30 years
But last year the number of people travelling…
…dropped to levels last seen in the 1980s
And one sector that is suffering as a result is air travel
When we had the 9/11 terrorist attacks…
…or the global financial crisis…
…we didn’t see air travel fall by more than 3% in a calendar year…
…whereas last year it fell 66%
No one can say when…
…or even if flying is going to recover
The best guess from industry trade association IATA…
…is that flights could be back at 2019 levels…
…in the next three years
But the recovery could take much longer
The prospects of recovery for long-haul flights…
…look particularly grim
This is because long-haul carriers…
…rely on business fares…
…to subsidise the cheap seats at the back of the plane
And the pandemic has hit corporate trips hard
According to a poll conducted in December…
…89% of firms…
…had cancelled most or all international business travel
And although this may pick up…
…the consensus among most analysts…
…is that between 20 and 25% of work trips…
…could be gone for good
Which is bad news for legacy airlines
Business travel is a really important sector…
…particularly the long-haul airlines…
…because it’s really the driver of profitability
It’s the driver of the financial viability of the routes
Several long-haul carriers have already been bailed out with state aid
But it’s not clear what happens when the money needs to be repaid
So, fares on some long-haul routes…
…look set to rise–meaning fewer people will be able…
…to afford exotic holidays
But the outlook for short-haul flights looks sunnier
The sector is set to make a quicker recovery
Many budget airlines are less reliant on business fares
Some, like Europe’s largest airline Ryanair…
…have used the pandemic…
…to cut costs further…
…to keep their fares low
We’ve lowered our labour costs
We’ve lowered our aircraft costs
We’re negotiating recovery discounts with a lot of our airports
And fuel is lower
I think it is the most exciting era in my 25 or 30 years in this business
But Michael O’Leary’s predictions that planes and beaches in Europe…
…could be busy as soon as this summer…
…may be going too far…
…and have more to do with his famous salesman bravado
The company has just had to pull this advert…
…for encouraging travellers to break covid restrictions
So you could jab and go
And the emergence of new variants of the virus…
…means travel in Europe and other parts of the world…
…is currently getting harder…
…not easier…
…thanks to restrictions such as quarantines and border closures
The virus looks set to be a feature of life for years to come…
…and that makes one significant change to travel likely
You will have to pack more than just your passport in future
Some in the industry…
…believe travellers will have to carry proof of vaccination…
…to leave the country
But these so-called “vaccine passports”…
…are not without problems
The rate at which the world is being vaccinated varies…
…and some poorer countries will not get the jab for several years…
…meaning they could be effectively shut out of global travel
If you start requiring vaccination or vaccines…
…as a pre-requisite to travel…
…we believe that that’s unfair…
…and that’s going to drive discrimination
…and that’s going to be impacting not only travel…
…but in other areas
Another possibility…
…is that you’ll have to travel with a new app on your phone…
…to prove your covid status
A variety of digital health apps are currently being trialled…
…that translate a negative covid test into a QR code…
…and allow travellers to prove they are covid-free quickly and easily
Ladies and gentlemen welcome to the United Airlines
And in time they could become as central to travel as a passport
Bye London
It should allow trust that the traveller, you know, has been tested…
…and that should give governments the confidence…
…to, you know, remove any restrictions…
…and I think that’s a sort of critical next step for opening up markets
In the meantime…
…the drop in travellers is giving the tourism industry…
…a rare chance for a reboot
Many destinations are rethinking the type of visitors…
…they attract…
…and considering how to make tourism more sustainable
In Amsterdam…
…the city is considering a ban on non-residents buying cannabis…
…to attract a better class of tourist
Machu Picchu in Peru is introducing new visitor limits
And Barcelona has run a campaign…
…to encourage people to venture away from the old city
The sustainability agenda is another one that has been accelerated…
…which is great
It’s not only the governments…
…it’s not only the private sector…
…it is also the traveller that needs to be more responsible
The traveller now needs to make sure that…
…the impact of the trip…
…is benefiting more the community
Back in the Canary Islands…
…Nacho is also thinking along these lines…
…by encouraging visitors to some of the less well-known islands
Hi Sonia, how are you, how are things going?
Very well, very happy
This is the first time he’s hosted people on La Palma…
…and he hopes this interest in slower and more sustainable travel…
…rather than mass tourism and package holidays…
…will continue beyond the pandemic
We have to think that the Canary Islands…
…received almost 15m tourists in 2019
So that’s a lot of people
And that’s actually in some way unsustainable
If you consider the economic side of things…
…most of those tour operators are based in their home countries…
…so the benefit of those people travelling to the Canaries…
…not necessarily stays in the local community
Getting travel back on its feet is not just about holidays
It’s a multi-billion dollar industry…
…and the backbone of the globalised world
Building back in the right way…
…could mean both a more seamless experience for travellers…
…and a more sustainable future…
…for the industry that supports them