After the ninth round of Premier League fixtures, Manchester United ranked 14th
for the volume of goals and expected goals (xG) that they had conceded this season.
Prior to beating Tottenham, they have kept only one clean sheet in 20 games
across all competitions, a record which was joint-worst among all Premier League teams.
They also hadn’t kept a clean sheet at Old Trafford since April 15,
against Granada in the Europa League. And the last time they kept a clean
sheet at home in the Premier League was against West Ham United on March 14th.
So, United’s defence is a problem – what’s going wrong?
It’s useful to look at their approach out of possession.
When United have played in a more compact shape and employed a counter-attack under
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, they have had a great deal of success.
However, this season they are simply too easy to play through.
Using data from StatsBomb via FBref, we can look at the location of the pressures that United
have made. Solskjaer’s men are actually about league average in the proportion they make in
the attacking third, with nearly a quarter (23.7 per cent) coming within that area of the pitch.
Nearly half the pressures United make are in midfield, which is not uncommon.
However, there are a few too many occasions where those pressures feel more reactive
than proactive after the opposition have broken through the attacking line too easily.
Not having a high-pressing style does not necessarily mean a team is poorer at defending.
However, what was worrying was Solskjaer’s declaration of United’s defensive approach
against Liverpool in his post-match interview.
“We’re at home, we’re playing against Liverpool, we’ve come here over the last two and half years
and had a similar approach to go high press…. think at Man United
we should always try at home to go and stamp our authority on the game”
So, the intention was there, but the execution wasn’t.
Just 11 per cent of the total pressures made by United were in the attacking third.
Typically, teams will either stay compact out of possession or if they do press, do it with
speed and as a team. Unfortunately, United did neither. Their running might have constituted a
“pressure” within the numbers, but qualitatively they were certainly too slow in the press.
The first goal conceded against Liverpool is a damning example.
Starting with Virgil van Dijk in possession, Mason Greenwood ran
towards him without hurrying his decision making or blocking off any passing angles.
Greenwood then did run towards Andrew Robertson with more intent to block off
a return pass to Van Dijk but is not intense in the press,
with Aaron Wan-Bissaka miles away in getting close to Robertson as he receives the ball. This hardly
looks like a pressing trigger where United’s team-mates squeeze the pitch to close the space.
Robertson played a fairly easy ball to Diogo Jota, with Wan-Bissaka by then very high up
the pitch without performing any valuable defensive action — meaning Victor Lindelof,
United’s right-sided centre-back, had pulled very wide to cover, thereby exposing the back four.
As Jota played the ball inside to Firmino, the space the Brazilian had between the lines
was huge, with seven United players in Liverpool’s half when Jota receives it.
With Scott McTominay and Fred already the wrong side of Firmino, the Brazilian actually
has an easy pass onto Mohamed Salah beyond Harry Maguire. Note how deep Luke Shaw is.
While he was given the tough task of tracking two Liverpool players, if he had tried to keep
a higher line with his centre-backs then Salah and Naby Keita may have been offside.
As it transpired, Shaw was given the impossible task of stopping Salah and Keita on his own,
which he was unable to do. And all too many times you see United players
running back to their own goal with the opposition in behind.
As Salah plays Keita through on goal, Liverpool’s No 8 slots it in past David de Gea but look at
United’s back four, who are more along a vertical plane than they are across a horizontal one.
It’s a mess – and this has been a pattern that has developed in the early stages of the season. Teams
were getting chances through United’s midfield all too easily which was leaving the defence exposed.
However, it’s not just the goals that stand out, as United have been given
warning sides from chances that hadn’t led to them conceding. Many of these issues described
appeared vividly in the loss to Leicester City, and regularly at other points during the season.
But returning to the numbers, United’s passes per defensive action (PPDA) serves as a proxy of
their pressing intensity, which backs up the eye test. Through the first nine Premier League games,
Solskjaer’s side were allowing the opposition to make 13.6 passes on average before making
a challenge, which ranks as the 12th highest pressing intensity in the league this season.
Ove time, with a 10-game rolling average, you can see that there has been a steady decline in
their pressing intensity dating back to the final third of last season. It’s alarming.
Captain Harry Maguire has also been criticised. It would appear that the 28-year-old is not operating
at the peak of his powers, but a closer look would suggest that Maguire has not dropped off
his output dramatically. His 3.1 “true” tackles — which includes tackles plus challenges lost plus
fouls committed — this season is as many as his previous campaigns, and his success rate in the
tackle (60 per cent) and in the air (aerial win rate 77 per cent) is as high as ever.
However, it’s revealing how often he is engaging in more proactive, front-foot
defending which reads the play and stops the attack developing at source. His 1.0 “true”
interceptions — which includes interceptions and blocked passes — per 1,000 opponent touches are
significantly lower than previous seasons at United, and the volume of aerial duels he is
engaging in (3.4 per 90) is also the lowest rate since he arrived.
Does that suggest he is avoiding getting exposed by stepping
out? Perhaps the numbers don’t paint the fullest picture,
but there is little doubt that Maguire needs to rebuild his confidence or change this new habit.
So, where to go from here? It's not clear. But these are long term trends
seemingly without a single solution.